What Would it Take To Get You to Trade Votto?

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by jojo

Deep down everyone expects a plus hitting catcher to turn into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight.

Maybe that's it. But he just strikes me as a one-hit-wonder kind of guy.

[Unassisted]

Originally Posted by klw

Votto's power not coming back and continued deterioration of his knees and someone willing to take on the salary.

If Votto remains pre-injury Votto he should remain a Red.

I was waiting to see if anyone raised this issue and surprised that it took this long. If the numbers he put up last fall are Votto's new "normal," it really removes a lot of weight from the Reds side of the scale in a potential trade.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Maybe that's it. But he just strikes me as a one-hit-wonder kind of guy.

He was awesome in the minors and has been awesome since being called up. I don't get why you'd characterize him as a one hit wonder?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by jojo

He was awesome in the minors and has been awesome since being called up. I don't get why you'd characterize him as a one hit wonder?

Yep he's a stud.. a real player any other thought is a distraction from how much he really is

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Maybe that's it. But he just strikes me as a one-hit-wonder kind of guy.

I might be watching something else because he was good from day 1 in the majors. Following up a ROY campaign with a MVP is truly impressive.

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by Unassisted

I was waiting to see if anyone raised this issue and surprised that it took this long. If the numbers he put up last fall are Votto's new "normal," it really removes a lot of weight from the Reds side of the scale in a potential trade.

I think this ought to be a valid concern. I know the consensus is going to be "wait-and-see" but when you've built your entire franchise around a player, I'm not sure giving him a season or two to bounce back is going sit well with most fans. It's fine to be patient with Votto, but patience has limits.

[reds1869]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I might be watching something else because he was good from day 1 in the majors. Following up a ROY campaign with a MVP is truly impressive.

Not to mention he was in a class of his own in college.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by jojo

He was awesome in the minors and has been awesome since being called up. I don't get why you'd characterize him as a one hit wonder?

Poor wording on my part? Flash in the pan better? It's just a gut feeling I have about the kid. No rational explanation for it. Just putting it out there is all. Considering his track record, I'm most likely 100% off base. Still feel that way though.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

I think this ought to be a valid concern. I know the consensus is going to be "wait-and-see" but when you've built your entire franchise around a player, I'm not sure giving him a season or two to bounce back is going sit well with most fans. It's fine to be patient with Votto, but patience has limits.

I'm betting he'll be fine. I had the same type of injury about a year ago. Neglected it for 6 weeks before finally seeing a doctor. Went through rehab and haven't had a problem since. And I'm not a world-class athlete with a large medical team. Obviously, each situation is unique, but it would shock me greatly if Votto isn't ready to go in spring training.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Votto is clearly the better hitter and probably a bit of a better player, but Longoria has such a friendly contract that it almost makes me question his agent. I would trade a small step down in value for a huge savings in cash. Longoria is getting $143M over the next 11 years. Votto is getting $230M over those 11 years, plus another 25 in year 12. The differences are massive. I think I could probably do better with Longoria and that extra nearly $10M a year than just Joey Votto, especially if you used that money today to lock someone up long term (be it Jay Bruce or Mat Latos to a shorter kind of deal of say 4-5 years of free agency). It is a risk, because Votto is better than Longoria, but I think it is a good risk to take.

I'm curious why you think that Votto is "probably a bit of a better player". Just looking at career to date, Longoria has averaged 7.0 WAR per 650 PA compared to Votto's 6.1 WAR per 650 PA and neither has long term injury concerns. Or perhaps you do think Longoria is a greater injury risk? Perhaps it's a function of the error bars on defensive production, as Jojo suggests?

When you add in the 2 year age "edge" Votto has and that he's starting further left on the defensive spectrum, it would seem that Longoria is a better bet to maintain his current level of production over an extended period of time. Obviously we end up in the same place, preferring to have Longoria over Votto, I just think it's a no-brainer.

[RedsBaron]

Originally Posted by Dan

I'm betting he'll be fine. I had the same type of injury about a year ago. Neglected it for 6 weeks before finally seeing a doctor. Went through rehab and haven't had a problem since. And I'm not a world-class athlete with a large medical team. Obviously, each situation is unique, but it would shock me greatly if Votto isn't ready to go in spring training.

That's my guess (hope?) as well. I expect Votto to return to his pre-injury production in 2013. It is probable that the knee problem recurs when he gets older though.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm curious why you think that Votto is "probably a bit of a better player". Just looking at career to date, Longoria has averaged 7.0 WAR per 650 PA compared to Votto's 6.1 WAR per 650 PA and neither has long term injury concerns. Or perhaps you do think Longoria is a greater injury risk? Perhaps it's a function of the error bars on defensive production, as Jojo suggests?

When you add in the 2 year age "edge" Votto has and that he's starting further left on the defensive spectrum, it would seem that Longoria is a better bet to maintain his current level of production over an extended period of time. Obviously we end up in the same place, preferring to have Longoria over Votto, I just think it's a no-brainer.

Votto is on a different level as a hitter. I will take the hitter when the players are corner guys, even if one is at first and the other at third. Jojo is kind of with me thinking about the bars on defense.

[MikeThierry]

Comparing Longoria's and Votto's WAR is a perfect example as to why WAR has some failings. Technically, Longo has averaged a higher WAR than Votto but can any sane person say that they would legitimately take Longo over Votto? There is no way I would trade Votto strait up for Longo, even taking into account contract. I've always felt WAR has not measured the true value of firstbaseman close to accurate, anyways. I cannot give that position a worse starting fielding value than an outfielder to a position that touches the ball the most besides the pitcher and catcher as well as saving a ton of errors by errand throws from other infielders. For example, I cannot give Matt Holliday a better fielding starting value (when calculating WAR) over Pujols when Pujols was playing with arguably one of the worst defensive 2B in the league a couple of years ago (Skip Schumaker) and Ryan Theriot at SS (horrible memories). WAR has it's uses but I don't think it's of great value when talking about what one could get in return for Votto. WAR simply does not tell the whole story.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

Comparing Longoria's and Votto's WAR is a perfect example as to why WAR has some failings. Technically, Longo has averaged a higher WAR than Votto but can any sane person say that they would legitimately take Longo over Votto? There is no way I would trade Votto strait up for Longo, even taking into account contract. I've always felt WAR has not measured the true value of firstbaseman close to accurate, anyways. I cannot give that position a worse starting fielding value than an outfielder to a position that touches the ball the most besides the pitcher and catcher as well as saving a ton of errors by errand throws from other infielders. For example, I cannot give Matt Holliday a better fielding starting value (when calculating WAR) over Pujols when Pujols was playing with arguably one of the worst defensive 2B in the league a couple of years ago (Skip Schumaker) and Ryan Theriot at SS (horrible memories). WAR has it's uses but I don't think it's of great value when talking about what one could get in return for Votto. WAR simply does not tell the whole story.

I think if comparing WAR for the past 3 seasons they would be of similar value. I agree with the premise of Rick's post but in terms of comparing the 2 going forward I'm not too concerned with their 2007-2009 numbers.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I think if comparing WAR for the past 3 seasons they would be of similar value. I agree with the premise of Rick's post but in terms of comparing the 2 going forward I'm not too concerned with their 2007-2009 numbers.

The thing is I don't think they are or would be of similar value and it's why I don't agree with the original post. I like Longo but to me Votto is on another planet. I've experienced this exact argument about WAR around the 2007is 2008is seasons. I've argued none stop with Phillies fans when they said Chase Utley was as valuable as Albert Pujols, because their WAR's were similar. According to Fangraphs, they're technically right. From 2007-2009, Pujols averaged 8.8 WAR seasons vs. Utley who averaged 8.1 WAR seasons. Pretty similar technically but I don't know if anyone in their right mind, outside of Philadelphia, would objectively take Chase Utley over Pujols. Pujols was/is a transcendent player where Utley was a great player. No question Utley was great in his prime but he didn't change the way opponents played the game like Pujols did. Pujols was clearly the most dominant offensive player not only during that time frame but during the decade of the 00's.

What does it have to do with Votto? Well I view Votto as the same way right now. Longo is great and would love to have him on the Cardinals. However, he doesn't change the way opponents play the game like Votto does. This is something that WAR does not take into account. As much as I admire advanced stats, there are things that those stats cannot and will not be able to quantify.