Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal

[Kc61]

Not defending Ondrusek, who I thought was disappointing last year, mostly late in the season.

But overall in three MLB seasons he has allowed 155 hits in 174.2 innings and has a 1.34 WHIP overall. (I like to see a reliever at around 1.3 WHIP or better.) He has a 15-7 W-L record and a 3.45 ERA. And, based on Shelton's article, last season he did well with inherited baserunners. Ondrusek allowed 1.1 homers per nine inning lifetime, which is not bad for a GABP pitcher.

His big issue, seems to me, is walks. His lifetime K rate is 6.1 per nine, his walk rate is 4.1, and the walk rate has gone in the wrong direction over time. His K rate isn't great, but not terrible either.

My point is that despite complaints about his stuff, and despite some unhappy peripherals, Ondrusek has a reasonable set of performance stats. Last season, one could argue that Logan was ok for most of the season and just had a terrible August-September.

I tend to agree that the Reds will have a hard time finding room for him on the roster and that two years for Logan is a surprise. But his performance measures have been pretty reasonable for a middle reliever and I don't think it's a ridiculous signing.

[_Sir_Charles_]

2.3 million 2 year deal for Ondrusek.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/reds-on...5295--mlb.html

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

2.3 million 2 year deal for Ondrusek.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/reds-on...5295--mlb.html

That's not going to break the bank, but I still feel it is money misallocated.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

2.3 million 2 year deal for Ondrusek.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/reds-on...5295--mlb.html

1.8 Million and 1 year too much IMO. The Reds have 10 guys for 7 spots in the pen and he's my 10th choice of that group personally. As for keeping him around for minor league depth, there are a lot of guys looking to hook on somewhere who could serve that same purpose.

IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.

[camisadelgolf]

The ages are on April 1st. Does this mean Sam LeCure is the 13th pitcher with Hoover being the 14th? That's some pretty good depth before you get into guys like Todd Redmond, Tony Cingrani, Pedro Villarreal, Dan Corcino, et al.

SALARY	AGE	SRVTIME	NAME
7.400	27.12	5.000	Johnny Cueto
6.500	36.10	10.150	Bronson Arroyo
5.100*	26.91	4.017	Homer Bailey
4.600*	25.31	3.079	Mat Latos
4.500	30.59	6.088	Sean Marshall
4.000	28.79	7.020	Jonathan Broxton
3.100	30.88	5.146	Nick Masset
2.900*	25.39	3.000	Mike Leake
2.000	25.09	2.034	Aroldis Chapman
1.200	29.01	3.168	Jose Arredondo
0.950	28.13	2.144	Logan Ondrusek
0.800*	31.90	3.146	Alfredo Simon
0.500	28.91	2.072	Sam LeCure

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by mth123

1.8 Million and 1 year too much IMO. The Reds have 10 guys for 7 spots in the pen and he's my 10th choice of that group personally. As for keeping him around for minor league depth, there are a lot of guys looking to hook on somewhere who could serve that same purpose.

IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.

Completely agree. No way Ondrusek deserves a BP spot over Hoover.

Again, we are talking about a middle reliever, so this move will not sink our season, but it was still a poor move by Walt.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Completely agree. No way Ondrusek deserves a BP spot over Hoover.

Again, we are talking about a middle reliever, so this move will not sink our season, but it was still a poor move by Walt.

Wait a minute. A "poor" move? Let's not write Walt off so easily. He's not prone to "poor" moves. Surprising, maybe, but I think "poor" sells Walt short.

In fact, from a financial point of view, the move makes sense. Ondrusek may come up short in the beloved peripherals, but he has pitched pretty successfully most of the time. A two-year deal for just over two million is cheap by today's standards.

So Walt has locked in a veteran reliever, who he knows and trusts, and who has pitched ok most of the time, on a pretty low cost deal.

Walt obviously prefers this to the waiver wire or promoting relievers who aren't good or aren't ready.

Now - if the Reds misuse Logan, that's another story. If the Reds send down Hoover to keep Logan, that would be controversial. If he made Logan a late inning guy, that would be controversial.

But last year, Logan spent time at AAA and didn't make the playoff roster. The Reds haven't shown that they are in love with this pitcher, they obviously know his limitations.

So, to me, it's a surprising move but it provides valuable depth. Financially, it's a low cost contract. Baseball wise, well, it's hard to see how all these guys can make the roster, but let's see how things shake out.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by mth123

IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.

Not a chance.

Edit: I unfortunately retract this statement. There's probably a distinct chance. It would be an idiotic move, but it looks possible.

[OnBaseMachine]

Not a fan of this signing, especially if it means Hoover begins the season in Louisville, when he is a much better pitcher than Ondrusek.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake to start the season

Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Masset, Ondrusek, Hoover and one of Simon/Arredondo/etc. (I let ST sort out the back of the pen)

Chapman starts the season in AAA starting. Once ready, he comes up and Leake goes down. Once Chapman nears his innings limit (or just to limit his innings), bring up Leake as needed...rinse and repeat.

If Masset isn't ready, he goes to the DL and one of the other RP options comes up.

I really don't see why this is so complicated.

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

That's not going to break the bank, but I still feel it is money misallocated.

I agree. Logan is replaceable, and that money would be better served elsewhere.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Wait a minute. A "poor" move? Let's not write Walt off so easily. He's not prone to "poor" moves. Surprising, maybe, but I think "poor" sells Walt short.

Even the best managers/ decision makers make poor moves. Saying that Walt made a poor move does not mean that he is a poor GM. Far from it.

Originally Posted by Kc61

In fact, from a financial point of view, the move makes sense. Ondrusek may come up short in the beloved peripherals, but he has pitched pretty successfully most of the time. A two-year deal for just over two million is cheap by today's standards.

It makes no financial sense to sign bad players at all, let alone to multi-year deals. Logan Ondrusek has been worse than a replacement player for the last two years and he was barely better than replacement level in 2010. Signing bad players to contracts is bad business by any era's standards.

Originally Posted by Kc61

So Walt has locked in a veteran reliever, who he knows and trusts, and who has pitched ok most of the time, on a pretty low cost deal.

Walt most certainly knows Logan Ondrusek, but he surely should not trust him to get guys out. There are three things that a pitcher should try to do, strike out as many guys as possible, walk as few guys as possible and give up as few home runs as possible. Logan is average to below average at striking guys out, his walk rate is terrible and his home run rate was bad last year. Calling him okay is calling 2012 Miguel Cairo OK.

Originally Posted by Kc61

Walt obviously prefers this to the waiver wire or promoting relievers who aren't good or aren't ready.

Just because Walt does something or prefers something, does not always make it the correct move. The waiver wire was very good to Walt last year where he grabbed Alfredo Simon, who is certainly better than Logan. Furthermore, for a list of readily available relievers who are better than Logan please refer to post #27 made by mth123.

Originally Posted by Kc61

Now - if the Reds misuse Logan, that's another story. If the Reds send down Hoover to keep Logan, that would be controversial. If he made Logan a late inning guy, that would be controversial.

Every use of a less than replacement level pitcher is a misuse. There are many available pitchers who are better than him. He doesn't do anything that a pitcher can control well.

Originally Posted by Kc61

But last year, Logan spent time at AAA and didn't make the playoff roster. The Reds haven't shown that they are in love with this pitcher, they obviously know his limitations.

If Walt is properly assessing Logan's limitations, then why are they signing him to a multi-year deal? Again, I am not saying that this move has sunk the Reds, just that this move, in isolation, is poor.

Originally Posted by Kc61

So, to me, it's a surprising move but it provides valuable depth. Financially, it's a low cost contract. Baseball wise, well, it's hard to see how all these guys can make the roster, but let's see how things shake out.

Sure, this move adds depth, but so does signing a better pitcher, who is a free agent, to the same contract. Signing the better pitcher also improves the Reds as a ballclub. Look at camisadelgolf's post of all of the pitchers the Reds already have under contract, did the Reds need to sign Logan for depth? Is he an improvement at all? I think not.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake to start the season

Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Masset, Ondrusek, Hoover and one of Simon/Arredondo/etc. (I let ST sort out the back of the pen)

Chapman starts the season in AAA starting. Once ready, he comes up and Leake goes down. Once Chapman nears his innings limit (or just to limit his innings), bring up Leake as needed...rinse and repeat.

If Masset isn't ready, he goes to the DL and one of the other RP options comes up.

I really don't see why this is so complicated.

Because it will be Broxton, Marshall, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Masset, Lecure and Leake in the pen unless some one is hurt. They may send Leake down to start (with a $3 Million salary) and keep Simon. Hard to see Hoover or Cingrani, who IMO are two of the top seven arms, making the opening day roster. The lack of a second lefty makes Arredondo a lock IMO. Masset is making $3.1 Million. Leake will be making around $3 Million. Simon and Ondrusek will be making around $900K each.

Leake won't be able to be sent down without clearing waivers after his option clock expires in Mid-April or so. Pretty sure Arredondo ($1.2 million guarantee) can't be sent down without waivers either. Not sure on Ondrusek's status. Simon is out of options. The Reds should have cut Ondrusek loose and signed another 11th or 12th man type to a minor league deal. A lefty would have been a better fit, but there are a lot of righties out there who are better too.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Leake to start the season

Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Masset, Ondrusek, Hoover and one of Simon/Arredondo/etc. (I let ST sort out the back of the pen)

Chapman starts the season in AAA starting. Once ready, he comes up and Leake goes down. Once Chapman nears his innings limit (or just to limit his innings), bring up Leake as needed...rinse and repeat.

If Masset isn't ready, he goes to the DL and one of the other RP options comes up.

I really don't see why this is so complicated.

There is no chance Chapman goes to AAA. None.

I would bet that Chapman starts in the bullpen and comes to the rotation some time in June.

[Scrap Irony]

This signing might make him easier to deal.

Cost certainty is very valuable.

I might also make Arredondo, Simon, or (gulp) Hoover more available.