Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Even if Logan is average, I remember the days when the Reds didn't have average guys in the bullpen. So I'm fine with this deal.

Reds have a lot of depth in all of their pitching ranks. If a deal to improve the team comes along, they are in good position to pull the string.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Having a guy who is making 2.5m or whatever (MLBTR estimated 900k for next year, so just a guess on my part) over the next two years to be something resembling league average is a breath of fresh air compared to the Mike Stanton bullpen of years past.

[klw]

Depending on the $, I am fine with two years.

[traderumor]

The numbers are pretty bad for Logan. I'm not sure why the Reds would do anything more than they had to. Apparently they must have thought this was better than they'd get in arbitration or they value him differently than they should.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by mth123

At this point, I'd guess you may find guys who have made a lot more than that in the past but are looking for work and may settle for that much. Some names on this year's list:

Jon Rauch, Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Carlos Oviedo, K-Rod, Brian Wilson, Matt Capps, Brandon Lyon, Rafael Perez, Manny Parra, Pedro Feliciano, Matt Lindstrom ...

There is a list like that every year at this time and while I have questions about Wilson, Capps and Lyon, I'd say the rest of the list would be an upgrade or at least a better fit.

Ok, I appreciate you taking up the challenge
Stats below. I picked WAR, as it seems to roll up things like K rate and other SABER stats. Also looked at WHIP and ERA. I like WHIP because I thiknk the reliever's primary job is to keep runners off base.

So, of your list, only Felicino had a higher WAR than Logan last year
I'm guessing Logan is going to make around 1 to 1.5 million next year.

All the FA pitchers made at least 3.3 million last year. Sure, there's a chance we could talk them into taking less, but we are now asking them to take a minimum 50% paycut. We are also asking former closers/setup guys to be the 3rd or 4th guy out of the pen (depends on Chapman).

I'm not really excited about the injured guys, but I guess if there was good reason to believe they could bounce back, I would listen.
I'm not trading anything for Parra, I think he's worse than Logan.

I guess I am saying, I don't see any of these guys being a big enough upgrade to jettison Logan. Felicino and Rauch might be better, and at the right price, might work, but I imagine it would be a hard sell to get the at Logan money.
Perez being a lefty is interesting, I Don't know why he only pitched 7 innings last year though.



Logan last year:
3.46 ERA, 54 IP, 1.5 WHIP, made 492k last year, no details on 2013, WAR 0.6

Players under contract by other teams (would have to give up someone in trade)

Manny Parra 1.65 WHIP, 5.06 ERA 3rd year arb guy, WAR = -0.9 made 1.2 million last year, arb case pending. (Maybe he was granted FA?)

Rafael Perez: made 2 million last year, 7IP


FAs:

Rauch: 57 ip, .98 WHIP, 3.59 ERA, WAR 0, made 3.5 million last year.

Farnsworth: 36 years old, 4.00 ERA, only 27 IP last year (don't know why), 1.33 WHIP, WAR = 0, made 3.3 million last year.

Juan Carlos Oviedo: 29 years old, 64 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, made 6 million last year. WAR = 0.5

KRod: 30 years old, WHIP 1.33, ERA 4.38, WAR = 0 made 8 million last year.

Brian Wilson: Coming off injury, made 8.5 million last year

Capps: only 29 IP last year, WHIP 1.09, made 4.5 milllion last year. I think the Twins declined his 6 million option so he's a FA.

Brandon Lyon: 2.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, WAR 0.5, 25 IP, made 5.5 million last year.

Pedro Feliciano: 62 ip, 3.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, WAR 0.8, made 2.9 million last year

Matt Lindstrom: 10 IP, 3.6 million. 3.6 million last year

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by mth123

.

Cingrani's development as a a starter is secondary to winning in 2013. If Cingrani can upgrade one of the pen spots from interchangeable guy to nasty weapon in 2013, I'd do it and worry about his future as a a starter another time. He can get innings in wnter ball if need be.

I think Cingrani could be a servable LH reliever, but he really needs to work on that breaking ball. If he can get the breaking ball to just be average, then he's a weapon. I think it's worth investing some more AAA time in Cingrani (at least until rosters expand).

If the NL Central ends up being a tight race, or if Marshall gets DLed, I sacrifice Cingrani's development time. Right now, I don't see the delta between Cingranni and Logan being even one win over the course of the season.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Ok, I appreciate you taking up the challenge
Stats below. I picked WAR, as it seems to roll up things like K rate and other SABER stats. Also looked at WHIP and ERA. I like WHIP because I thiknk the reliever's primary job is to keep runners off base.

So, of your list, only Felicino had a higher WAR than Logan last year
I'm guessing Logan is going to make around 1 to 1.5 million next year.

All the FA pitchers made at least 3.3 million last year. Sure, there's a chance we could talk them into taking less, but we are now asking them to take a minimum 50% paycut. We are also asking former closers/setup guys to be the 3rd or 4th guy out of the pen (depends on Chapman).

I'm not really excited about the injured guys, but I guess if there was good reason to believe they could bounce back, I would listen.
I'm not trading anything for Parra, I think he's worse than Logan.

I guess I am saying, I don't see any of these guys being a big enough upgrade to jettison Logan. Felicino and Rauch might be better, and at the right price, might work, but I imagine it would be a hard sell to get the at Logan money.
Perez being a lefty is interesting, I Don't know why he only pitched 7 innings last year though.



Logan last year:
3.46 ERA, 54 IP, 1.5 WHIP, made 492k last year, no details on 2013, WAR 0.6

Players under contract by other teams (would have to give up someone in trade)

Manny Parra 1.65 WHIP, 5.06 ERA 3rd year arb guy, WAR = -0.9 made 1.2 million last year, arb case pending. (Maybe he was granted FA?)

Rafael Perez: made 2 million last year, 7IP


FAs:

Rauch: 57 ip, .98 WHIP, 3.59 ERA, WAR 0, made 3.5 million last year.

Farnsworth: 36 years old, 4.00 ERA, only 27 IP last year (don't know why), 1.33 WHIP, WAR = 0, made 3.3 million last year.

Juan Carlos Oviedo: 29 years old, 64 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, made 6 million last year. WAR = 0.5

KRod: 30 years old, WHIP 1.33, ERA 4.38, WAR = 0 made 8 million last year.

Brian Wilson: Coming off injury, made 8.5 million last year

Capps: only 29 IP last year, WHIP 1.09, made 4.5 milllion last year. I think the Twins declined his 6 million option so he's a FA.

Brandon Lyon: 2.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, WAR 0.5, 25 IP, made 5.5 million last year.

Pedro Feliciano: 62 ip, 3.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, WAR 0.8, made 2.9 million last year

Matt Lindstrom: 10 IP, 3.6 million. 3.6 million last year

While I realize that WHIP is whipped by some as a meaningful stat, in what world does a 1.50 WHIP make you want to give the guy a 2 year contract? Two years running, he's had good April/May's, gets everyone excited, then tanks for the biggest part of the season. Just not a fan of any deal where you are paying a below average reliever anything above league minimum.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by traderumor

While I realize that WHIP is whipped by some as a meaningful stat, in what world does a 1.50 WHIP make you want to give the guy a 2 year contract? Two years running, he's had good April/May's, gets everyone excited, then tanks for the biggest part of the season. Just not a fan of any deal where you are paying a below average reliever anything above league minimum.

I agree, Whip hurts Logan's case.
I decided before I looked up the numbers, that I was going to use WHIP.
I didn't want to change that decision to strengthen my case.

I was actually surprised that WAR was so friendly to Logan. (I used baseball reference).

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Ok, I appreciate you taking up the challenge
Stats below. I picked WAR, as it seems to roll up things like K rate and other SABER stats. Also looked at WHIP and ERA. I like WHIP because I thiknk the reliever's primary job is to keep runners off base.

So, of your list, only Felicino had a higher WAR than Logan last year
I'm guessing Logan is going to make around 1 to 1.5 million next year.

All the FA pitchers made at least 3.3 million last year. Sure, there's a chance we could talk them into taking less, but we are now asking them to take a minimum 50% paycut. We are also asking former closers/setup guys to be the 3rd or 4th guy out of the pen (depends on Chapman).

I'm not really excited about the injured guys, but I guess if there was good reason to believe they could bounce back, I would listen.
I'm not trading anything for Parra, I think he's worse than Logan.

I guess I am saying, I don't see any of these guys being a big enough upgrade to jettison Logan. Felicino and Rauch might be better, and at the right price, might work, but I imagine it would be a hard sell to get the at Logan money.
Perez being a lefty is interesting, I Don't know why he only pitched 7 innings last year though.



Logan last year:
3.46 ERA, 54 IP, 1.5 WHIP, made 492k last year, no details on 2013, WAR 0.6

Players under contract by other teams (would have to give up someone in trade)

Manny Parra 1.65 WHIP, 5.06 ERA 3rd year arb guy, WAR = -0.9 made 1.2 million last year, arb case pending. (Maybe he was granted FA?)

Rafael Perez: made 2 million last year, 7IP


FAs:

Rauch: 57 ip, .98 WHIP, 3.59 ERA, WAR 0, made 3.5 million last year.

Farnsworth: 36 years old, 4.00 ERA, only 27 IP last year (don't know why), 1.33 WHIP, WAR = 0, made 3.3 million last year.

Juan Carlos Oviedo: 29 years old, 64 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, made 6 million last year. WAR = 0.5

KRod: 30 years old, WHIP 1.33, ERA 4.38, WAR = 0 made 8 million last year.

Brian Wilson: Coming off injury, made 8.5 million last year

Capps: only 29 IP last year, WHIP 1.09, made 4.5 milllion last year. I think the Twins declined his 6 million option so he's a FA.

Brandon Lyon: 2.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, WAR 0.5, 25 IP, made 5.5 million last year.

Pedro Feliciano: 62 ip, 3.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, WAR 0.8, made 2.9 million last year

Matt Lindstrom: 10 IP, 3.6 million. 3.6 million last year

Based on the money those other guys earned and their mediocre performances, Logan looks like a deal.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by traderumor

The numbers are pretty bad for Logan. I'm not sure why the Reds would do anything more than they had to. Apparently they must have thought this was better than they'd get in arbitration or they value him differently than they should.

Actually, the final part of your statement is they value him differently than you do, not than they should. I suspect they're privy to much more than here see and know. That's fine, they're our opinions etc.

Jocketty has done this quite a lot over the last several years, giving guys like this two year deals. The common thread, IMO, is that should they bust (and we know some do), the hit financially is not that great. MLBTradeRumors projected LO to get about $900K. And it means he probably would get around $1.5M or so next year, maybe a bit more. So if this is a two year $2M deal, that's some savings. Plus, if they have to cut him loose next year, the hit is lessened because the minimum at this point is so high ($490K this year, $500K next) and whoever picks him up pays that amount regardless. It gives that cost certainty that is important. And it possibly makes him a more valuable trade chip since he's locked up for another year. Just some added thoughts.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Actually, the final part of your statement is they value him differently than you do, not than they should. I suspect they're privy to much more than here see and know. That's fine, they're our opinions etc.

Jocketty has done this quite a lot over the last several years, giving guys like this two year deals. The common thread, IMO, is that should they bust (and we know some do), the hit financially is not that great. MLBTradeRumors projected LO to get about $900K. And it means he probably would get around $1.5M or so next year, maybe a bit more. So if this is a two year $2M deal, that's some savings. Plus, if they have to cut him loose next year, the hit is lessened because the minimum at this point is so high ($490K this year, $500K next) and whoever picks him up pays that amount regardless. It gives that cost certainty that is important. And it possibly makes him a more valuable trade chip since he's locked up for another year. Just some added thoughts.

Yea, then why has he stunk the last two years? What makes you think they "fixed" him and now feel like he's worth above league minimum? I have performance to go on, you have "the Reds know more than us." Sure, but unless they discovered the holy grail for the guy this offseason, I'm gonna stand by facts that say he's a bad reliever. It's a small contract that I usually don't quibble about, but Ondrusek stinks.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Yea, then why has he stunk the last two years? What makes you think they "fixed" him and now feel like he's worth above league minimum? I have performance to go on, you have "the Reds know more than us." Sure, but unless they discovered the holy grail for the guy this offseason, I'm gonna stand by facts that say he's a bad reliever. It's a small contract that I usually don't quibble about, but Ondrusek stinks.

I didn't use the word "fixed" - that's your's for your response. You chose to say the Reds "should know" and all I'm suggesting is that's your opinion. I believe others have pointed out that Ondrusek wasn't as bad as some suggest.

My only point, other than stating that your's was your opinion, was that such two year deals, which the club has had a penchant for in recent years, aren't that threatening financially. Ondrusek isn't going to receive the ML minimum in arbitration. My guess is that when we see the numbers, this will be much ado about nothing.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I didn't use the word "fixed" - that's your's for your response. You chose to say the Reds "should know" and all I'm suggesting is that's your opinion. I believe others have pointed out that Ondrusek wasn't as bad as some suggest.

My only point, other than stating that your's was your opinion, was that such two year deals, which the club has had a penchant for in recent years, aren't that threatening financially. Ondrusek isn't going to receive the ML minimum in arbitration. My guess is that when we see the numbers, this will be much ado about nothing.

You leaned on "I trust the Reds." Well, if you trust the Reds, then you would have to be trusting that they believe he is going to perform differently than he has thus far in his career, esp. the last two seasons. If he is going to perform differently, then they must have made an adjustment, knowing something that those who know his history do not know. That was my logic for using the term "fixed."

[757690]

I could care less what Ondrusek's numbers have been, or what his salary is for the next two years. My problem with this deal is that relievers, especially middle relievers, rarely have more than two good years in them.

The reason is that most have average stuff, but can get by on being unknown. It takes a season or two before the whole league sees a middle reliever enough to learn enough to hit him, but once they do, he's usually easy to hit. I think we have already started to see that happen with Ondrusek, and I think he will only become more and more hittable the longer he pitches.

That's why a think a good team keeps rebuilding their middle releif every year or two, and doesn't sign guys who have been there for a few years.

I also think the Reds, or any team, could find guys as good as Ondrusek off the waiver wire after spring training, ala Simon last year. There are always plenty available at that time every year.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Based on the money those other guys earned and their mediocre performances, Logan looks like a deal.

Except in Late January, those guys aren't going to get last year's money. They'll get something close to the 900K that Ondrusek is getting and for the same money I'd rather have any of them over Logan. Next year there will be another list of guys available in late January who I'd also rather have.

[redsmetz]

Sheldon's take on the signing where he has the same feeling of those not thrilled with the deal, but acknowledges the club's recent propensity for this type of signing.

Also I looked at Ondrusek's game log from last year and noticed his excellant ratio regarding inherited runners scoring (only 4 out of 42). I wonder too how his numbers look eliminating a couple games - certainly the 5 run fiasco in May - interesting looking at the boxscore and PBP there; that baby just got away from him, and perhaps the 3 walk outing in July, I believe. Again looking game by game, overall I think he had a decent season. There were bumps and he likely needs to build stamina, I think. But 2012 was not a bad season overall.

http://blogredmachine.com/2013/01/18...two-year-deal/