Pirates DFA Zach Stewart

[TRF]

Originally Posted by medford

Man I hate that argument anytime its made regarding a trade (though you counterbalance it nicely in your post, so this isn't really a rant against your post, just that portion). Of course it matters how prospects or players turn out after a trade. it matters that Frank Robinson went on to win an MVP and triple crown after leaving the reds, it matters Arroyo went from a 6th starter to a reliable innings eater w/ better than average results with the Reds.

If the point of baseball is to win games/championships, then it absolutely matters how the players involved in trades perform following the trades. Otherwise, why the heck are we even paying attention.

The Reds traded for KGJ based on past performance. I hope they always make that trade. What happened after, happened.

In the Rolen trade, we knew his best days were long past. We knew he'd likely never play 100 games in a season, and did so just once. I'm not sure the benefit was worth the cost in terms of his production. Who is to say that Votto wouldn't have morphed into the player he is without Rolen? Or Phillips for that matter. The only thing about this trade that cannot be quantified is the intangibles. From a production standpoint, EE alone has outproduced Rolen and it isn't all that close.

[M2]

Originally Posted by TRF

EE is an athletic ballplayer that was playing out of position. He's pretty good at 1B would probably be average in LF and he has a cannon for an arm.

He came up as a 3B, played almost his whole life there. He was not out of position. He's played 17 innings of OF in his career and by all accounts was miserable at it. Insisting he could handle the position is a bit like insisting he could be a superior cricket player. We're never going to find out.

The reality is he was struggling mightily with the Reds and starting to get expensive. He was in serious danger of getting released that winter. His trade value was just about in the toilet.

So overrated pitching prospect, a 3B circling the drain and a reliever for one of the better 3Bs in baseball? In a heartbeat. Looks especially good seeing that the entire direction of the club reversed itself once Rolen arrived.

[TRF]

Drew Stubbs was played at leadoff almost his entire career. want to convince me he's a leadoff hitter.

Just because the Reds said he was a 3B, doesn't make it so.

[M2]

Originally Posted by TRF

Drew Stubbs was played at leadoff almost his entire career. want to convince me he's a leadoff hitter.

Just because the Reds said he was a 3B, doesn't make it so.

Stubbs washed out as a leadoff hitter (and got traded). Encaracion washed out as a 3B (and got traded).

If you want to argue that the Reds stuck with both long after it became obvious, I'll agree with you. However, my opinion is EdE had a better chance of keeping his head above water at 3B.

Because of Votto, EdE never was going to get a crack at 1B with the Reds. And obviously I'm viewing EdE in the OF as nothing more than a pipe dream.

[lollipopcurve]

He was in serious danger of getting released that winter.

And indeed, Toronto DFAd EdE in June 2010. No one was willing to trade for him. I guess the Reds should have foreseen how unwanted he would be, followed by how awesome he would be.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by M2

Stubbs washed out as a leadoff hitter (and got traded). Encaracion washed out as a 3B (and got traded).

If you want to argue that the Reds stuck with both long after it became obvious, I'll agree with you. However, my opinion is EdE had a better chance of keeping his head above water at 3B.

Because of Votto, EdE never was going to get a crack at 1B with the Reds. And obviously I'm viewing EdE in the OF as nothing more than a pipe dream.

well, he had the requisite speed to play OF. He's got a very strong arm. He certainly was open to the idea in TOR and i believe with the Reds as well. I think it was another case of the Reds development unable to recognize either the player's flaw or their own. sometimes guysdon't fit. as for 1B, EE was a Red long before Votto made it to the show. As of last season, I'm not entirely certain Votto is the clear upgrade. this year will be telling in that regard.

If Craig Biggio, at age 37 can move to CF, EE at age 29 can certainly handle LF.

And EE is going to hit at least another 200 HR's in his career. Maybe 300. The Reds didn't get one of the best third basemen in the game. The got a guy that USED to be the best.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

And indeed, Toronto DFAd EdE in June 2010. No one was willing to trade for him. I guess the Reds should have foreseen how unwanted he would be, followed by how awesome he would be.

And Texas basically offered up Nellie Cruz to anyone that would make a claim. And Hamilton was a Rule V pick. and on and on. It happens.

Does anyone doubt that EE in LF or 1B for any team would be a boon to the offense?

[lollipopcurve]

And EE is going to hit at least another 200 HR's in his career. Maybe 300.

You sure? That's a lot of dingers.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by TRF

well, he had the requisite speed to play OF. He's got a very strong arm. He certainly was open to the idea in TOR and i believe with the Reds as well. I think it was another case of the Reds development unable to recognize either the player's flaw or their own. sometimes guysdon't fit. as for 1B, EE was a Red long before Votto made it to the show. As of last season, I'm not entirely certain Votto is the clear upgrade. this year will be telling in that regard.

If Craig Biggio, at age 37 can move to CF, EE at age 29 can certainly handle LF.

And EE is going to hit at least another 200 HR's in his career. Maybe 300. The Reds didn't get one of the best third basemen in the game. The got a guy that USED to be the best.

A guy being put in a position is much different than a guy playing a position. Biggio never "played" CF at 37, he was in the game as the CFer by default. I imagine EE would be about the same in LF at any age. But as M2 pointed out, all we have the ability to say is "I guess..."

[M2]

Originally Posted by TRF

If Craig Biggio, at age 37 can move to CF, EE at age 29 can certainly handle LF.

It's not a straight up age equation. Not everybody can play OF in the majors (e.g. Yonder Alonso in LF was a supremely horrible idea). In fact, Encarnacion likely never will. His optimal position has become DH.

As for 1B, by the time EdE bonked at 3B it was clear that Votto was going to be the 1B of the future.

Originally Posted by TRF

And EE is going to hit at least another 200 HR's in his career. Maybe 300. The Reds didn't get one of the best third basemen in the game. The got a guy that USED to be the best.

Go back to 2009 and 2010 and list the 3Bs better than Rolen in those seasons. It's a short list.

Also go back to Aug. 23, 2009. That's the date on which Rolen started playing regularly for the Reds. Check the team's record heading into that game. Make sure to add it to eight years of misery prior to that date.

Then look up the team's record was after Rolen stepped in, not just in 2009, but from Aug. 23, 2009 through the 2012 season.

Jocketty made one of the best trades we'll ever see when he landed Scott Rolen. If you can find a deal which completely changed a club's fortunes as immediately and as much as the Rolen deal, I'd love to see it. I've done a good bit of looking around and I can't find anything close.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by TRF

And Texas basically offered up Nellie Cruz to anyone that would make a claim. And Hamilton was a Rule V pick. and on and on. It happens.

Does anyone doubt that EE in LF or 1B for any team would be a boon to the offense?

I'm guessing he had a career year last year. He got the contract, I'd say he will fall back to 2010-2011 production levels.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by TRF

EE is an athletic ballplayer that was playing out of position. He's pretty good at 1B would probably be average in LF and he has a cannon for an arm. OF accuracy is not the same as IF accuracy. Had he been moved to LF then, and not only were people here talking about it, it was mentioned by the Reds as well, The Reds offense might look a bit different.

Roenicke was certainly replaceable, but it isn't like he's junk. He's had success, though not GREAT success. He manages to keep working at the MLB level. Stewart is the disappointment, BUT AT THE TIME her was considered one of the Reds top prospects.

That is three players for one guy without a single full season as a Red.

I won't argue the intangibles here. Clearly Rolen has been a great clubhouse guy, role model for Votto, Phillips, Bruce and now Frazier. For anyone to suggest this was lopsided is absurd as EE looks to be a 35+ HR threat for the foreseeable future. Last year he had a better offensive season than ANY Red. Now Everyone probably thought EE was capable of breaking out like that, but he never seemed to as a Red. though 26 HR's in 2008 showed his potential, injury kept him down.

So Rolen is likely no longer a Red. EE will probably hit 38 HR's next year with another .900+ OPS as yes, the DH and occasional 1B (68 games last year). If he stays healthy he's got three full years and a club option for a 4th left on his deal.if over the next three years he hits like he did in 2012, the option will likely get picked up. so, he's looking at close to 150 HR's over the next 4 seasons, 400 RBI, 300+ BB's.

All while Rolen bounces grandkids on his knees.

Perhaps the trade was necessary for the Reds to mature, to grow as a team. Perhaps they needed a leadership example for guys like Votto and Philips to emulate so they in turn become similar leaders.

And maybe he could have been had for less. Maybe not. But three players for one with chronic back and shoulder problems is a lot to pay. That is my opinion and it won't change.

I get the feeling that people are reading your opinion like you don't like Rolen and you didn't care for us getting him at all. I read it like you do like him, are glad we got him, but felt like we overpaid in order to do so.

I love me some Scotty Roles. But I really do feel like we should've been able to pull off that deal for considerably less. Edwin certainly would've looked good out there in left the past few years.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

You sure? That's a lot of dingers.

149, and he just turned thirty.

Prior to last year he averaged a HR every 26.2 PA's

After last year he now averages 1 every 23.3 PA's

So if he keeps it up at that rate he'll need 3471 more PA's to get 300, if he averages 579 PA's a year (something he's done twice) then he might do it from age 30-36.

Not likely

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I get the feeling that people are reading your opinion like you don't like Rolen and you didn't care for us getting him at all. I read it like you do like him, are glad we got him, but felt like we overpaid in order to do so.

I love me some Scotty Roles. But I really do feel like we should've been able to pull off that deal for considerably less. Edwin certainly would've looked good out there in left the past few years.

Even better would be Kearns at 3rd.

When EE passes Jason Kendall's ill fated LF numbers (29 games) then he can officially be deemed a LF but at this point he has 2 more games in the OF than Roy Oswalt

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I get the feeling that people are reading your opinion like you don't like Rolen and you didn't care for us getting him at all. I read it like you do like him, are glad we got him, but felt like we overpaid in order to do so.

I love me some Scotty Roles. But I really do feel like we should've been able to pull off that deal for considerably less. Edwin certainly would've looked good out there in left the past few years.

He was available to play the OF right after he got DFA'ed.

If you want to argue that the Reds should have picked him up then, fine.

But once he was DFA'ed and made available to every team in baseball to pick up free of charge (or close to it), that ends the trade value right there.

With Stewart's DFA on top of the DFAs of both EdE and Josh Roenicke, we can finally close the books on this deal and the circular logic that seems to follow.

In the time between the deal and his DFA, EdE put up a 2.0 WAR (ref, baseball-reference.com) for Toronto.
Stewart put up -1.8 WAR before he was DFA'ed.
Roenicke put up -0.7 in WAR before he was DFA'ed by Toronto.

That's a total of -0.5 WAR for the Blue Jays and others in the deal.

Rolen put up 6.9 WAR in 3 1/4 seasons with the Reds. If you only include the WAR he earned while under the original contract (before re-signing with the Reds), his WAR stood at 5.1.

So Jocketty gave up three players who would, collectively, accumulate less than replacement level results while garnering a 3B who performed at an All-Star level.

Paging Captain Obvious. Captain Obvious, please pick up the courtesy phone at the front desk.