Predict their stats for 2013 - Page 2 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

RedsManRick · 12-27-2012, 09:02 AM

Please feel free to use my Reds Projection Calculator where you can enter projections for the full 25 man roster: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...zBQZ0lUU2lUZ0E

My first-pass, optimistic (no injuries) projection has them at 98-64. Go to town on the RZ sheets. I won't put in RBI or ERA, but here are some of the stats I projected (rounded for easy consumption).

Code:

Choo	  .290/.385/.475, 20 HR
Phillips  .275/.325/.410, 15 HR
Votto	  .305/.425/.575, 30 HR
Ludwick	  .255/.320/.465, 20 HR
Bruce	  .260/.345/.520, 40 HR
Frazier	  .255/.315/.450, 20 HR
Hanigan   .265/.365/.330,  2 HR
Cozart	  .245/.300/.391, 15 HR

Mesoraco  .255/.315/.420, 10 HR
Heisey    .250/.305/.455, 15 HR


		  IP	K	FIP	
SP1	Cueto	  210	160	3.50
SP2	Latos	  220	210	3.55
SP3	Bailey	  200	165	3.80
SP4	Arroyo	  200	120	4.45
SP5	Chapman	  140	160	3.00
LR	Ondrusek   20	12	4.70
MR	Simon	   50	40	3.90
MR	Arredondo  60	60	3.90
MR	Hoover	   60	60	3.45
SU	Marshall   60	70	2.20
SU	LeCure	   60	60	3.20
CL	Broxton	   60	50	3.30
P	Leake	   80	55	4.10
P	Cingrani   20	15	4.30

RedEye · 12-27-2012, 10:22 PM

I feel like even the most 'reasonable' predictions we put up here for the lineup are like fantasy baseball good. Are we crazy and too optimistic or could they really be this good?

Superdude · 12-28-2012, 03:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedEye

I feel like even the most 'reasonable' predictions we put up here for the lineup are like fantasy baseball good. Are we crazy and too optimistic or could they really be this good?

That lineup just makes me giddy every time I look at it, and then I remember we had arguably the best pitching staff in the league last year. Needless to say, this offseason is brutal. Bring on April already!

Scrap Irony · 12-28-2012, 09:21 AM

The best thing about the Red lineup is the lack of holes.

Looking at the lineup position by position, the following players were below average offensively in 2012 (according to wRC+):
C Hanigan/ Mesoraco (21)
SS Cozart (21)

Frazier (12) and Bruce (13) were right around league average at 3B and RF respectively, Ludwick was a Top 10 performer (8), and Votto (1), Choo (3), and Phillips (4) were Top Five for their positions. Reds pitchers ranked third in the National League in wRC+ as well.

traderumor · 12-28-2012, 03:52 PM

Using RMR calculator, I got the same bottom line results--98-64. Plugging Choo into that lineup added over 100 runs to the bottom line. So even with a little pitching regression, Walt shored up the lineup enough to ensure similar expected results. Of course, also figuring a full year of Votto and all else being pretty much status quo adds to the bottom line, with Bruce improving and even with some regression by Ludwick, this is a solid roster.

Stating the obvious, but good to churn through the numbers and see it. At the risk of being crass, watching the offense day after day was like a bad case of constipation with the top of the order problems. It now appears to be free flowing with a lot more Choo

12-27-2012, 09:02 AM	#16
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,903	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Please feel free to use my Reds Projection Calculator where you can enter projections for the full 25 man roster: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...zBQZ0lUU2lUZ0E My first-pass, optimistic (no injuries) projection has them at 98-64. Go to town on the RZ sheets. I won't put in RBI or ERA, but here are some of the stats I projected (rounded for easy consumption). Code: Choo .290/.385/.475, 20 HR Phillips .275/.325/.410, 15 HR Votto .305/.425/.575, 30 HR Ludwick .255/.320/.465, 20 HR Bruce .260/.345/.520, 40 HR Frazier .255/.315/.450, 20 HR Hanigan .265/.365/.330, 2 HR Cozart .245/.300/.391, 15 HR Mesoraco .255/.315/.420, 10 HR Heisey .250/.305/.455, 15 HR IP K FIP SP1 Cueto 210 160 3.50 SP2 Latos 220 210 3.55 SP3 Bailey 200 165 3.80 SP4 Arroyo 200 120 4.45 SP5 Chapman 140 160 3.00 LR Ondrusek 20 12 4.70 MR Simon 50 40 3.90 MR Arredondo 60 60 3.90 MR Hoover 60 60 3.45 SU Marshall 60 70 2.20 SU LeCure 60 60 3.20 CL Broxton 60 50 3.30 P Leake 80 55 4.10 P Cingrani 20 15 4.30 __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance. Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-27-2012 at 11:51 AM.

12-27-2012, 10:22 PM	#17
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Miami, Florida Posts: 4,387	I feel like even the most 'reasonable' predictions we put up here for the lineup are like fantasy baseball good. Are we crazy and too optimistic or could they really be this good? __________________ "It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers

12-28-2012, 09:21 AM	#19
Scrap Irony Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: Bedford, KY Posts: 8,992	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 The best thing about the Red lineup is the lack of holes. Looking at the lineup position by position, the following players were below average offensively in 2012 (according to wRC+): C Hanigan/ Mesoraco (21) SS Cozart (21) Frazier (12) and Bruce (13) were right around league average at 3B and RF respectively, Ludwick was a Top 10 performer (8), and Votto (1), Choo (3), and Phillips (4) were Top Five for their positions. Reds pitchers ranked third in the National League in wRC+ as well. __________________ "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat." -- Christy Matthewson "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot." -- Leo Durocher

12-28-2012, 03:52 PM	#20
traderumor Unsolicited Opinions Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Right Down Broadway Posts: 17,630	Re: Predict their stats for 2013 Using RMR calculator, I got the same bottom line results--98-64. Plugging Choo into that lineup added over 100 runs to the bottom line. So even with a little pitching regression, Walt shored up the lineup enough to ensure similar expected results. Of course, also figuring a full year of Votto and all else being pretty much status quo adds to the bottom line, with Bruce improving and even with some regression by Ludwick, this is a solid roster. Stating the obvious, but good to churn through the numbers and see it. At the risk of being crass, watching the offense day after day was like a bad case of constipation with the top of the order problems. It now appears to be free flowing with a lot more Choo __________________ Can't win with 'em Can't win without 'em Last edited by traderumor; 12-28-2012 at 03:56 PM.

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