John Fay Abstains from HOF Voting to Avoid Casting Votes for Bonds and Clemens

[westofyou]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=19277

John Perrotto:

I truly agonized over whether to vote for players connected to PED use, like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. I even considered abstaining from the process, like two long-time baseball-writing colleagues whom I have great respect for, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer and T.J. Quinn of ESPN

So here are the nine players who got my vote:

Jeff Bagwell: I don’t get the steroids talk now that his career is over, because he drew little or no suspicion when he played. Regardless, he’s a Hall of Famer in my book and has been since the day his career ended.

Barry Bonds: Questioning the legitimacy of his home run record is certainly fine and dandy, but he is the greatest player I have seen in my 48 years on Earth, and it was a privilege to cover him for five seasons from 1988-92 when he played for the Pirates.

Roger Clemens: These achievements can’t be misremembered: a record seven Cy Young Awards, seven ERA titles, five strikeouts titles and 11 All-Star Game appearances.

Edgar Martinez: I’ll say it again: designated hitters are people, too, and he was the best one ever with a .312/.418/.515 triple-slash line that was as pretty as his swing.

Rafael Palmeiro: An extremely reliable source—with no ties to Palmeiro—told me an off-the-record story at the Winter Meetings that convinced me that Palmeiro was indeed a clean player and was tricked into using the steroid when he thought he was taking a shot of vitamin B-12 that led to his suspension and end of his career in 2005. Unfortunately, there would be too many legal ramifications to make the story public.

Mike Piazza: Granted, he did have a lot of acne on his back, but he was the greatest offensive catcher ever.

Curt Schilling: Everyone knows he was one of the game’s great post-season pitchers but he was also pretty darned good in the regular season.

Alan Trammell: This is a classic example of why players can stay on the ballot as long as 15 years if they gain at least five percent of the vote. I didn’t vote for him in his first 11 years on the ballot but have changed my mind after considering he played the most difficult position on the diamond (shortstop) and won four Gold Glove and three Silver Sluggers while helping redefine the position with his offensive prowess. Raines fans, there is your hope!

Larry Walker: The critics can say he was a Coors Field creation and too fragile, but I’ll say he had a 141 OPS+ with a triple-slash line of .313/.400/.565 in 8,030 plate appearances


---

[Brutus]

I have no problem with Barry Bonds getting in, simply because I truly believe he would have been a Hall of Fame player even if he'd never started going on 'roids. Before he got to San Fran and started juicing, he was just a hair behind Griffey for one of the absolute best players in the game. He'd never have broke the home run record or become the super beast into his late 30's that he became, but he'd have been H.O.F. material.

I don't know what to think about Clemens, really. But as much as I have no problem with leaving borderline guys out for the obvious reasons, I don't think Bonds was ever borderline even in spite of his usage.

[westofyou]

Clemens before 2000

AREER
1876-1999

NEUTRAL WINS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL LOSSES vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RSAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
GAMES STARTED >= 400

ERA                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     N_W      N_L     RSAA      IP       GS     
1    Lefty Grove                1.36     3.06     4.42      298       77      668   3940        457   
2    Roger Clemens              1.30     3.04     4.34      255       68      547   3462.1      479   
3    Greg Maddux                1.15     2.81     3.96      230       54      421   3068.2      432   
4    Whitey Ford                1.10     2.74     3.84      214       49      321   3171        438   
5    Walter Johnson             1.07     2.17     3.24      470      100      643   5914.2      666   
6    Amos Rusie                 0.99     3.07     4.06      257       49      370   3769.2      427   
7    Carl Hubbell               0.98     2.98     3.96      253       46      355   3591        431   
8    Kid Nichols                0.94     2.95     3.89      373       88      678   5057        561   
9    Cy Young                   0.92     2.63     3.54      533      116      813   7356        815   
10   Bob Feller                 0.91     3.25     4.16      252       38      279   3828        484   
11   Jim Palmer                 0.86     2.86     3.72      251       51      314   3948        521   
12   Grover C Alexander         0.83     2.56     3.39      374       79      524   5189        599   
13   Warren Spahn               0.81     3.08     3.89      353       37      319   5245.2      665   
14   Tom Seaver                 0.79     2.86     3.66      312       62      404   4782.2      647   
15   Christy Mathewson          0.78     2.13     2.91      361       64      405   4780.1      551   
16   John Clarkson              0.73     2.81     3.54      323       71      508   4536.1      518   
17   Tim Keefe                  0.71     2.62     3.34      346       62      377   5052.1      593   
18   Don Drysdale               0.70     2.95     3.65      219       35      229   3432        465   
19   Billy Pierce               0.68     3.27     3.95      221       25      224   3305        432   
20   Ted Lyons                  0.68     3.67     4.34      284       27      286   4161.2      484

Then after

CAREER
1876-2012

NEUTRAL WINS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL LOSSES vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RSAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
GAMES STARTED >= 400

ERA                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     N_W      N_L     RSAA      IP       GS     
1    Pedro Martinez             1.52     2.93     4.45      220       60      496   2827.1      409   
2    Lefty Grove                1.36     3.06     4.42      298       77      668   3940        457   
3    Roger Clemens              1.26     3.12     4.38      355       93      732   4916.2      707   
4    Whitey Ford                1.10     2.74     3.84      214       49      321   3171        438   
5    Walter Johnson             1.07     2.17     3.24      470      100      643   5914.2      666   
6    Randy Johnson              1.06     3.29     4.36      294       57      527   4135.1      603   
7    Kevin Brown                1.03     3.28     4.30      218       45      304   3256.1      476   
8    Amos Rusie                 0.99     3.07     4.06      257       49      370   3769.2      427   
9    Carl Hubbell               0.98     2.98     3.96      253       46      355   3591        431   
10   Tim Hudson                 0.97     3.42     4.39      184       34      271   2682.1      405   
11   Greg Maddux                0.96     3.16     4.11      363       61      552   5008.1      740   
12   Kid Nichols                0.94     2.95     3.89      373       88      678   5057        561   
13   Cy Young                   0.92     2.63     3.54      533      116      813   7356        815   
14   Bob Feller                 0.91     3.25     4.16      252       38      279   3828        484   
15   Mike Mussina               0.88     3.68     4.56      251       27      326   3562.2      536   
16   Jim Palmer                 0.86     2.86     3.72      251       51      314   3948        521   
17   Grover C Alexander         0.83     2.56     3.39      374       79      524   5189        599   
18   Warren Spahn               0.81     3.08     3.89      353       37      319   5245.2      665   
19   Curt Schilling             0.80     3.46     4.26      220       40      346   3261        436   
20   Tom Seaver                 0.79     2.86     3.66      312       62      404   4782.2      647   
21   Christy Mathewson          0.78     2.13     2.91      361       64      405   4780.1      551   
22   John Smoltz                0.76     3.33     4.09      220       46      312   3473        481   
23   David Cone                 0.76     3.46     4.23      189       31      228   2898.2      419   
24   Kevin Appier               0.76     3.74     4.50      176       16      225   2595.1      402   
25   John Clarkson              0.73     2.81     3.54      323       71      508   4536.1      518   
26   Tim Keefe                  0.71     2.62     3.34      346       62      377   5052.1      593   
27   Andy Pettitte              0.70     3.86     4.55      224       13      232   3130.2      491   
28   Don Drysdale               0.70     2.95     3.65      219       35      229   3432        465   
29   Billy Pierce               0.68     3.27     3.95      221       25      224   3305        432   
30   Ted Lyons                  0.68     3.67     4.34      284       27      286   4161.2      484   
31   Bob Gibson                 0.67     2.91     3.59      264       55      350   3885        482   
32   Juan Marichal              0.67     2.89     3.56      228       38      252   3506        457   
33   Red Faber                  0.64     3.15     3.79      269       29      250   4087        484   
34   Dave Stieb                 0.63     3.44     4.06      185       34      236   2895.1      412   
35   Tom Glavine                0.59     3.54     4.13      294       33      305   4413.1      682   
36   Old Hoss Radbourn          0.59     2.67     3.26      300       49      254   4535.1      503   
37   Chuck Finley               0.58     3.85     4.43      213       19      203   3197.1      467   
38   Red Ruffing                0.56     3.80     4.36      273       18      170   4342        536   
39   Gaylord Perry              0.53     3.11     3.63      336       55      317   5350.1      690   
40   Eddie Plank                0.53     2.35     2.88      311       39      278   4495.2      529   
41   Nolan Ryan                 0.53     3.19     3.72      336       20      205   5386        773   
42   Orel Hershiser             0.52     3.48     4.00      197       17      124   3130.1      466   
43   Robin Roberts              0.51     3.40     3.91      296       26      220   4689        609   
44   Will White                 0.50     2.28     2.78      234       35      189   3542.2      401   
45   Bert Blyleven              0.50     3.31     3.81      313       53      344   4970        685   
46   Mel Harder                 0.50     3.80     4.30      226        8      176   3425.2      433   
47   Waite Hoyt                 0.50     3.59     4.08      235       26      187   3763        422   
48   Eppa Rixey                 0.50     3.15     3.64      291       23      217   4494        552   
49   Freddie Fitzsimmons        0.48     3.51     3.99      201       18      145   3225        426   
50   Tony Mullane               0.48     3.05     3.53      289       38      241   4531.1      504

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I have no problem with Barry Bonds getting in, simply because I truly believe he would have been a Hall of Fame player even if he'd never started going on 'roids. Before he got to San Fran and started juicing, he was just a hair behind Griffey for one of the absolute best players in the game. He'd never have broke the home run record or become the super beast into his late 30's that he became, but he'd have been H.O.F. material.

I don't know what to think about Clemens, really. But as much as I have no problem with leaving borderline guys out for the obvious reasons, I don't think Bonds was ever borderline even in spite of his usage.

I have a big problem with it.

He had 2/3 of his ABs in SF, 7 years in Pittsburgh, 15 in SF. He had just started hitting his prime when he left for the West Coast. I think you can infer the beginning of his PEDs usage as sometime once he went to SF, but I think it is fair to question any of his production, not just when his head got big. I'm not saying that is what you are using to mark when he started, but I think that is the common conception, and it begs the question regarding when he did actually start. Only God and Barry know.

I think he built his HOF credentials primarily in SF, where all of his production can be considered tainted, and therefore he should not be in the HOF. Plus, he's the poster child for the steroid scandal the same as Shoeless Joe and Pete are for gambling scandals.

If they let Bonds in, then the steroid impact on a career should not be considered for anyone.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I have a big problem with it.

He had 2/3 of his ABs in SF, 7 years in Pittsburgh, 15 in SF. He had just started hitting his prime when he left for the West Coast. I think you can infer the beginning of his PEDs usage as sometime once he went to SF, but I think it is fair to question any of his production, not just when his head got big. I'm not saying that is what you are using to mark when he started, but I think that is the common conception, and it begs the question regarding when he did actually start. Only God and Barry know.

I think he built his HOF credentials primarily in SF, where all of his production can be considered tainted, and therefore he should not be in the HOF. Plus, he's the poster child for the steroid scandal the same as Shoeless Joe and Pete are for gambling scandals.

If they let Bonds in, then the steroid impact on a career should not be considered for anyone.

Only one major leaguer had more WAR between 1986-1992 (the Pirates years) than Bonds. His name was Roger Clemens. As a Pirate, Bonds won 2 MVP awards while finishing second in another year. He won 3 gold gloves and 3 silver slugger awards as well. In other words, as a Pirate, Bonds not only was considered the best player at his position, he was widely considered the best player in the league. What's more, this all occurred before his age 28 season.

[757690]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I have a big problem with it.

He had 2/3 of his ABs in SF, 7 years in Pittsburgh, 15 in SF. He had just started hitting his prime when he left for the West Coast. I think you can infer the beginning of his PEDs usage as sometime once he went to SF, but I think it is fair to question any of his production, not just when his head got big. I'm not saying that is what you are using to mark when he started, but I think that is the common conception, and it begs the question regarding when he did actually start. Only God and Barry know.

I think he built his HOF credentials primarily in SF, where all of his production can be considered tainted, and therefore he should not be in the HOF. Plus, he's the poster child for the steroid scandal the same as Shoeless Joe and Pete are for gambling scandals.

If they let Bonds in, then the steroid impact on a career should not be considered for anyone.

No one except Bonds knows for sure, but others have said that he started using after McGwire and Sosa broke the HR record on PED's. His use was a direct reaction to it. And his numbers suggest that. He actually started to decline a bit in 1999, then saw drastic improvements in 2000-04.

From 1986-1998, Bonds had 445 HR's, 1299 RBI's and this slashline: .288/.409/559/968 163 OPS+ 3 MVP's.

He retires after that, he's a HOF'er, imo.

[edabbs44]

WOY, I think that 2nd Clemens chart is inaccurate, looks to be his entire career.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

WOY, I think that 2nd Clemens chart is inaccurate, looks to be his entire career.

Yes it is, here's the 2000-2012

CAREER
2000-2012

NEUTRAL WINS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL LOSSES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RSAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
GAMES STARTED displayed only--not a sorting criteria

ERA                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     N_W      N_L     RSAA      IP       GS     
1    Pedro Martinez             1.50     3.01     4.51      110       52      248   1468        227   
2    Johan Santana              1.20     3.20     4.40      139       78      253   2025.2      284   
3    Roger Clemens              1.15     3.34     4.49      100       57      185   1454.1      228   
4    Felix Hernandez            1.09     3.22     4.30      105       69      145   1620.1      238   
5    Brandon Webb               1.08     3.27     4.35       99       50      199   1319.2      198   
6    Roy Halladay               1.08     3.28     4.36      180      103      313   2524        357   
7    John Smoltz                1.06     3.28     4.35       61       37      124   1058.2      125   
8    Jered Weaver               1.05     3.24     4.29       95       59      133   1320.1      207   
9    Adam Wainwright            1.04     3.15     4.19       80       48      112   1073        151   
10   Randy Johnson              1.03     3.34     4.36      139       82      250   1885.1      281   
11   Roy Oswalt                 0.96     3.28     4.24      161       98      238   2213        335   
12   Tim Hudson                 0.93     3.43     4.36      175      113      249   2546        384   
13   Justin Verlander           0.90     3.40     4.30      117       72      169   1553.2      232   
14   Matt Cain                  0.89     3.27     4.17       95       68      127   1536.2      235   
15   Curt Schilling             0.89     3.54     4.43      111       69      200   1569.1      221   
16   C.C. Sabathia              0.88     3.50     4.38      176      117      253   2564.1      383   
17   Cole Hamels                0.81     3.34     4.15       91       60      130   1376.2      211   
18   Jake Peavy                 0.81     3.46     4.27      122       91      118   1800.1      282   
19   Tim Lincecum               0.80     3.31     4.11       79       56       87   1214        188   
20   Chris Carpenter            0.70     3.59     4.29      114       78      134   1813        271   
21   Cliff Lee                  0.69     3.59     4.28      117       86      121   1852.2      280   
22   Jason Schmidt              0.69     3.63     4.32       81       62       86   1260.1      197   
23   Mike Mussina               0.68     3.87     4.54      125       96      119   1790.2      282   
24   Greg Maddux                0.66     3.70     4.36      133      102      131   1939.2      308   
25   Andy Pettitte              0.63     3.82     4.45      151      109      154   2086.1      333

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by jojo

Only one major leaguer had more WAR between 1986-1992 (the Pirates years) than Bonds. His name was Roger Clemens. As a Pirate, Bonds won 2 MVP awards while finishing second in another year. He won 3 gold gloves and 3 silver slugger awards as well. In other words, as a Pirate, Bonds not only was considered the best player at his position, he was widely considered the best player in the league. What's more, this all occurred before his age 28 season.

Which is a great start to a career, but certainly doesn't qualify him for the HOF. By that logic, Albert Belle and dozens of others were on a HOF career track. Baseball-ref similarity scores (since you threw out WAR, I'll use something dubious for evidence as well) at that age is Greg Luzinski, hardly a HOF candidate. His exalted status was accomplished in SF, with magic beans that really worked. It will really make the HOF a sham if he is voted in.

[Matt700wlw]

Vote "present" like they do in Congress

[AmarilloRed]

I suppose a lot depends on whether a player's character is going to be considered in the HOF vote. If you're going to let Bonds and Clemens in, you might as well let Pete Rose in as well.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

I suppose a lot depends on whether a player's character is going to be considered in the HOF vote. If you're going to let Bonds and Clemens in, you might as well let Pete Rose in as well.

And on his plaque I'd like them to post Rule 21

[jojo]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Which is a great start to a career, but certainly doesn't qualify him for the HOF. By that logic, Albert Belle and dozens of others were on a HOF career track. Baseball-ref similarity scores (since you threw out WAR, I'll use something dubious for evidence as well) at that age is Greg Luzinski, hardly a HOF candidate. His exalted status was accomplished in SF, with magic beans that really worked. It will really make the HOF a sham if he is voted in.

Simply assuming a normal career trajectory after Pittsburgh puts him in the HOF.

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by jojo

Simply assuming a normal career trajectory after Pittsburgh puts him in the HOF.

Projecting him after his first four years (1986-89) had him as "good" not great. We can all play this game.

Who knows when he started juicing? There is nothing normal about Barry Bonds' baseball career and stats. He might as well have been an alien robot.

Canseco was on the juice since the mid-80s. This speculation that Bonds only took steroids in his later years, and that he was HOF-calibre without them, is just that - speculation. When I joined this board, a significant portion of posters were in denial of him EVER using.

He's tainted, grimy as dirt, covered in crap. It's pointless to try to figure out what might of been, since HE HIMSELF made it impossible.

He's a freak, a joke, an asterisk, a point so far off the curve it can only be an error. There's no projecting that and no point in trying.
Bonds equals steroids. One doesn't exist without the other.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by oneupper

Projecting him after his first four years (1986-89) had him as "good" not great. We can all play this game.

Who knows when he started juicing? There is nothing normal about Barry Bonds' baseball career and stats. He might as well have been an alien robot.

Canseco was on the juice since the mid-80s. This speculation that Bonds only took steroids in his later years, and that he was HOF-calibre without them, is just that - speculation. When I joined this board, a significant portion of posters were in denial of him EVER using.

He's tainted, grimy as dirt, covered in crap. It's pointless to try to figure out what might of been, since HE HIMSELF made it impossible.

He's a freak, a joke, an asterisk, a point so far off the curve it can only be an error. There's no projecting that and no point in trying.
Bonds equals steroids. One doesn't exist without the other.

Nah he's a great player

This is really who the above statement is about