Who is Redszone's #8 prospect? 2013

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Yep.

I was a big fan of Soto back when there was some hope he might play SS/3B. Now that it looks like he isn't capable of playing any position well, I am less enthusiastic. Hopefully, he'll put up monster numbers the second time through AAA and fool some rival GM into believing he can be their long-term solution at 1B, netting the Reds a nice little return in a deadline trade.

The funny thing is he still looks really athletic, but every report makes his speed sound like a late career Sean Casey. I still think he has some scary bat speed, but as a liability everywhere but first base and some plate discipline concerns, I don't know how much value he has at this point.

[Scrap Irony]

If Soto can go .270/ .340/ .560 in AAA, he'd be in line to become a solid regular starter at age 24. He'd by no means be old for AAA or prospect status.

[Kc61]

These polls (including my own votes) are heavily influenced by last year's stats. Presumably, Reds scouts and FO have more sophisticated ways of measuring a prospect's status.

Soto was 23 years old in AAA last season. He played on a weak team and his numbers weren't that great

But he could easily OPS .900 next season at AAA with a bit more experience and hopefully a better surrounding offensive cast.

I'll probably vote for Soto soon, but he could be a top five prospect in this system. He's a near major league ready power hitter with defensive limitations. We'll know much more in another year.

[j_m_t_us]

Originally Posted by 19braves77

Thing is with Yorman he probably gets 3 more years of failure where someone like Gullion has to do everything just right without injury to reach his ceiling of a number 3 starter. So I voted Yorman.

Stats over 4 years are pretty mediocre! I doubt he will get 3 more years.

[americanoutlaw1]

Within a few years i can see Soto putting up numbers comparable to Mark Trumbo. 25-30 homers hittting between 260-270. Low OBP above average slugging and no real defensive home or value like Trumbo. He may wind up a little closer to Trumbo's 2011 than 2012 but seems entirely possible to me

[Scrap Irony]

Odd that, for the most part, there haven't been many close votes so far.

I expected many more detailed explanations than what's happened.

Is that because we're all pretty much just guessing, because the Red minor league system currently sucks, or because almost everyone is simply following suit in agreement?

[americanoutlaw1]

I have agreed with literally every pick so far and haven't felt the need to justify my choice, until here when I chose Yorman. I was actually surprised how "close" the first two votes were- and thats saying something considering they each won by something like an 80% margin. But i think the minimal discussion and explanations are due in large part to the fact that the top 6 are pretty distinct and i think generally accepted, with Travieso and Winker being pretty interchangable. These next 15 or so should begin to get fairly interesting and I fully expect the victory margins to shrink considerably while the discussion as to who chose who and why becomes more prevelant.

[camisadelgolf]

I disagree quite a bit with the Henry Rodriguez pick. I like him as a prospect and think he can become very serviceable, but I expect a higher ceiling out of a top-10 prospect.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I disagree quite a bit with the Henry Rodriguez pick. I like him as a prospect and think he can become very serviceable, but I expect a higher ceiling out of a top-10 prospect.

I see Rodriguez as a fairly dependable performer with a plus hit tool ("legitimate bat" according to John Sickels), but questions about his work ethic/ head and defense. Before the hand injury, Rodriguez once again was killing the ball. After the hand injury, you really have to take his numbers with a grain of salt. A lifetime minor league slash line of .303/ .350/ .431 with all peripherals going the right direction (ie, better BA, more power, better patience) until a hand injury that truncated his last season? A 22-year-old going for a .350 BA in an offense-sapping AA league and home park? Versatility that means he can play three spots on the infield? Switch-hitter? Solid approach at the plate with few Ks?

There's an awful lot to like there.

The questions on Rodriguez are make-up related, not ceiling. He needs to get in better shape. He needs to take the game more seriously. He needs to put as much effort into defense as he puts into offense.

If he can do those things, he'll most likely be a Placido Polanco for the Reds-- early career utility guy capable of giving you innings at multiple positions while hitting around league average as he matures and receives playing time. He might give you a couple All Star berths, as Polanco did for Detroit and Philadelphia. He might even go all Bill Madlock (the minor league numbers are similar) at his ceiling. And his floor is as a Miguel Cairo clone.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I see Rodriguez as a fairly dependable performer with a plus hit tool ("legitimate bat" according to John Sickels), but questions about his work ethic/ head and defense. Before the hand injury, Rodriguez once again was killing the ball. After the hand injury, you really have to take his numbers with a grain of salt. A lifetime minor league slash line of .303/ .350/ .431 with all peripherals going the right direction (ie, better BA, more power, better patience) until a hand injury that truncated his last season? A 22-year-old going for a .350 BA in an offense-sapping AA league and home park? Versatility that means he can play three spots on the infield? Switch-hitter? Solid approach at the plate with few Ks?

There's an awful lot to like there.

The questions on Rodriguez are make-up related, not ceiling. He needs to get in better shape. He needs to take the game more seriously. He needs to put as much effort into defense as he puts into offense.

If he can do those things, he'll most likely be a Placido Polanco for the Reds-- early career utility guy capable of giving you innings at multiple positions while hitting around league average as he matures and receives playing time. He might give you a couple All Star berths, as Polanco did for Detroit and Philadelphia. He might even go all Bill Madlock (the minor league numbers are similar) at his ceiling. And his floor is as a Miguel Cairo clone.

Not a bad analysis. I was thinking more like Johnny Ray as a best case but I get a D'Angelo Jimenez vibe from H-Rod and his .600ish OPS at AAA so far is enough to drop him down to the 10 to 15 range for me.

I had Guillon at 7 and would probably go with Soto, Lutz, Chad Rogers and maybe Y-Rod ahead of H-Rod though I'm not sure of the order. I need more info on some of the younger pitchers like Cisco, Romano, Langfield and Magurian. If I knew more, those guys might be the next guys in line.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Kc61

These polls (including my own votes) are heavily influenced by last year's stats. Presumably, Reds scouts and FO have more sophisticated ways of measuring a prospect's status.

Soto was 23 years old in AAA last season. He played on a weak team and his numbers weren't that great

But he could easily OPS .900 next season at AAA with a bit more experience and hopefully a better surrounding offensive cast.

I'll probably vote for Soto soon, but he could be a top five prospect in this system. He's a near major league ready power hitter with defensive limitations. We'll know much more in another year.

His 2012 was a lot like his 2010, minus some power, which LOU is said to sapp. He still had 30 doubles, too. Not sure I'm sold on Soto. He'd need a break with the Astros or somewhere like that.

I stayed with SMB, but really also liked Dan Langfield and Donald Lutz. I think Lutz probably deserves it more on record, but I like SMB's great athleticism and the fact he's at 3b. FWIW, it seems the Reds are high on Lutz and I think he gets the Juan Francisco treatment - an earlier callup than expected.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I disagree quite a bit with the Henry Rodriguez pick. I like him as a prospect and think he can become very serviceable, but I expect a higher ceiling out of a top-10 prospect.

I looked back over his history and he's hit everywhere for average, and even some power. I am not a believer in the power playing up for a while, if at all, and think that unless he's rock solid at 3b he'll struggle to get enough ab's. Nonetheless, if the hit tool is real, there's got to be room for a .300 hitter on a mlb roster, I just don't know if it's with the Reds. In some sense, you can see the Reds keeping him in AAA through 2014 like they did with Frazier just for depth.

[chicoruiz]

I was thinking more like Johnny Ray as a best case but I get a D'Angelo Jimenez vibe from H-Rod and his .600ish OPS at AAA

I was thinking his upside might be Jeff Keppinger-ish if he has his head on straight.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I looked back over his history and he's hit everywhere for average, and even some power. I am not a believer in the power playing up for a while, if at all, and think that unless he's rock solid at 3b he'll struggle to get enough ab's. Nonetheless, if the hit tool is real, there's got to be room for a .300 hitter on a mlb roster, I just don't know if it's with the Reds. In some sense, you can see the Reds keeping him in AAA through 2014 like they did with Frazier just for depth.

He also plays an adequate 2B, which doubles his chances of getting playing time. All it takes is one injury.

[Benihana]

Guillon then Y-Rod for me.