Reds sign Cesar Izturis

[M2]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

On the contrary, I believe the data shows that Dusty does not push his starters to play 150 games. Bruce is the only one who hit that plateau and he barely did. Brandon Phillips was healthy all year and is much more established than Cozart and played only 145.

Phillips was not healthy all year. He sat out three straight games in April because he was banged up and five straight games at the start of August. If not for that he starts 150+ for Dusty just like he did the previous three seasons. And Cozart would have started 150+ but he got a DL stint in September.

2011 - Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Stubbs got 150
2010 - Same 4, Gomes got 148
2009 - Only Phillips, Votto on DL
2008 - Only Votto, Phillips on DL, Encarnacion got 146, Dunn was on track for 150+ until he got traded

Basically, give Dusty a healthy every day player and he'll trot the guy out for 150+.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

I wouldn't mind Donald's bat off the bench. I just don't know how much opportunity he is going to have. I said 25 PH PAs during my last post, I really couldn't see more than 50. I just value the glove in the 10-25 starts the backup middle infielder is going to have over any amount of PAs. Just a point of personal preference.

The shorter the bench, the more opportunity. Point is Donald offers some versatility. Extra inning game, tight game, blowout game - he's got his uses. That's in addition to spot starts (might even give him some OF starts vs. tough lefties). The top five bench players on the Reds got 150+ PA last season. No way I want that kind of work going to Izturis instead of Donald, absolutely no way.

[QUOTE=Edd Roush;2796281]I agree Izturis doesn't have much use on the bench./quote]

Which is why you stash him in the minors unless/until you need a guy to start regularly at SS.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Fortunately, we have good starters and a few other decent pinch hitters so our backup middle infielder doesn't really need to be able to hit off the bench.

Again, short bench, nowhere to hide. You need players. The only reason to keep Izturis on a short bench is as a defensive replacement and the Reds don't need that.

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

You have absolutely no speed related stats to back up your assertion that Donald is better on the basepaths than Izturis.

Did you see Izturis play last year? He's getting ricketty, not to mention he could stand to drop 15-20 pounds. Also, during the past three seasons Donald has a +4 Rbaser while Izturis is a -5.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by M2

Phillips was not healthy all year. He sat out three straight games in April because he was banged up and five straight games at the start of August. If not for that he starts 150+ for Dusty just like he did the previous three seasons. And Cozart would have started 150+ but he got a DL stint in September.

2011 - Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Stubbs got 150
2010 - Same 4, Gomes got 148
2009 - Only Phillips, Votto on DL
2008 - Only Votto, Phillips on DL, Encarnacion got 146, Dunn was on track for 150+ until he got traded

Basically, give Dusty a healthy every day player and he'll trot the guy out for 150+.

I don't want to pick too many nits but again you are going with games played and not starts. B Phil actually only started 148 in 2011 (150 games played, but 2 were PH PAs). Votto only got 147 starts in 2010 (150 games played, but 3 PH PAs) and 141 starts in 2008 (150 games played, but 9 PH PAs). Stubbs only got 143 starts in 2010 (150 games played, but 6 PH PAs and 1 PR) and Bruce only got 139 starts in 2010 (148 starts, but 9 PH PAs).


In summary, once or twice a year the Reds have a starter go 150+ starts in a year. Usually this is the best player or two on the team. Cozart is behind Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Choo and probably Ludwick and Frazier on that list of best position player.

Furthermore, the Reds have also never had a starting shortstop start 150+ games since 2008. Obviously, Cozart should be an improvement over the rest of the post-Larkin shortstops, but still there is not good precedent for him starting 150+ games in the post-Larkin era.

Originally Posted by M2

The shorter the bench, the more opportunity. Point is Donald offers some versatility. Extra inning game, tight game, blowout game - he's got his uses. That's in addition to spot starts (might even give him some OF starts vs. tough lefties). The top five bench players on the Reds got 150+ PA last season. No way I want that kind of work going to Izturis instead of Donald, absolutely no way.

If those 150+ PA came without any tie in to defense, I would agree that the Reds should have only the best offensive players on the bench. However, the 150 PA stat skews one into thinking that all of those PAs were off the bench. Again, these two guys are competing for the Valdez role. Valdez got 15 PAs off the equally short bench last year. He was active in tight games, extra inning games and blowout games and still only got 15 PH PAs. Again, Donald is a better hitter, but I still don't see that many PAs afforded to the backup middle infielder.

As an aside, you have earlier touted his prowess vs. left handed pitching. This is certainly an asset. However, how often does the pitchers spot face a left handed bullpen arm? Most bullpens only have one or two lefties and one is a LOOGY who will often be used against Bruce. Much more frequently, the pinch hitter will replace the pitcher against a right handed reliever. Hannahan, Paul, Heisey and Mesigan are all better vs. righties than Donald. The middle infielder would be the worst bat off the bench vs. right handed pitching either way...

Originally Posted by M2

Which is why you stash him in the minors unless/until you need a guy to start regularly at SS.

My point is that the middle infielder bench guy has a much larger impact over the course of the season when he is making his spot start rather than when he gets his infrequent PH or PR appearance. I believe the last five years have shown that the backup SS will play 15-25 games there without the starting SS going on the DL. I would rather be able to enjoy the SS defense those 15-25 games than 15-25 PH PAs where the backup middle infielder may do a slightly better job at the plate.

Originally Posted by M2

Again, short bench, nowhere to hide. You need players. The only reason to keep Izturis on a short bench is as a defensive replacement and the Reds don't need that.

I really am not too worried about the 5th bat off the bench, though. I would rather have a backup SS who can play SS comptently on the off days.

Originally Posted by M2

Did you see Izturis play last year? He's getting ricketty, not to mention he could stand to drop 15-20 pounds. Also, during the past three seasons Donald has a +4 Rbaser while Izturis is a -5.

I do not have any knowledge about Izturis' weight. I would hope that he gets himself in shape to have the best chance he can to contribute to a contender next year. I know he has played 12 years in the bigs, but Izturis is still only 32. He will be 33 on OD, but I doubt he is "ricketty." As for the possibility that Donald is a slightly better baserunner, it's not like Dusty pinch runs much (nor should he). Jason Donald should only pinch run for a catcher who just got a pinch hit next year. He isn't a significantly better runner than Heisey, Paul or Hannahan and I don't think the Reds should take a starter out for Donald's potential slightly better running ability.

Donald/Izturis will have a very limited impact on many games as a bench player, the victor of the position battle will have a much bigger impact when they make their spot starts. Does a Reds' fan really want to try to watch Donald play shortstop when Cozart is out?