The Case For: Chris Heisey

[Scrap Irony]

2012 Highlights:
Heisey was really mercurial, struggling in April, June, and September, to the tune of a Stubbs-ian 63 OPS+ in this three months. However, in May, June, and August, Heisey's OPS+ ballooned to 135. Heisey couldn't get out of his own way, seemingly, as every time he was handed a platoon job (either in LF or CF), he began to struggle.

The Case for Chris Heisey:

1. He can play all three OF positions.
Heisey's a better glove man than Xavier Paul. In fact, he profiles (according to UZR) as an above average defender at all three spots. Since the Reds seem intent on trying some combination of Choo and/ or Bruce in CF this season, Heisey will probably see more time as a defensive replacement late in games. (Especially after pinch hitting for the pitcher or catcher.)

2. He's got pop.
Two years ago, Heisey popped 18 homers on his way to a slugging-dependent 116 wRC+. Last year, his power dipped as he focused on finding more contact (his K rate dropped four percent). However, he seemed to be pressing both early and late; this is corroborated by his slipping BB rate. Last year's 100 point drop in ISO power is likely a blip, as he's never struggled that much to hit for power in his professional career.

3. He's league average-- and that ain't bad.
Fourth outfielders don't often hit well enough to supplant regular outfielders. Or their gloves are so poor that they give away whatever value they might earn with the bat. For example, last season, only 7 NL players-- Roger Bernadina, Scott Hairston, Matt Carpenter, Chris Denorfia, Jesus Guzman, Tyler Colvin, and Eric Young-- had an OPS+ number above Heisey's career 99 mark.

Of those, only Bernadina, Guzman, and Colvin graded out as positive defenders across the three OF spots, as does Heisey.

4. He's entering his prime.
Heisey will be 28 next season, a time when most players find their best success. Over the next four seasons, Heisey should either show a marked improvement or stay relatively stable in his offensive numbers.

5. He's cheap.
2013 will be Heisey's first arbitration year. He should command right around a million dollars. That would put him well below league average and among the lower paid fourth OFers/ primary PH in the league.

6. He's among the most successful pinch hitters in the game.
In 160 career ABs as a sub, Heisey's line is .294/ .350/ .517/ .867. That's the holy trinity of pinch hitter success: BA, patience, and pop. And he's improving-- last season, as a PH, he went .329/ .391/ .645/ 1.036.

What's not to like there?

[RedEye]

I've always liked Chris. Thanks for giving some statistical heft to my case for him. One question - since you do see him improving (#4), do you also think he should be given a chance to start when/if Choo and/or Ludwick depart? I wonder whether he's one of those players who merits starting during his offensive peak years but not other times.

[Crumbley]

How many fourth outfielders have been better over the past few years? Most definitely a big asset.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I've always liked Chris. Thanks for giving some statistical heft to my case for him. One question - since you do see him improving (#4), do you also think he should be given a chance to start when/if Choo and/or Ludwick depart? I wonder whether he's one of those players who merits starting during his offensive peak years but not other times.

I think he's a second-division starter, at best, on the corners, but, IMO, he'd be a nice little "find" at CF. Bat him sixth or lower, and he'd be solidly average to above average.

[_Sir_Charles_]

The case FOR.... he's got a cute wife. Does that count for anything? :O)

[cumberlandreds]

^ Is that his wife? Looks more like a daughter. Of course I'm getting old and everyone looks young to me.

As long as you keep Heisey as a 4th outfielder he's just fine. If you have to have him to start everyday he may become very average at best.

[REDREAD]

wow, I agree, his wife looks like 17 years old Very cute though.

Heisey is just about a good of a 4th OF that any team could hope for, IMO.
I count him as another good success from the farm team. I just don't think he's good enough to start on a regular basis.

[_Sir_Charles_]

More recent. And yeah, that's his wife Lisa. That L'ville bats pic was just the first one I found. Several years ago obviously.

[WildcatFan]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

wow, I agree, his wife looks like 17 years old Very cute though.

We'll grant you a take-back here, if you'd like.

[corkedbat]

Oh, you're making a case for him. I thought we were chipping in and getting him a case of Rolling Rock or something.

[Kc61]

Chris' BB/K rate last season was .22. The only Reds hitter who played much and was worse in that area was Cairo. Valdez was tied with .22. (I guess Navaro and Costanzo were worse in that area too.) Stubbs' BB/K rate was better than Heisey's.

Chris walked 4.8 percent of the time last year and fanned 21.6 percent. Lifetime he has fanned 23.8 percent of the time, and walked 5.8 percent.

Not only is his plate discipline poor, but last season he didn't compensate with production. (His OPS was .715.)

Watching Chris last season, he swings at almost everything. And last year was his biggest sample size, his most PAs in his major league career.

Chris will be on the team next year, I wish him lots of success, he plays hard and does well defensively. Hopefully his power will return. And I'm glad he has supporters who come up with threads for him.

But on a team that needs to improve patience and contact at the plate, he has a ways to go.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Chris' BB/K rate last season was .22. The only Reds hitter who played much and was worse in that area was Cairo. Valdez was tied with .22. (I guess Navaro and Costanzo were worse in that area too.) Stubbs' BB/K rate was better than Heisey's.

Chris walked 4.8 percent of the time last year and fanned 21.6 percent. Lifetime he has fanned 23.8 percent of the time, and walked 5.8 percent.

Not only is his plate discipline poor, but last season he didn't compensate with production. (His OPS was .715.)

Watching Chris last season, he swings at almost everything. And last year was his biggest sample size, his most PAs in his major league career.

Chris will be on the team next year, I wish him lots of success, he plays hard and does well defensively. Hopefully his power will return. And I'm glad he has supporters who come up with threads for him.

But on a team that needs to improve patience and contact at the plate, he has a ways to go.

Despite his K rate and his BB rate, he's been a league average producer. For a fourth OF that can play all three OF positions well, Heisey has a lot of value.

[mth123]

I think Heisey is a pretty good 4th OF. Good teams have good players on the bench, and Heisey is one as long as he isn't over-exposed. He makes way more sense on a team without Drew Stubbs on it. FTR, I think the Reds dealt the right one.

Spot him with 300 or so PAs and he'll prove very valuable, just like he has the last couple of years. He's a bit of a tweener. I wouldn't really want to see him in CF for extended periods and I think his bat is a little light for a corner, but he's a pretty darned good 4th OF who can do a little bit of everything..

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Despite his K rate and his BB rate, he's been a league average producer. For a fourth OF that can play all three OF positions well, Heisey has a lot of value.

Heisey has been in the majors three years. Last season he had 375 PAs, the most of his career. With that level of exposure, Chris had his worst year, had an OPS of .715 and an OPS+ of 88.

To me, the issue is whether Heisey just had a bad year in 2012 or whether his performance has declined as pitchers have become more acquainted with his swing at everything style.

We'll find out. I hope he has a great 2013 and it turns out that he just had an off year in 2012.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by WildcatFan

We'll grant you a take-back here, if you'd like.

It's ok to say cute, isn't it? .. I thought that's the old man's way of saying "Pretty, but too young for me"