Reds sign Cesar Izturis

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by mth123

I love this signing -. as long as he plays in Louisville until September 1 or Cozart goes on the DL. Ths team woud be a defensive mess with any of Donald, Burris or Hannahan getting extended chunks of time at SS. If Cozart is injured, I want Izturis stating at SS 5 days per week until he comes back. I know it will be like having another pitcher in the line-up, but SS is too important to the defense to go with a substandard defender there.

I know Burris was signed, but he's more of a second baseman (and his bat isn't really better than Izturis). He's bettter than Donald, but he's not really a day-in, day-out SS.

The Reds should pay Izturis major league money while he's in AAA so he sticks around when Spring Training ends. If its too crowded in AAA, I'd cut Negron or one of the others loose.

I agree with you here in your entire post. To add on, if Izturis wants that major league bench spot on top of the major league salary, I find a way to fit him on the bench rather than lose him to another team.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

What an odd occurrence with the delay in an actual news release of the signing.

And this is one, should he be on the big club some time this season, that will make me miss Nuxy. Wouldn't you love to hear him work on pronouncing his name? And how about Choo and Izturis being involved in the same play?

Haha. I remember Joe trying to pronounce Bobby Abreu's last name. He kept calling him "uh-BREW." Kind of like, "I'm going to go grab myself 'a brew' from the fridge." I loved it.

[Blitz Dorsey]

So, as far as position players are concerned, there's really only one spring training battle for a roster spot, right? That being Jason Donald v Cesar Izturis for the backup middle infielder job? I think the two backup OFs are set with Heisey and Paul. So, unless I'm missing something, that leaves just Donald v Izturis. I personally hope Izturis makes it just for the defensive aspect. Also, I hope Izturis is willing to accept an assignment to Louisville if he doesn't make the Reds' 25-man roster coming out of Goodyear.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

So, as far as position players are concerned, there's really only one spring training battle for a roster spot, right? That being Jason Donald v Cesar Izturis for the backup middle infielder job? I think the two backup OFs are set with Heisey and Paul. So, unless I'm missing something, that leaves just Donald v Izturis. I personally hope Izturis makes it just for the defensive aspect. Also, I hope Izturis is willing to accept an assignment to Louisville if he doesn't make the Reds' 25-man roster coming out of Goodyear.

I think you are likely correct about Donald v. Izturis being the only position battle in spring training barring an injury. That being said, Walt maybe looking into bringing in a good defensive centerfielder to compete with Paul and Heisey for a 5th OF job. It would be nice to have a good glove in CF if we needed one. That being said, I see the 5th outfielder being used more as the 2nd bat off the bench rather than as a defensive replacement for Choo, so maybe we may just want to go with Heisey and Paul, unless there is a better offensive outfielder that could be had.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

I think you are likely correct about Donald v. Izturis being the only position battle in spring training barring an injury. That being said, Walt maybe looking into bringing in a good defensive centerfielder to compete with Paul and Heisey for a 5th OF job. It would be nice to have a good glove in CF if we needed one. That being said, I see the 5th outfielder being used more as the 2nd bat off the bench rather than as a defensive replacement for Choo, so maybe we may just want to go with Heisey and Paul, unless there is a better offensive outfielder that could be had.

I expect the bench to be Donald, Hannahan, Paul, Heisey, and Mes/Hanigan.

Fully expect Izturis or any defensive CF to be at AAA.

Not sure the Reds would want another no-hit, all field, guy like Valdez on the bench.

I see very little competition this spring for position player spots.

[MikeS21]

Much still depends on whether or not Rolen decides to return - even for a bench role. Even with Rolen on the bench, it causes a domino effect for the other bench slots.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

Much still depends on whether or not Rolen decides to return - even for a bench role. Even with Rolen on the bench, it causes a domino effect for the other bench slots.

Aren't Walt and Dusty both on record saying that's highly unlikely? Course, that has been at least 2 weeks (probably more) so perhaps Roles is getting that itch and has changed his mind. Or is at least thinking about it. But I know there have been posts on RedsZone claiming that Walt/Dusty have said they've pretty much turned the page on Rolen. I can't imagine they would have given Hannahan $4 million over 2 years if they thought there was a good chance Rolen would come back. $4 million ($2 mil a year) is not very much for most teams, but it's a nice chunk of change for a backup third baseman for the Reds.

I guess there's a chance Hannahan could be the backup SS if Rolen does return. Probably wouldn't have much range, but if he's that great of a glove man at third, he could probably hold the fort down at SS if Cozart got a minor injury or something (nothing long-term). Has anyone seen Hannahan enough to know whether he's even an option as a backup SS? Again, not saying this is ideal, but if Rolen comes back, Hannahan would still be on the team in some capacity.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I expect the bench to be Donald, Hannahan, Paul, Heisey, and Mes/Hanigan.

Fully expect Izturis or any defensive CF to be at AAA.

Not sure the Reds would want another no-hit, all field, guy like Valdez on the bench.

I see very little competition this spring for position player spots.

Why is Donald such a better option than Izturis?

Donald is currently sporting a .257/.309/.362 career line with a glove that won't play at short and is average to below average around the rest of the infield.

Izturis has a .255/.294/.323 career line with a good glove at short who can also play the rest of the infield.

I used to like Donald a lot in the 2008-2009 time frame when we really needed a young SS. He has proven to be a AAAA player since that time. He is now 28 years old and had a terrible year at the plate and in the field last year.

Cesar Izturis is only 32 years old. We know he can't hit, but I am not sure his bat is that far behind Donald's. We also know for sure that his glove is better than Donald's.

The more I research these two guys, the more I think Izturis should have the bench spot over Donald.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Why is Donald such a better option than Izturis?

Donald is currently sporting a .257/.309/.362 career line with a glove that won't play at short and is average to below average around the rest of the infield.

Izturis has a .255/.294/.323 career line with a good glove at short who can also play the rest of the infield.

I used to like Donald a lot in the 2008-2009 time frame when we really needed a young SS. He has proven to be a AAAA player since that time. He is now 28 years old and had a terrible year at the plate and in the field last year.

Cesar Izturis is only 32 years old. We know he can't hit, but I am not sure his bat is that far behind Donald's. We also know for sure that his glove is better than Donald's.

The more I research these two guys, the more I think Izturis should have the bench spot over Donald.

Donald had a .690 OPS in 2010 and a .765 in 2011. While he had a bad year in 2012, I think the Reds will give him the spot for middle infielder. These are numbers that Izturis hasn't approached in many years (he did hit .710 OPS, but in 2004).

With Cozart and Phillips such fine defenders, I don't see the need for a no-hit, good field guy as a backup. I think the Reds probably learned their lesson with Janish/Valdez. With a five man bench, have players who hit a little.

Now, if Cozart should get hurt, all bets are off, and Izturis could get quite a lot of playing time. I just think Donald will be deemed the better choice for the bench while Cozart and Phillips are starting most every day.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Donald had a .690 OPS in 2010 and a .765 in 2011. While he had a bad year in 2012, I think the Reds will give him the spot for middle infielder. These are numbers that Izturis hasn't approached in many years (he did hit .710 OPS, but in 2004).

With Cozart and Phillips such fine defenders, I don't see the need for a no-hit, good field guy as a backup. I think the Reds probably learned their lesson with Janish/Valdez. With a five man bench, have players who hit a little.

Now, if Cozart should get hurt, all bets are off, and Izturis could get quite a lot of playing time. I just think Donald will be deemed the better choice for the bench while Cozart and Phillips are starting most every day.

Again, I am not arguing that Izturis is a better hitter than Donald. Just that either Izturis or Donald are likely the fourth or fifth bats off the bench. I think we can both agree that they are competing for the spot vacated by Wilson Valdez. Wilson Valdez got a whopping 15 PAs as a PH last year. Even though Donald is likely a slightly better hitter than Valdez, he is still not going to get a ton of PAs off the bench.

I think I would rather have a much better glove than a barely bat out of my backup middle infielder. The better glove would not be used as a defensive replacement for Phillips or Cozart, but rather as a helper to pitchers when Cozart and maybe Phillips need a day off. I am not sure Donald (or anyone else on the 25 man roster you propose) can play an average defensive shortstop when Cozart needs a day off. Izturis will give an above average defensive performance on those days off. Remember Zack had 24 games off last year and we will need someone to start shortstop when Dusty inevitably gives him a rest.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Again, I am not arguing that Izturis is a better hitter than Donald. Just that either Izturis or Donald are likely the fourth or fifth bats off the bench. I think we can both agree that they are competing for the spot vacated by Wilson Valdez. Wilson Valdez got a whopping 15 PAs as a PH last year. Even though Donald is likely a slightly better hitter than Valdez, he is still not going to get a ton of PAs off the bench.

I think I would rather have a much better glove than a barely bat out of my backup middle infielder. The better glove would not be used as a defensive replacement for Phillips or Cozart, but rather as a helper to pitchers when Cozart and maybe Phillips need a day off. I am not sure Donald (or anyone else on the 25 man roster you propose) can play an average defensive shortstop when Cozart needs a day off. Izturis will give an above average defensive performance on those days off. Remember Zack had 24 games off last year and we will need someone to start shortstop when Dusty inevitably gives him a rest.

Donald's more than slightly better than Izturis at the plate. He's about .150 OPS points better. Izturis is a sub-Castro hitter these days, and at age 33 I wouldn't expect anything special from his glove.

Technically the Reds can only keep one of them on the major league roster (assuming a seven-man pen, which is becoming standard practice) and I'd vastly prefer it be Donald. Izturis should be competing with Burriss in AAA to be the guy who gets the call if Cozart gets injured.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by M2

Donald's more than slightly better than Izturis at the plate. He's about .150 OPS points better. Izturis is a sub-Castro hitter these days, and at age 33 I wouldn't expect anything special from his glove.

Technically the Reds can only keep one of them on the major league roster (assuming a seven-man pen, which is becoming standard practice) and I'd vastly prefer it be Donald. Izturis should be competing with Burriss in AAA to be the guy who gets the call if Cozart gets injured.

150 OPS points is pushing it. Their career OPSes are only 133 points different and Izturis actually out OPSed Donald by 69 points last year. Donald had a very lucky 2011 in which he had a .423 BABIP which made him look like a better hitter than he is. I am not arguing that Izturis is a good hitter, but sub-Castro is another gross exxageration. Izturis has Castro's career OBP beat by 26 points.

Who are you starting at short when Cozart needs a day off? The guy who has played 571 innings there, all below average using any defensive metric or the guy who has played 9152 innings there all above average? I won't be extremely mad if the Reds chose Donald over Izturis, but I certainly don't think it is a lock that Donald deserves that roster spot over Izturis.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

150 OPS points is pushing it. Their career OPSes are only 133 points different and Izturis actually out OPSed Donald by 69 points last year. Donald had a very lucky 2011 in which he had a .423 BABIP which made him look like a better hitter than he is. I am not arguing that Izturis is a good hitter, but sub-Castro is another gross exxageration. Izturis has Castro's career OBP beat by 26 points.

Who are you starting at short when Cozart needs a day off? The guy who has played 571 innings there, all below average using any defensive metric or the guy who has played 9152 innings there all above average? I won't be extremely mad if the Reds chose Donald over Izturis, but I certainly don't think it is a lock that Donald deserves that roster spot over Izturis.

I was using their career numbers on the estimation and adjusting for Donald being in his prime and Izturis well past his. Plus, Donald can get a few HRs out of the GAB.

Castro, with the Reds (which is the reference point I use for him) was a .628 OPS and 61 OPS+. That's better than what Izturis can do these days.

And Cozart's likely to start 150 games this coming season. Izturis is completely useless on the bench. He can't PH, he's past being a PR, he isn't going to the Reds' best defender at any position. It's like having a 24-man roster. I'd much rather give Donald those starts. He played 415 games at SS in the minors and he'd have played more of it in the majors except Asdrubal Cabrera had that position locked down in Cleveland. Donald won't be anything flashy there, but he'll supply Keppinger-level defense. He's shown some ability to hit LHPs (something the Reds need off the bench), he's got a little speed, he offers better positional versatility (Donald can play OF if needed). I'll take the guy who has uses in 162 games over the guy who only has a use in 12.

[traderumor]

Izturis is a cheap rider on the SS insurance policy, nothing more.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by M2

I was using their career numbers on the estimation and adjusting for Donald being in his prime and Izturis well past his. Plus, Donald can get a few HRs out of the GAB.

Castro, with the Reds (which is the reference point I use for him) was a .628 OPS and 61 OPS+. That's better than what Izturis can do these days.

And Cozart's likely to start 150 games this coming season. Izturis is completely useless on the bench. He can't PH, he's past being a PR, he isn't going to the Reds' best defender at any position. It's like having a 24-man roster. I'd much rather give Donald those starts. He played 415 games at SS in the minors and he'd have played more of it in the majors except Asdrubal Cabrera had that position locked down in Cleveland. Donald won't be anything flashy there, but he'll supply Keppinger-level defense. He's shown some ability to hit LHPs (something the Reds need off the bench), he's got a little speed, he offers better positional versatility (Donald can play OF if needed). I'll take the guy who has uses in 162 games over the guy who only has a use in 12.

How do we figure that Cozart is going to start 150 games next year when he started 136 last year (138 GP, but 2 PH PAs)? Furthermore, it is not like Dusty likes to play his starters (even his superstars) every day. Only two guys actually started more games than Cozart last year and that was Bruce (150) and Brandon (145). Sure, Votto probably would have broken 136 if he was healthy the whole year, but it is pretty telling that only two guys started 137+ last year. I think there is a much better chance that Cozart starts 136 games than 150 next year. Let's split the difference and say that Cozart starts 143 games next year. That still means Cozart is on the bench for the majority of 19 games next year. During those games, do you really want Jason Donald as the starting shortstop?

Sure, he played 415 games there in the minors, but it's not like he played it well. Every advanced defensive metric says that he has been terrible at short throughout his major league career. You give the Keppinger defensive comparison, which is a good one. Both are terrible defensive shortstops. The difference between Kepp and Donald is that Kepp is a much better hitter. Kepp has a career .733 OPS with a .806 OPS last year and Donald has a career .672 OPS with a .529 OPS last year. It is also telling that Keppinger hasn't played short at all since 2010 and not over 87 innings since 2008, as a Red.

Also, going to your point of Donald being valuable for 162 games while Izturis would only be valuable for 12, I will go back to my point that Donald is taking Valdez' spot on the bench. Sure, Donald is a better hitter than Valdez, still Donald is definitely behind Heisey and Paul on the bench pecking order, and probably Hannahan as well. Furthermore, he should be behind Mesigan, but he may still get PAs over them. Valdez got 15 PH PAs last year, I would doubt Donald/Izturis would get more than 25 PH PAs in 2013.

Furthermore, Donald isn't a better defender than any starter, so it's not like he can help with the glove off the bench either.

In addition, Donald has 12 steals in 170 games in the bigs and he hasn't stolen more than 12 bases in any pro season, so he doesn't add any speed off the bench either. Izturis may not have the speed he had in 2008 when he had 24 steals, but I don't think speed is an advantage to Donald. I think it's a push.

So it comes down to the value of Izturis being the better defensive shortstop when the backup gets to start around 20 games next year compared to Donald being the marginally better hitter (which he wasn't last year) in 25 PH PAs.

The more I look into this, the more I think Izturis should have this bench spot over Donald.