Have the Reds done enough this Winter....

[40YrRedsFan]

....to WIN the World Series? We've added Choo, Hannahan, and Donald, kept Broxton and Ludwick, traded away Stubbs, lost Navarro, Valdez, Bray, & Cairo to free agency, and might have Rolen back. The addition of Choo should improve our top of the lineup considerably over the revolving door we had there last season. But the other new acquisitions are question marks at best. Hannahan hit in the .240 range. Donald hit just above the Mendoza line at about .202.
Doesn't sound to me that these bench players are much of an upgrade over what we had last season.
I just keep asking myself if we can Win a World Series with our offense the way it is. Except for Choo in for Stubbs, we have the same lineup as last year. We had serious stretches where we couldn't score at all last year. The last month and the playoffs should be proof of that. Will Votto come back as Votto? Who knows. What about Mesoraco? He had a miserable time at the plate last year. Right now I would rate us anywhere from #6 to #9 in team power rankings. We are not there with the Nats, Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, etc. I think we need another bat in the lineup. Your thoughts?

[RedTruck]

Originally Posted by 40YrRedsFan

....to WIN the World Series? We've added Choo, Hannahan, and Donald, kept Broxton and Ludwick, traded away Stubbs, lost Navarro, Valdez, Bray, & Cairo to free agency, and might have Rolen back. The addition of Choo should improve our top of the lineup considerably over the revolving door we had there last season. But the other new acquisitions are question marks at best. Hannahan hit in the .240 range. Donald hit just above the Mendoza line at about .202.
Doesn't sound to me that these bench players are much of an upgrade over what we had last season.
I just keep asking myself if we can Win a World Series with our offense the way it is. Except for Choo in for Stubbs, we have the same lineup as last year. We had serious stretches where we couldn't score at all last year. The last month and the playoffs should be proof of that. Will Votto come back as Votto? Who knows. What about Mesoraco? He had a miserable time at the plate last year. Right now I would rate us anywhere from #6 to #9 in team power rankings. We are not there with the Nats, Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, etc. I think we need another bat in the lineup. Your thoughts?

I disagree. Adding Choo changes the WHOLE dynamic of the lineup. We had the worst lead off OBP and AVG in all of MLB. Adding a run producer like Choo is like a chain effect...and having BP be in the number 2 slot instead of Cozart (who should be in the 7th hole) should help as well.

Point is, by adding Choo and BP in the 1 and 2 spot gives Votto the opportunity to actually DRIVE in runs. So many times, SO many times, it was just Votto batting with 2 outs, because of the inability of Stubbs or Cozart to get on base.

Votto will be fine, he said he's feeling better and better.

Mesoraco? Who cares? Hannigan is surely a better catcher at this stage of the game..offensively, defensively, and just pure knowledge of pitching.

At the end of the day, we won't win by our offense. We'll win by our pitching and our bullpen and our defense.

[webbbj]

Im very interested to see how the choo addition affects BPs production. He normally been a .333 OBP guy. With more ABs w/ a runner on and w/ Votto right behind him I think his OBP could take a nice jump.

[Red Raindog]

Originally Posted by webbbj

Im very interested to see how the choo addition affects BPs production. He normally been a .333 OBP guy. With more ABs w/ a runner on and w/ Votto right behind him I think his OBP could take a nice jump.

I'm thinking the same way as you - kind of wish we had Navarro but it shouldn't be the deal breaker for the team.

[bigredmechanism]

Originally Posted by RedTruck

Point is, by adding Choo and BP in the 1 and 2 spot gives Votto the opportunity to actually DRIVE in runs. So many times, SO many times, it was just Votto batting with 2 outs, because of the inability of Stubbs or Cozart to get on base.

Bingo.

[UPRedsFan]

Just doing a little math on the impact of the improved OBP in the top 2 spots in the order. Before Phillips was inserted in the leadoff spot we had Stubbs/Cozart 1 and 2. Stubbs on base % was .277 and Cozart .288.

Assume 600 plate appearances for each and the same OBP and that equates to 338 times on base combined from the top 2 spots.

Now replace those 2 with Choo (.373 OBP) and Phillips (.321 OBP) and it's 415base runners from the top 2 spots in the order. So that's 77 more base runners for Votto over the season and 77 less outs in the lineup. Maybe another 20 - 25 rbi for Votto.

[Red Raindog]

Originally Posted by UPRedsFan

Just doing a little math on the impact of the improved OBP in the top 2 spots in the order. Before Phillips was inserted in the leadoff spot we had Stubbs/Cozart 1 and 2. Stubbs on base % was .277 and Cozart .288.

Assume 600 plate appearances for each and the same OBP and that equates to 338 times on base combined from the top 2 spots.

Now replace those 2 with Choo (.373 OBP) and Phillips (.321 OBP) and it's 415base runners from the top 2 spots in the order. So that's 77 more base runners for Votto over the season and 77 less outs in the lineup. Maybe another 20 - 25 rbi for Votto.

let's not ignore that Rolen will not be in the 4 hole for part of the year - which should impact the runs scored too.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by 40YrRedsFan

....to WIN the World Series? We've added Choo, Hannahan, and Donald, kept Broxton and Ludwick, traded away Stubbs, lost Navarro, Valdez, Bray, & Cairo to free agency, and might have Rolen back. The addition of Choo should improve our top of the lineup considerably over the revolving door we had there last season. But the other new acquisitions are question marks at best. Hannahan hit in the .240 range. Donald hit just above the Mendoza line at about .202.
Doesn't sound to me that these bench players are much of an upgrade over what we had last season.
I just keep asking myself if we can Win a World Series with our offense the way it is. Except for Choo in for Stubbs, we have the same lineup as last year. We had serious stretches where we couldn't score at all last year. The last month and the playoffs should be proof of that. Will Votto come back as Votto? Who knows. What about Mesoraco? He had a miserable time at the plate last year. Right now I would rate us anywhere from #6 to #9 in team power rankings. We are not there with the Nats, Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, etc. I think we need another bat in the lineup. Your thoughts?

Donald's .202 and Hannahan's .244 will be replacing Cairo's .176 and Valdez's .206, so they will be a 70 point improvement. Hannahan is an absolute whiz with the glove and Donald is no slouch either. No, the bench players they acquired will not put them over the top but they are definitely an improvement over what was there last year.

On top of Choo for Stubbs there is also Frazier for Rolen. Votto will be fine. Mesoraco will be better than last year. I have a hard time believing he will continue a .234 BABIP considering his minor league track record.

The teams in the World Series last year were 11th & 12th in runs scored so they don't need to be tops in the league to reach the World Series

[Fireball]

Let's not overlook the move of Chapman to the starting rotation.

Essentially what the Reds have gone this offseason is acquire a potential stud starting pitcher, trade for a GOOD leadoff hitter, and improve their bench.

They may not be the favorites to win the NL with these improvements, but they're serious contenders. This team just doesn't have any holes right now, and you can't really say that about any other NL team besides the Nationals and maybe the Dodgers.

[smixsell]

Yes, they have.

Now we just need to go out and COMPETE for it.

[drowg14]

They have done more than enough. The Giants have proven it's not about the best team, it's about getting to the playoffs. The Reds already had one of the best teams in the NL, and are now probably one of the best 3 teams in the majors IMO. They shouldn't have too much issue getting back to the playoffs with the additions they made.

And once you get to the playoffs, it's alot of luck. The Giants were not the best team in the NL. The Tigers were not the best team in the AL.

[TSJ55]

The Reds added some good pieces to an already good team. Now, they have to make the playoffs again and then man up in key spots.

Drowg was right about his first point of making the playoffs. After that it has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with production. The Giants and Tigers were the best team in their respective playoffs. Their World Series appearance is indisputable proof.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by drowg14

They shouldn't have too much issue getting back to the playoffs with the additions they made.

[SweetLou1990]

The biggest hole, IMO, is the loss of Chapman in the bullpen and therefore the use of Broxton in the bullpen. I think everyone will be paying close attention to Broxton for that reason.

But yes, the Reds will contend!

[drowg14]

Originally Posted by TSJ55

The Reds added some good pieces to an already good team. Now, they have to make the playoffs again and then man up in key spots.

Drowg was right about his first point of making the playoffs. After that it has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with production. The Giants and Tigers were the best team in their respective playoffs. Their World Series appearance is indisputable proof.

Production in a small sample size like a 5 or 7 game series is about getting "hot" at the right time. These small samples are very prone to be affected my random noise such as babip or hr/fb flucuations, or by a couple errors.

The Giants shouldn't have even gotten out of the first round. The Giants got lucky that Votto wasn't really Votto, Cueto got hurt in his first inning which messed with Latos' scheduled starts and cost us our best pitcher, and that Leake had to be called in to start a game to replace him. I remember in game 3, the Reds first inning (I think?) was going real well, until a baserunning error which killed a rally. And since both teams had good pitching, the 1 or 2 runs which could have scored changed the entire dynamic of the game, just as Cueto getting hurt changed the entire dynamic of the series.

I'm sure the Reds also had some luck fall there way as well, but my point is that playoffs in any sport have alot of error involved with them. The longer the playoffs are, the less likely you are to have the actual "best team" become the champion. This is why the NBA/NHL playoffs are such a joke. They have a long (82 game) season, and yet over half of the teams (16/30) make the playoffs. This is why I am so against the addition of the second wild card. Just adds more randomness/luck to an already hectic equation.