Reds sign Cesar Izturis

[Blitz Dorsey]

Anyone know if Hannahan could play SS in a pinch? I imagine he could, but I'm sure there's someone on here who knows for sure.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

The more I look into this, the more I think Izturis should have this bench spot over Donald.

I completely agree. If it comes down to Izturis or Donald, give me Izturis. And it looks like it will in fact come down to Izturis or Donald for the final roster spot.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

Anyone know if Hannahan could play SS in a pinch? I imagine he could, but I'm sure there's someone on here who knows for sure.

Hannahan has played 24 of his 3,751 (0.6%) of his big league innings at SS. He played 11 games in the minors as a SS out of 781 games (1.4%). I am sure he could play there in a pinch, but it is unlikely that he would be our primary backup SS. Perhaps the Reds do want to give him a shot at the backup SS job to get him more innings. Despite his defensive prowess at 3B, I am not sure how much of it would translate to short.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Hannahan has played 24 of his 3,751 (0.6%) of his big league innings at SS. He played 11 games in the minors as a SS out of 781 games (1.4%). I am sure he could play there in a pinch, but it is unlikely that he would be our primary backup SS. Perhaps the Reds do want to give him a shot at the backup SS job to get him more innings. Despite his defensive prowess at 3B, I am not sure how much of it would translate to short.

Thanks. Just guessing, I picture a guy that would be fine at short, just with very-limited range. I saw him play third a few times for the Indians and he's not a complete statue like some third basemen. So, he would have some range probably as a SS, but not very much (not as much as the average SS who needs to have a lot of range).

It is good to know he's at least played there a little bit in his career though, albeit a very tiny amount.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

Thanks. Just guessing, I picture a guy that would be fine at short, just with very-limited range. I saw him play third a few times for the Indians and he's not a complete statue like some third basemen. So, he would have some range probably as a SS, but not very much (not as much as the average SS who needs to have a lot of range).

It is good to know he's at least played there a little bit in his career though, albeit a very tiny amount.

Yea, I see Hannahan starting at third and only against righties (unless Votto or Frazier go to the DL). Hannahan had a .270/.331/.381 vs. righties in 237 PAs last year compared to .267/.259/.222 vs lefties in 81 PAs. He will probably get 30-40 starts next year for both Frazier and Votto (with Frazier sliding to first) off days, which should all come vs. righties. He could probably play SS, 2B and 1B as well, but I would imagine that the Reds will utilize him primarily as a 3B. They will slide Frazier to first when Votto is out, since Hannahan is the better defender, so I don't think we will see Hannahan much at first. Considering that Hannahan is a much better than bat than Izturis, Hannahan may be able to earn the backup 2B job based on the bat.

Either way, I am not sure if Donald or Hannahan will be able to pick it at short well enough to play there the 20ish games that Cozart will need a day off.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

How do we figure that Cozart is going to start 150 games next year when he started 136 last year (138 GP, but 2 PH PAs)?

Because he's now an established every day SS. Why wouldn't the Reds start him in 150 games if he's healthy? Who's pushing him to the bench or creating better matchups against certain pitchers? You've gone through the numbers and they're pretty clear. If Dusty gets a hold of an every day player, that guy is a safe bet to start 150 games (provided he stays healthy).

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Let's split the difference and say that Cozart starts 143 games next year. That still means Cozart is on the bench for the majority of 19 games next year. During those games, do you really want Jason Donald as the starting shortstop?

Yes. 162 > 19. And I'd much rather have a guy with a workable bat and meh defense for spot starts than a guy with a useless bat and an average glove.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Sure, he played 415 games there in the minors, but it's not like he played it well. Every advanced defensive metric says that he has been terrible at short throughout his major league career. You give the Keppinger defensive comparison, which is a good one. Both are terrible defensive shortstops.

Keppinger wasn't good, but he wasn't terrible. He's a poor SS who can get by at the position on a limited or emergency basis. Donald fits into the same profile. Donald hasn't played enough SS in the majors for the metrics to mean anything.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Also, going to your point of Donald being valuable for 162 games while Izturis would only be valuable for 12, I will go back to my point that Donald is taking Valdez' spot on the bench. Sure, Donald is a better hitter than Valdez, still Donald is definitely behind Heisey and Paul on the bench pecking order, and probably Hannahan as well.

He shouldn't be behind any of them when a LHP is on the mound. Paul and Handsome Jack hit LH and Heisey isn't very good vs. LHPs. And if the Reds need a PR? Donald can do that while one of the other guys hits vs. a tough RHP. Donald also provides an extra OF on the bench. He's got a potential use in any game and adds something to what the Reds can bring off the bench.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Furthermore, Donald isn't a better defender than any starter, so it's not like he can help with the glove off the bench either.

Donald doesn't need to be because he has uses other than his fielding. If Izturis is on the bench his only viable use is to come in and field, which is something the Reds don't really need off the bench (Phillips and Cozart are GG-level defenders and Hannahan has the 3B defensive replacement gig). It means Izturis is just sitting there with no purpose waiting to get maybe a start or two each month.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

In addition, Donald has 12 steals in 170 games in the bigs and he hasn't stolen more than 12 bases in any pro season, so he doesn't add any speed off the bench either. Izturis may not have the speed he had in 2008 when he had 24 steals, but I don't think speed is an advantage to Donald. I think it's a push.

Izturis' legs are just about gone. He's now a guy you'd want to PR for late in a game. Donald is better on the bases than Ludwick, Votto, Hanigan/Mes, Frazier and any pitcher you care to name. He's no speed demon, but he's sneaky capable out there. That'll get a guy some PR work.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

The more I look into this, the more I think Izturis should have this bench spot over Donald.

Fortunately the Reds contractually can't agree with you. Donald is on the major league roster and he's out of options. You'd have to assume the team traded for him to use him. Meanwhile Izturis is a NRI looking to latch on. Unless Donald flames out in ST, he's got the job.

[M2]

FWIW, Hannahan's a fairly balanced hitter for his career.

vs. RHP - .233/.318/.363
vs. LHP - .235/.312/.334

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by M2

He shouldn't be behind any of them when a LHP is on the mound. Paul and Handsome Jack hit LH and Heisey isn't very good vs. LHPs. And if the Reds need a PR? Donald can do that while one of the other guys hits vs. a tough RHP. Donald also provides an extra OF on the bench. He's got a potential use in any game and adds something to what the Reds can bring off the bench.
.

This pretty much clinches it for me.
Even if Heisey was better against LHP, we need more than one righty bat off the bench.
I see Donald and Hannaran filling in Cairo's role last year (Cairo got a lot of playing time over the years). Donald will be the secondary RH bat off the bench.

Much like CF, the Reds are going to sacrifice SS bench defense to try to improve the offense. They thought enough of Donald to trade for him, I doubt they risk losing him. Plus Donald has some upside. Upside probably isn't a starting player, but maybe he's got a season or two of Mark Lewis in him. Isturis is pretty much toast at this point, nowhere to go but down. I am happy if the Reds manage to keep Izturis in AAA all year, that will be a good insurance policy.

I see this as being one of the unfortunate consequences of a 12 man pitching staff.. it's harder to carry a infield glove bench guy if your starters are good defenders. If we had a 26 man roster, adding Izturis or a bench CF (even if he can't hit) would make a lot of sense.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by M2

Fortunately the Reds contractually can't agree with you. Donald is on the major league roster and he's out of options. You'd have to assume the team traded for him to use him. Meanwhile Izturis is a NRI looking to latch on. Unless Donald flames out in ST, he's got the job.

No, you wouldn't have to assume that at all. The Reds did not "trade for Jason Donald." He was merely a "throw-in" when they traded for Shin-Soo Choo. Obviously the Reds would not have gone out and signed Cesar Izturis and probably told his agent he has a good chance of making the 25-man roster as a NRI if they were completely sold on Jason Donald making the team. I think the Reds like having Donald in spring training to see what he can do, but to act like he's a lock to make the roster just because he was a throw-in in the Choo deal is one heck of a reach, IMO. The Reds have zero risk attached to Jason Donald. If they feel Izturis is the better option, they won't think twice about sending Donald packing.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

No, you wouldn't have to assume that at all. The Reds did not "trade for Jason Donald." He was merely a "throw-in" when they traded for Shin-Soo Choo. Obviously the Reds would not have gone out and signed Cesar Izturis and probably told his agent he has a good chance of making the 25-man roster as a NRI if they were completely sold on Jason Donald making the team. I think the Reds like having Donald in spring training to see what he can do, but to act like he's a lock to make the roster just because he was a throw-in in the Choo deal is one heck of a reach, IMO. The Reds have zero risk attached to Jason Donald. If they feel Izturis is the better option, they won't think twice about sending Donald packing.

Why get a guy with no options as a throw-in if you're not going to give him a serious crack at your major league roster? It makes no sense.

There's definitely a scenario where Donald lays an egg in ST and Izturis gets that slot. Or maybe the Reds only carry 11 pitchers and Izturis gets a slot (wouldn't be my choice, but it's not like there's any other obvious picks).

Yet if Donald has a solid spring and looks like he can be a reasonable facsimile of his current major league averages, then his contract says he's got a roster spot. The Reds did not trade for something they fundamentally don't want.

NRIs always get told they've got a shot at the roster. Most know that the reality is they're longshots and that they're going to need to put some time in at AAA before they make the 25-man roster.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

No, you wouldn't have to assume that at all. The Reds did not "trade for Jason Donald." He was merely a "throw-in" when they traded for Shin-Soo Choo. Obviously the Reds would not have gone out and signed Cesar Izturis and probably told his agent he has a good chance of making the 25-man roster as a NRI if they were completely sold on Jason Donald making the team. I think the Reds like having Donald in spring training to see what he can do, but to act like he's a lock to make the roster just because he was a throw-in in the Choo deal is one heck of a reach, IMO. The Reds have zero risk attached to Jason Donald. If they feel Izturis is the better option, they won't think twice about sending Donald packing.

I think Donald is a near lock to make the Reds' roster out of spring training.

Reds could have asked the Indians for a number of other secondary players in the trade. They took Donald, and signed Hannahan, both with major league deals. They did so in the wake of disastrous offensive years by Cairo and Valdez.

I think the only way Donald doesn't make the team is if the Reds conclude he really can't play. Even if Izturis has a better spring, I think Donald makes the ballclub absent a disastrous showing in the spring.

I'd guess Izturis knows that he is probably beginning at AAA, but is the first choice to bolster the infield in case of injury or if somebody fails to perform.

Not saying Donald stays up if he does badly. He could get sent down later. But I strongly believe Donald makes the ballclub out of spring training.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I think Donald is a near lock to make the Reds' roster out of spring training.

Reds could have asked the Indians for a number of other secondary players in the trade. They took Donald, and signed Hannahan, both with major league deals. They did so in the wake of disastrous offensive years by Cairo and Valdez.

I think the only way Donald doesn't make the team is if the Reds conclude he really can't play. Even if Izturis has a better spring, I think Donald makes the ballclub absent a disastrous showing in the spring.

I'd guess Izturis knows that he is probably beginning at AAA, but is the first choice to bolster the infield in case of injury or if somebody fails to perform.

Not saying Donald stays up if he does badly. He could get sent down later. But I strongly believe Donald makes the ballclub out of spring training.

That's my general take.

Like tr said, Izturis is a cheap insurance rider. And I think he's primarily insurance for Cozart in case the kid gets injured or suffers some sort of horrific sophomore slump. Dioner Navarro had a similar gig last season, eventually making the majors when Mes couldn't get himself going.

I also think the Reds want a solid defense in AAA with Cingrani and Corcino likely headed there.

And then there's the you-never-know factor, which plays into most every NRI.

As an aside, this Cesar Izturis vs. Jason Donald debate has the makings of a very RedsZoney thread, so I encourage people to make a few hundred more posts on this topic.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by M2

Because he's now an established every day SS. Why wouldn't the Reds start him in 150 games if he's healthy? Who's pushing him to the bench or creating better matchups against certain pitchers? You've gone through the numbers and they're pretty clear. If Dusty gets a hold of an every day player, that guy is a safe bet to start 150 games (provided he stays healthy).

On the contrary, I believe the data shows that Dusty does not push his starters to play 150 games. Bruce is the only one who hit that plateau and he barely did. Brandon Phillips was healthy all year and is much more established than Cozart and played only 145.

Originally Posted by M2

Yes. 162 > 19. And I'd much rather have a guy with a workable bat and meh defense for spot starts than a guy with a useless bat and an average glove.

I am not sure what you mean by meh, but if it is very bad not something you want to see in even 10 starts, than I agree. If you want the slightly better bat from your middle infielder, rather than the slightly better glove, than I can't argue with you, that's personal preference. Give me the glove any day.

Originally Posted by M2

Keppinger wasn't good, but he wasn't terrible. He's a poor SS who can get by at the position on a limited or emergency basis. Donald fits into the same profile. Donald hasn't played enough SS in the majors for the metrics to mean anything.

I agree that we don't have enough defensive statistics to definitively conclude that Donald is a terrible defender, but there are enough statistics combined with his scouting reports to conclude that he is definitely an inferior glove to Izturis.

Originally Posted by M2

He shouldn't be behind any of them when a LHP is on the mound. Paul and Handsome Jack hit LH and Heisey isn't very good vs. LHPs. And if the Reds need a PR? Donald can do that while one of the other guys hits vs. a tough RHP. Donald also provides an extra OF on the bench. He's got a potential use in any game and adds something to what the Reds can bring off the bench.

I wouldn't mind Donald's bat off the bench. I just don't know how much opportunity he is going to have. I said 25 PH PAs during my last post, I really couldn't see more than 50. I just value the glove in the 10-25 starts the backup middle infielder is going to have over any amount of PAs. Just a point of personal preference.

Originally Posted by M2

Donald doesn't need to be because he has uses other than his fielding. If Izturis is on the bench his only viable use is to come in and field, which is something the Reds don't really need off the bench (Phillips and Cozart are GG-level defenders and Hannahan has the 3B defensive replacement gig). It means Izturis is just sitting there with no purpose waiting to get maybe a start or two each month.

I agre Izturis doesn't have much use on the bench. Fortunately, we have good starters and a few other decent pinch hitters so our backup middle infielder doesn't really need to be able to hit off the bench.

Originally Posted by M2

Izturis' legs are just about gone. He's now a guy you'd want to PR for late in a game. Donald is better on the bases than Ludwick, Votto, Hanigan/Mes, Frazier and any pitcher you care to name. He's no speed demon, but he's sneaky capable out there. That'll get a guy some PR work.

I am not sure how much Izturis has left in his legs. That being said, he has shown more speed throughout his career than Donald. You have absolutely no speed related stats to back up your assertion that Donald is better on the basepaths than Izturis. Either way, it's not like Dusty does a ton of pinch running and if he does it's either Arroyo or Leake.

Originally Posted by M2

Fortunately the Reds contractually can't agree with you. Donald is on the major league roster and he's out of options. You'd have to assume the team traded for him to use him. Meanwhile Izturis is a NRI looking to latch on. Unless Donald flames out in ST, he's got the job.

I completely disagree with this as well. Walt could have acquired Donald for insurance that he could not get another backup middle infielder. The Reds have next to nothing invested in Donald and based on how poorly he played last year, they could try to get him through waivers. If not, let another team take him. He is a decent bat vs. lefties on the bench, but I want my pitchers to be assured that they have a good defense behind them when they look at their shortstop. I just don't want to downgrade from at worst average defense at short to at best bad defense at short.

Give me Izturis over Donald.

[mdccclxix]

Some of the offense vs defense debate for the Reds could have to do with their offensive projections for this team. They have done a lot to get Choo, Ludwick, and a platoon guy with Frazier.

I agree with M2 in that I think they will keep who they know they can keep in Donald. The bench was so horrible offensively last year that even Hannahan is a huge upgrade. If they think they need even more offense, Donald should get the nod. If not, it may mean they're expecting great things offensively from their moves and want to strengthen the defense as much as possible.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Some of the offense vs defense debate for the Reds could have to do with their offensive projections for this team. They have done a lot to get Choo, Ludwick, and a platoon guy with Frazier.

I agree with M2 in that I think they will keep who they know they can keep in Donald. The bench was so horrible offensively last year that even Hannahan is a huge upgrade. If they think they need even more offense, Donald should get the nod. If not, it may mean they're expecting great things offensively from their moves and want to strengthen the defense as much as possible.

I think this post does a pretty good job of summing up the debate. I think that with most positions that you can sacrifice some defense for offense, but shortstop is such a pivotal defensive position that you really want a guy that your pitchers are comfortable with. You don't want to have to make your pitching staff get 29 outs everytime you run out your backup shortstop.