Reds, Logan Ondrusek Agree To Deal

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

This signing might make him easier to deal.

Cost certainty is very valuable.

I might also make Arredondo, Simon, or (gulp) Hoover more available.

Possible, but there are better guys out there who won't cost any talent for similar cash. One thing it may do is discourage teams from claiming him on waivers. Why would they want to take on an interchangebale part at $1.4 Million for next year when so many are out there for the minimum?

[757690]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Wait a minute. A "poor" move? Let's not write Walt off so easily. He's not prone to "poor" moves. Surprising, maybe, but I think "poor" sells Walt short.

In fact, from a financial point of view, the move makes sense. Ondrusek may come up short in the beloved peripherals, but he has pitched pretty successfully most of the time. A two-year deal for just over two million is cheap by today's standards.

So Walt has locked in a veteran reliever, who he knows and trusts, and who has pitched ok most of the time, on a pretty low cost deal.

Walt obviously prefers this to the waiver wire or promoting relievers who aren't good or aren't ready.

Now - if the Reds misuse Logan, that's another story. If the Reds send down Hoover to keep Logan, that would be controversial. If he made Logan a late inning guy, that would be controversial.

But last year, Logan spent time at AAA and didn't make the playoff roster. The Reds haven't shown that they are in love with this pitcher, they obviously know his limitations.

So, to me, it's a surprising move but it provides valuable depth. Financially, it's a low cost contract. Baseball wise, well, it's hard to see how all these guys can make the roster, but let's see how things shake out.

That is a good point. I don't think this guarantees Logan a spot on the opening day roster. However, I also don't have a problem if he beats out Hoover in spring training for a spot. Hoover was good in his brief time with the big club last season, but he by no means secured a spot on this season's opening day roster. He's a 24 year old with 28 MLB innings under his belt. It wouldn't be a crime if he started the season in AAA.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

That is a good point. I don't think this guarantees Logan a spot on the opening day roster. However, I also don't have a problem if he beats out Hoover in spring training for a spot. Hoover was good in his brief time with the big club last season, but he by no means secured a spot on this season's opening day roster. He's a 24 year old with 28 MLB innings under his belt. It wouldn't be a crime if he started the season in AAA.

I'm all for making guys knock down the door on a contending team, but Hoover's 30.2 IP represents about a half a season for a reliever and with an ERA+ of 208, a K/9 of 9.1 and a K/BB of 2.38, I'd say that pretty much left the door in splinters IMO.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

There is no chance Chapman goes to AAA. None.

I would bet that Chapman starts in the bullpen and comes to the rotation some time in June.

None? Zero chance at all? That's a bit over the top IMO. If he's not quite ready to start come the start of the season, you really think they'll stick him in the bullpen and delay his preparation even MORE? Now if he's ready for starting at the start of the season, he'll be in the rotation. But I don't think they'll hesitate for a second to keep him on schedule with a short stop in Louisville if it's needed. Becoming a starter for him is all about routine IMO. Getting him on one and then switching it on opening day is kinda silly.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by mth123

Because it will be Broxton, Marshall, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Masset, Lecure and Leake in the pen unless some one is hurt. They may send Leake down to start (with a $3 Million salary) and keep Simon. Hard to see Hoover or Cingrani, who IMO are two of the top seven arms, making the opening day roster. The lack of a second lefty makes Arredondo a lock IMO. Masset is making $3.1 Million. Leake will be making around $3 Million. Simon and Ondrusek will be making around $900K each.

Leake won't be able to be sent down without clearing waivers after his option clock expires in Mid-April or so. Pretty sure Arredondo ($1.2 million guarantee) can't be sent down without waivers either. Not sure on Ondrusek's status. Simon is out of options. The Reds should have cut Ondrusek loose and signed another 11th or 12th man type to a minor league deal. A lefty would have been a better fit, but there are a lot of righties out there who are better too.

I'm not versed on who has options or not. Obviously that changes things. But I think it's very clear that the big value that Leake has is his ability to be a starter. He doesn't look to be a good relief candidate. Using him as a "long man" won't get him enough work to be used as a viable starter if he's needed. And he WILL be needed regardless of how Chapman works out. Because even if things go perfectly with Aroldis, his innings will be limited and Leake is that next option.

In regards to Logan, I probably like him more than most. But if he doesn't perform well, make a change...just like most any of the 'penners.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by 757690

That is a good point. I don't think this guarantees Logan a spot on the opening day roster. However, I also don't have a problem if he beats out Hoover in spring training for a spot. Hoover was good in his brief time with the big club last season, but he by no means secured a spot on this season's opening day roster. He's a 24 year old with 28 MLB innings under his belt. It wouldn't be a crime if he started the season in AAA.

Agreed. Hoover looks to have a great future, but he's by no means a lock. He could very easily stink it up in ST. I only see 3 "locks" for our pen right now. Marshall, LeCure & Broxton. The rest are up for grabs.

[757690]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'm all for making guys knock down the door on a contending team, but Hoover's 30.2 IP represents about a half a season for a reliever and with an ERA+ of 208, a K/9 of 9.1 and a K/BB of 2.38, I'd say that pretty much left the door in splinters IMO.

I just can't see how 30 innings guarantees anything. I obviously like Hoover way more than Ondusek, but if Hoover has a crappy spring, I have no problem starting him in AAA.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I'm not versed on who has options or not. Obviously that changes things. But I think it's very clear that the big value that Leake has is his ability to be a starter. He doesn't look to be a good relief candidate. Using him as a "long man" won't get him enough work to be used as a viable starter if he's needed. And he WILL be needed regardless of how Chapman works out. Because even if things go perfectly with Aroldis, his innings will be limited and Leake is that next option.

In regards to Logan, I probably like him more than most. But if he doesn't perform well, make a change...just like most any of the 'penners.

Leake was offered $2.65 Million and filed for $3.5 Million. His salary will be somewhere around $3 Million. He's not going to AAA IMO. If they need him to start, he can go 3 or 4 the first time and be ready to go 5 or 6 the second time.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by mth123

Leake was offered $2.65 Million and filed for $3.5 Million. His salary will be somewhere around $3 Million. He's not going to AAA IMO. If they need him to start, he can go 3 or 4 the first time and be ready to go 5 or 6 the second time.

I think Walt has already implied that Chapman may begin the season in the bullpen to keep his innings down. That's what I expect.

I think Leake will begin in the rotation. Same starting five as last year.

I think the bullpen will be a logjam and will include Chapman. Don't think Aroldis will close, think he will pitch longer stints with Brox closing.

Then, at some point, Aroldis spends ten days at AAA and starts two games there. He then comes back to start for the Reds. Somebody drops out of the rotation and things are re-set.

Obviously, a guess, but that's what I would expect.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by mth123

1.8 Million and 1 year too much IMO. The Reds have 10 guys for 7 spots in the pen and he's my 10th choice of that group personally. As for keeping him around for minor league depth, there are a lot of guys looking to hook on somewhere who could serve that same purpose.

IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.

Firstly, I doubt an arbitrator would give the major league minimum to an arbitration eligible player with decent stats.

Secondly, agreeing to a deal with an arbitration eligible player just means you weren't willing to release him.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Firstly, I doubt an arbitrator would give the major league minimum to an arbitration eligible player with decent stats.

Secondly, agreeing to a deal with an arbitration eligible player just means you weren't willing to release him.

No kidding. Agreeing to the secnd year for $1.4 million was not only unnecessary, it was an overpay.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by mth123

No kidding. Agreeing to the secnd year for $1.4 million was not only unnecessary, it was an overpay.

The arbitrator would disagree.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

The arbitrator would disagree.

The arbitrator doesn't have anything to do with year 2.

[Vottomatic]

I stick Hoover at Louisville and let him start games.

He spent over half his time in the Braves minors as a starter with very good results. Obviously he had no problem adjusting to relieving, but his trade value would be higher as a starter.

He could dominate down there and really have alot of value if a trade needs to happen.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by mth123

1.8 Million and 1 year too much IMO. The Reds have 10 guys for 7 spots in the pen and he's my 10th choice of that group personally. As for keeping him around for minor league depth, there are a lot of guys looking to hook on somewhere who could serve that same purpose.

IMO, this signing means that JJ Hoover starts the season in AAA unless some one comes up lame.

To be fair, there was no way that Ondrusek would be making 500k as a super-two arbitration player. Websites had him estimated around 900k, so it looks like it will break down to be 900k and 1.4m, which could likely represent a small savings over what his salaries would be if arbitration ran its course.