Predict their stats for 2013 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

RedEye · 12-20-2012, 01:05 AM

It's getting to be the time of year where we're desperate for more to discuss. So... predict the 2013 stats for the Reds starting rotation and starting eight position players. List 'em in the order you think they will appear in Dusty's standard lineup and pitching staff, as I do here (if you'd prefer to use more up to date stats, obviously feel free -- I'm too tired to think that way at the moment).

Shin-Soo Choo .300, 25 HR, 25 SB
Brandon Phillips .280, 20 HR, 27 SB
Joey Votto .340, 28 HR, 122 RBI
Ryan Ludwick .250, 30 HR, 97 RBI
Jay Bruce .255, 37 HR, 101 RBI
Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
Zack Cozart .235, 12 HR, 43 RBI
Ryan Hanigan .276, 3 HR, 31 RBI

Mat Latos 18-10, 3.15 ERA, 205 K
Homer Bailey 15-7, 3.77 ERA, 182 K
Johnny Cueto 12-14, 3.93 ERA, 165 K
Aroldis Chapman 9-4, 4.14 ERA, 207 K, 18 SV
Bronson Arroyo 7-12, 4.89 ERA, 123 K

DGullett35 · 12-20-2012, 02:05 AM

Choo- .274, 18HR, 23SB
BP- .291, 24HR, 20SB
Votto- .338, 31HR, 102RBI, 52 doubles
Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 107RBI
Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

Cueto- 7-5, 3.63 68K
Latos- 18-7, 2.98 212K
Bailey- 19-10, 3.47 201K
Arroyo- 12-11, 3.95 127K
Leake- 9-7, 4.04 84K
Chapman- 7-5, 4.27, I think he starts in the pen and dominates but gets thrown into the rotation at some point and struggles just a bit before picking it up and helping Latos and Bailey carry us into the playoffs.

Broxton- 5-4, 2.59, 38saves
and just for fun: Hannahan- .252, 11HR, 24RBI and ends up with about the same amount of starts at 3rd as Frazier.

RedEye · 12-20-2012, 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DGullett35

Choo- .274, 18HR, 23SB
BP- .291, 24HR, 20SB
Votto- .338, 31HR, 102RBI, 52 doubles
Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 107RBI
Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

Cueto- 7-5, 3.63 68K
Latos- 18-7, 2.98 212K
Bailey- 19-10, 3.47 201K
Arroyo- 12-11, 3.95 127K
Leake- 9-7, 4.04 84K
Chapman- 7-5, 4.27, I think he starts in the pen and dominates but gets thrown into the rotation at some point and struggles just a bit before picking it up and helping Latos and Bailey carry us into the playoffs.

Broxton- 5-4, 2.59, 38saves
and just for fun: Hannahan- .252, 11HR, 24RBI and ends up with about the same amount of starts at 3rd as Frazier.

I assume Cueto gets hurt in this prediction?

mattfeet · 12-20-2012, 08:43 AM

Choo- .294, 16HR, 23SB
BP- .271, 24HR, 15SB
Votto- .328, 25HR, 105RBI, 52 doubles
Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 97RBI
Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

I simply do not see BP getting 20+ SB's after not having that many since 2009.

mbgrayson · 12-20-2012, 09:30 AM

Bill James Handbook 2013 (Published in October):

Choo: .283/.374/.815, 16 HR, 18 SBs
BP: .277/.327/.759, 20 HRs, 16 SBs
Votto: .312/.422/.960, 27 HRs, 8 SBs
Ludwick: .254/.327/.776, 19 HRs, 1 SB
Bruce: .263/.342/.860, 36 HRs, 9 SBs
Frazier: .263/.325/.802, 15 HRs, 6 SBs
Hanigan: .275/.367/.725, 3 HRs, 0 SBs
Cozart: .260/.308/.723, 15 HRs, 9 SBs

Pitchers:
Cueto: 14-10, 3.52, 169 Ks
Latos: 15-8, 3.16, 194 Ks
Chapman: 4-3, 2.42, 98 Ks, 48 saves
Bailey: 12-12, 3.86, 172 Ks
Arroyo: 12-12, 3.88, 136 Ks
Leake: 9-11, 4.15, 119 Ks
Marshall: 4-3, 3.05, 57 Ks
Broxton: 4-3, 2.90, 71 Ks, 20 saves

RedEye · 12-20-2012, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattfeet

Choo- .294, 16HR, 23SB
BP- .271, 24HR, 15SB
Votto- .328, 25HR, 105RBI, 52 doubles
Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 97RBI
Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI
Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI
Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI,
Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB

I simply do not see BP getting 20+ SB's after not having that many since 2009.

I sure hope you are right about Bruce!

WVRedsFan · 12-20-2012, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedEye

It's getting to be the time of year where we're desperate for more to discuss. So... predict the 2013 stats for the Reds starting rotation and starting eight position players. List 'em in the order you think they will appear in Dusty's standard lineup and pitching staff, as I do here (if you'd prefer to use more up to date stats, obviously feel free -- I'm too tired to think that way at the moment).

Shin-Soo Choo .300, 25 HR, 25 SB
Brandon Phillips .280, 20 HR, 27 SB
Joey Votto .340, 28 HR, 122 RBI
Ryan Ludwick .250, 30 HR, 97 RBI
Jay Bruce .255, 37 HR, 101 RBI
Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
Zack Cozart .235, 12 HR, 43 RBI
Ryan Hanigan .276, 3 HR, 31 RBI

Mat Latos 18-10, 3.15 ERA, 205 K
Homer Bailey 15-7, 3.77 ERA, 182 K
Johnny Cueto 12-14, 3.93 ERA, 165 K
Aroldis Chapman 9-4, 4.14 ERA, 207 K, 18 SV
Bronson Arroyo 7-12, 4.89 ERA, 123 K

Just curious...why the down year for Cueto? The rest I agree with except I think Votto will see a power spike this year

*BaseClogger* · 12-20-2012, 11:46 AM

Off the top of my head because it's more fun that way:

Hanigan - .270/.340/.360
Mesoraco - .250/.320/.410

Votto - .340/.470/.550
Phillips - .300/.340/.420
Cozart - .240/.290/.400
Frazier - .250/.310/.430
Hannahan - .250/.310/380
Donald - .240/.290/.330
Burriss - .230/.280/.300

Ludwick - .250/.320/.440
Choo - .280/.370/.440
Bruce - .260/.340/.540
Heisey - .260/.310/.400
Paul - .240/.300/.380
Hamilton - .250/.320/.330

Cueto - 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 150 Ks
Latos - 210 IP, 3.40 ERA, 190 Ks
Bailey - 150 IP, 3.70 ERA, 120 Ks
Arroyo - 200 IP, 4.20 ERA, 140 Ks
Chapman (SP) - 80 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks
Leake (SP) - 120 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks
Villareal (SP) - 10 IP, 6.00 ERA, 5 Ks
Corcino - 10 IP, 5.00 ERA, 8 Ks

Broxton - 40 IP, 3.50 ERA, 35 Ks
Marshall - 70 IP, 2.80 ERA, 65 Ks
Hoover - 60 IP, 2.50 ERA, 70 Ks
Massett - 20 IP, 5.50 ERA, 15 Ks
Simon - 60 IP, 3.50 ERA, 60 Ks
Gorzelanny - 30 IP, 3.30 ERA, 25 Ks
Chapman (RP) - 30 IP, 2.80 ERA, 40 Ks
Leake (RP) - 20 IP, 3.70 ERA, 15 Ks
Ondrusek - 15 IP, 4.30 ERA, 10 Ks
Cingrani - 25 IP, 1.50 ERA, 25 Ks
Lotzkar - 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 8 Ks
Villareal (RP) - 5 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4 Ks

I've got no idea if those innings add up and I don't care so don't call me out on it. Somebody is going to end up getting some PAs in the outfield because of injuries in the first half of the year, but I'm not sure who gets those PAs at this point. I'm predicting we sign Gorzellany (a guy can dream) and that Arredondo and Redmond are casualties of late Spring trades...

RedEye · 12-20-2012, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Just curious...why the down year for Cueto? The rest I agree with except I think Votto will see a power spike this year

No particular reason other than I have a feeling that Lato and Bailey are up and Cueto is down in 2013. Pretty scientific.

DGullett35 · 12-21-2012, 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedEye

I assume Cueto gets hurt in this prediction?

yes

powersackers · 12-23-2012, 11:58 AM

Choo OPS+ 118
Phillips OPS+ 105
Votto OPS+ 140
Ludwick OPS+ 102
Bruce OPS+ 127
Frazier OPS+ 98
Cozart OPS+ 90
Hanigan OPS+ 77
Mesaroco OPS+ 115

Cueto ERA+ 130
Latos ERA+ 120
Bailey ERA+ 105
Arroyo ERA+ 88
Chapman ERA+ 135
Broxton ERA+ 140

The Voice of IH · 12-23-2012, 07:13 PM

I am excited to see the boost that Choo gets playing at Great American Ball Park.

I imagine that it is going to be Ryan Ludwick-esq but he is starting at a better spot than Ludwick did.

REDblooded · 12-27-2012, 12:42 AM

Shin-Soo Choo .308, 24 HR,18 SB
Brandon Phillips .272, 17 HR, 15 SB
Joey Votto .329, 35 HR, 119 RBI
Ryan Ludwick .269, 26 HR, 86 RBI
Jay Bruce .272, 39 HR, 112 RBI
Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI
Zack Cozart .256, 17 HR, 58 RBI
Ryan Hanigan .276, 6 HR, 38 RBI

Mat Latos 17-8, 3.11 ERA, 199 K
Homer Bailey 18-9, 3.65 ERA, 171 K
Johnny Cueto 19-8, 3.25 ERA, 182 K
Aroldis Chapman 12-8, 3.82 ERA, 225 K
Bronson Arroyo 8-10, 4.74 ERA, 114 K

OnBaseMachine · 12-27-2012, 02:08 AM

Shin-Soo Choo - .305/.400/.485, 20 HR
Brandon Phillips - .300/.340/.445, 18 HR
Joey Votto - .345/.465/.550 - 31 HR
Ryan Ludwick - .270/.335/.500, 25 HR
Jay Bruce - .270/.350/.540 - 37 HR
Todd Frazier - .275/.335/.480 - 22 HR
Ryan Hanigan - .280/.350/.380 - 4 HR
Zack Cozart -.265/.315/.400 - 16 HR

Devin Mesoraco - .250/.310/.450 - 14 HR

Mat Latos - 215 IP, 205 K, 2.85 ERA
Johnny Cueto - 205 IP, 175 K, 2.90 ERA
Aroldis Chapman - 150 IP, 195 K, 3.45 ERA
Homer Bailey - 200 IP, 170 K, 3.50 ERA
Bronson Arroyo - 200 IP, 140 K, 4.15 ERA

mth123 · 12-27-2012, 02:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Shin-Soo Choo - .305/.400/.485, 20 HR
Brandon Phillips - .300/.340/.445, 18 HR
Joey Votto - .345/.465/.550 - 31 HR
Ryan Ludwick - .270/.335/.500, 25 HR
Jay Bruce - .270/.350/.540 - 37 HR
Todd Frazier - .275/.335/.480 - 22 HR
Ryan Hanigan - .280/.350/.380 - 4 HR
Zack Cozart -.265/.315/.400 - 16 HR

Devin Mesoraco - .250/.310/.450 - 14 HR

Mat Latos - 215 IP, 205 K, 2.85 ERA
Johnny Cueto - 205 IP, 175 K, 2.90 ERA
Aroldis Chapman - 150 IP, 195 K, 3.45 ERA
Homer Bailey - 200 IP, 170 K, 3.50 ERA
Bronson Arroyo - 200 IP, 140 K, 4.15 ERA

This looks pretty close to what I'd predict. My only differences would be fewer innings and a little more struggles for Cueto. 190IP and 3.75 ERA and I think Chapman is going to struggle multiple times through the order. 140 IP, 150K and 4.75 ERA. He picks up 10 saves with an August move back to the pen.

I'll add Mike Leake with 17 Starts, 130 IP and a 4.15 ERA.

12-20-2012, 01:05 AM	#1
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Moving to Atlanta in July Posts: 4,430	Predict their stats for 2013 It's getting to be the time of year where we're desperate for more to discuss. So... predict the 2013 stats for the Reds starting rotation and starting eight position players. List 'em in the order you think they will appear in Dusty's standard lineup and pitching staff, as I do here (if you'd prefer to use more up to date stats, obviously feel free -- I'm too tired to think that way at the moment). Shin-Soo Choo .300, 25 HR, 25 SB Brandon Phillips .280, 20 HR, 27 SB Joey Votto .340, 28 HR, 122 RBI Ryan Ludwick .250, 30 HR, 97 RBI Jay Bruce .255, 37 HR, 101 RBI Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI Zack Cozart .235, 12 HR, 43 RBI Ryan Hanigan .276, 3 HR, 31 RBI Mat Latos 18-10, 3.15 ERA, 205 K Homer Bailey 15-7, 3.77 ERA, 182 K Johnny Cueto 12-14, 3.93 ERA, 165 K Aroldis Chapman 9-4, 4.14 ERA, 207 K, 18 SV Bronson Arroyo 7-12, 4.89 ERA, 123 K __________________ "It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers Last edited by RedEye; 12-20-2012 at 01:08 AM.

12-20-2012, 02:05 AM	#2
DGullett35 Have Faith In Dusty Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: O-H-I-O Posts: 712	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Choo- .274, 18HR, 23SB BP- .291, 24HR, 20SB Votto- .338, 31HR, 102RBI, 52 doubles Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 107RBI Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI, Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB Cueto- 7-5, 3.63 68K Latos- 18-7, 2.98 212K Bailey- 19-10, 3.47 201K Arroyo- 12-11, 3.95 127K Leake- 9-7, 4.04 84K Chapman- 7-5, 4.27, I think he starts in the pen and dominates but gets thrown into the rotation at some point and struggles just a bit before picking it up and helping Latos and Bailey carry us into the playoffs. Broxton- 5-4, 2.59, 38saves and just for fun: Hannahan- .252, 11HR, 24RBI and ends up with about the same amount of starts at 3rd as Frazier. __________________ "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

12-20-2012, 08:43 AM	#4
mattfeet Moderator Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,377	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Choo- .294, 16HR, 23SB BP- .271, 24HR, 15SB Votto- .328, 25HR, 105RBI, 52 doubles Ludwick- .253, 33HR, 97RBI Bruce- .269, 44HR, 111RBI Frazier- .251 14HR, 35RBI Hanigan- .277, 5HR, 27RBI, Cozart- .249, 18HR, 29 RBI, 20SB I simply do not see BP getting 20+ SB's after not having that many since 2009.

12-20-2012, 09:30 AM	#5
mbgrayson Red's fan Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Montana Posts: 1,933	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Bill James Handbook 2013 (Published in October): Choo: .283/.374/.815, 16 HR, 18 SBs BP: .277/.327/.759, 20 HRs, 16 SBs Votto: .312/.422/.960, 27 HRs, 8 SBs Ludwick: .254/.327/.776, 19 HRs, 1 SB Bruce: .263/.342/.860, 36 HRs, 9 SBs Frazier: .263/.325/.802, 15 HRs, 6 SBs Hanigan: .275/.367/.725, 3 HRs, 0 SBs Cozart: .260/.308/.723, 15 HRs, 9 SBs Pitchers: Cueto: 14-10, 3.52, 169 Ks Latos: 15-8, 3.16, 194 Ks Chapman: 4-3, 2.42, 98 Ks, 48 saves Bailey: 12-12, 3.86, 172 Ks Arroyo: 12-12, 3.88, 136 Ks Leake: 9-11, 4.15, 119 Ks Marshall: 4-3, 3.05, 57 Ks Broxton: 4-3, 2.90, 71 Ks, 20 saves __________________ __________________ "I genuinely like this team. I like the vibe and spirit of this team. This is just the beginning." Dusty on 2/19/12.

12-20-2012, 11:46 AM	#8
BaseClogger WOOOOO!!! Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 6,077	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Off the top of my head because it's more fun that way: Hanigan - .270/.340/.360 Mesoraco - .250/.320/.410 Votto - .340/.470/.550 Phillips - .300/.340/.420 Cozart - .240/.290/.400 Frazier - .250/.310/.430 Hannahan - .250/.310/380 Donald - .240/.290/.330 Burriss - .230/.280/.300 Ludwick - .250/.320/.440 Choo - .280/.370/.440 Bruce - .260/.340/.540 Heisey - .260/.310/.400 Paul - .240/.300/.380 Hamilton - .250/.320/.330 Cueto - 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 150 Ks Latos - 210 IP, 3.40 ERA, 190 Ks Bailey - 150 IP, 3.70 ERA, 120 Ks Arroyo - 200 IP, 4.20 ERA, 140 Ks Chapman (SP) - 80 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks Leake (SP) - 120 IP, 4.20 ERA, 80 Ks Villareal (SP) - 10 IP, 6.00 ERA, 5 Ks Corcino - 10 IP, 5.00 ERA, 8 Ks Broxton - 40 IP, 3.50 ERA, 35 Ks Marshall - 70 IP, 2.80 ERA, 65 Ks Hoover - 60 IP, 2.50 ERA, 70 Ks Massett - 20 IP, 5.50 ERA, 15 Ks Simon - 60 IP, 3.50 ERA, 60 Ks Gorzelanny - 30 IP, 3.30 ERA, 25 Ks Chapman (RP) - 30 IP, 2.80 ERA, 40 Ks Leake (RP) - 20 IP, 3.70 ERA, 15 Ks Ondrusek - 15 IP, 4.30 ERA, 10 Ks Cingrani - 25 IP, 1.50 ERA, 25 Ks Lotzkar - 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 8 Ks Villareal (RP) - 5 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4 Ks I've got no idea if those innings add up and I don't care so don't call me out on it. Somebody is going to end up getting some PAs in the outfield because of injuries in the first half of the year, but I'm not sure who gets those PAs at this point. I'm predicting we sign Gorzellany (a guy can dream) and that Arredondo and Redmond are casualties of late Spring trades... __________________ "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

12-23-2012, 11:58 AM	#11
powersackers Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 761	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Choo OPS+ 118 Phillips OPS+ 105 Votto OPS+ 140 Ludwick OPS+ 102 Bruce OPS+ 127 Frazier OPS+ 98 Cozart OPS+ 90 Hanigan OPS+ 77 Mesaroco OPS+ 115 Cueto ERA+ 130 Latos ERA+ 120 Bailey ERA+ 105 Arroyo ERA+ 88 Chapman ERA+ 135 Broxton ERA+ 140 __________________ Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

12-23-2012, 07:13 PM	#12
The Voice of IH Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: The University of Akron Posts: 1,105	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 I am excited to see the boost that Choo gets playing at Great American Ball Park. I imagine that it is going to be Ryan Ludwick-esq but he is starting at a better spot than Ludwick did. __________________ Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know! Numbers behind the Debate: Small Ball vs. Long Ball

12-27-2012, 12:42 AM	#13
REDblooded Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,126	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Shin-Soo Choo .308, 24 HR,18 SB Brandon Phillips .272, 17 HR, 15 SB Joey Votto .329, 35 HR, 119 RBI Ryan Ludwick .269, 26 HR, 86 RBI Jay Bruce .272, 39 HR, 112 RBI Todd Frazier .265, 23 HR, 67 RBI Zack Cozart .256, 17 HR, 58 RBI Ryan Hanigan .276, 6 HR, 38 RBI Mat Latos 17-8, 3.11 ERA, 199 K Homer Bailey 18-9, 3.65 ERA, 171 K Johnny Cueto 19-8, 3.25 ERA, 182 K Aroldis Chapman 12-8, 3.82 ERA, 225 K Bronson Arroyo 8-10, 4.74 ERA, 114 K __________________ 2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays) Bryce Brentz Brandon Workman Kris Bryant Matt Lipka Rick Hague

12-27-2012, 02:08 AM	#14
OnBaseMachine Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 34,655	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Shin-Soo Choo - .305/.400/.485, 20 HR Brandon Phillips - .300/.340/.445, 18 HR Joey Votto - .345/.465/.550 - 31 HR Ryan Ludwick - .270/.335/.500, 25 HR Jay Bruce - .270/.350/.540 - 37 HR Todd Frazier - .275/.335/.480 - 22 HR Ryan Hanigan - .280/.350/.380 - 4 HR Zack Cozart -.265/.315/.400 - 16 HR Devin Mesoraco - .250/.310/.450 - 14 HR Mat Latos - 215 IP, 205 K, 2.85 ERA Johnny Cueto - 205 IP, 175 K, 2.90 ERA Aroldis Chapman - 150 IP, 195 K, 3.45 ERA Homer Bailey - 200 IP, 170 K, 3.50 ERA Bronson Arroyo - 200 IP, 140 K, 4.15 ERA __________________ I miss Adam Dunn.

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