2013 ZiPS Projections - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

*BaseClogger* · 01-21-2013, 10:15 AM

Dan Szymborksi's 2013 ZiPS projections are being released on FanGraphs this year, and they posted the Reds this morning:

Quote:

Something of which people never tire is to learn that there is both good news and also that there’s bad news. The bad news, in the case of the Cincinnati Reds, appears to be — at least so far as Dan Szymborski’s finely calibrated ZiPS projection system is concerned — appears to be that newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo is probably a pretty bad defensive center fielder. The good news, though, is that he’s still expected to be worth about three wins in 2013 — i.e. more than he produced in either 2011 or -12.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ncinnati-reds/

mattfeet · 01-21-2013, 10:37 AM

Man, if Todd Frazier even sniffs those projections I'll be stoked.

-Matt

cincyinco · 01-21-2013, 11:05 AM

Don't like the Ludwick projection, though it's not terrible. Zips as a whole, stink IMO. Always too pessimistic.

*BaseClogger* · 01-21-2013, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Don't like the Ludwick projection, though it's not terrible. Zips as a whole, stink IMO. Always too pessimistic.

ZiPS usually grades out near the top in correlation to real life amongst the projection systems because it so heavily regresses people to the mean. That's what makes for an accurate projection system--get all the people in the middle right and don't worry about the outliers...

RedsManRick · 01-21-2013, 12:07 PM

I ran the numbers from ZIPS through my calculator, adjusting playing time for a few guys to make the numbers add up, and came up with the following:

Offense
Runs:738
R/G: 4.56

Pitching
Runs: 684
RA/G: 4.22

W-L: 87-75 (.538%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UU2lUZ0E#gid=8

kaldaniels · 01-21-2013, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I ran the numbers from ZIPS through my calculator, adjusting playing time for a few guys to make the numbers add up, and came up with the following:

Offense
Runs:738
R/G: 4.56

Pitching
Runs: 684
RA/G: 4.22

W-L: 87-75 (.538%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UU2lUZ0E#gid=8

C'mon Rick, you need to preface that with a "SPOILER ALERT".

OnBaseMachine · 01-21-2013, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattfeet

Man, if Todd Frazier even sniffs those projections I'll be stoked.

-Matt

Wouldn't really be much of a surprise if he did, IMO.

ZIPS has him projected to OPS .754 and hit 21 HR in 552 plate appearances. In 2012, Frazier posted an .829 OPS and hit 19 HR in 465 plate appearances.

I think 20-25 HR's and an OPS of .800 or higher is a fair projection for Frazier.

mdccclxix · 01-21-2013, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I ran the numbers from ZIPS through my calculator, adjusting playing time for a few guys to make the numbers add up, and came up with the following:

Offense
Runs:738
R/G: 4.56

Pitching
Runs: 684
RA/G: 4.22

W-L: 87-75 (.538%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UU2lUZ0E#gid=8

Where does "Dusty Magic" factor in though?

_Sir_Charles_ · 01-21-2013, 05:15 PM

Personally, I liked the part where they say who the #1 comp is for each player.

Cueto = Roy Halladay (I wish!)
Chad Reineke = RA Dickey (?!?) I think somebody needs to upgrade their Commodore64 cuz that don't compute.

dougdirt · 01-21-2013, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Personally, I liked the part where they say who the #1 comp is for each player.

Cueto = Roy Halladay (I wish!)
Chad Reineke = RA Dickey (?!?) I think somebody needs to upgrade their Commodore64 cuz that don't compute.

The comp is RA Dickey are the same age, not RA Dickey today.

kaldaniels · 01-21-2013, 08:05 PM

After some of the discussions we've had this offseason, I'm pleased to see 3 WAR projected for Mr. Cozart.

RedEye · 01-21-2013, 08:39 PM

Even conservatively, this is looking like a very strong pitching staff, health provided.

Cooper · 01-22-2013, 07:55 AM

You guys do realize that if Whitey Herzog was managing this team - he'd have Hamilton get 600 AB's in CF while starting Bruce in Right and Shoo in left - Ludwick would come off the bench and play against left handers.

He's live with the mistakes that Hamilton would make for the sake of just making the other team jittery.

I believe Whitey would be on to something. The league has gotten awful comfortable with not having to really deal with a guy that can steal a base.

WildcatFan · 01-22-2013, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The comp is RA Dickey are the same age, not RA Dickey today.

So we can expect big things from Chad in about seven years!

_Sir_Charles_ · 01-22-2013, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The comp is RA Dickey are the same age, not RA Dickey today.

Doug, don't go spoiling a perfectly good rant with logic. What the hell?

01-21-2013, 10:37 AM	#2
mattfeet Moderator Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,369	Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections Man, if Todd Frazier even sniffs those projections I'll be stoked. -Matt

01-21-2013, 11:05 AM	#3
cincyinco We are the angry mob Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: The 303 Posts: 2,479	Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections Don't like the Ludwick projection, though it's not terrible. Zips as a whole, stink IMO. Always too pessimistic. __________________ "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me." -Hunter S. Thompson

01-21-2013, 12:07 PM	#5
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,914	Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections I ran the numbers from ZIPS through my calculator, adjusting playing time for a few guys to make the numbers add up, and came up with the following: Offense Runs:738 R/G: 4.56 Pitching Runs: 684 RA/G: 4.22 W-L: 87-75 (.538%) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UU2lUZ0E#gid=8 __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

01-21-2013, 05:15 PM	#9
_Sir_Charles_ 2013 NL MVP and WS MVP Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Houston, Texas Posts: 6,357	Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections Personally, I liked the part where they say who the #1 comp is for each player. Cueto = Roy Halladay (I wish!) Chad Reineke = RA Dickey (?!?) I think somebody needs to upgrade their Commodore64 cuz that don't compute. __________________

01-21-2013, 08:05 PM	#11
kaldaniels Viva la Rolen Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 6,321	Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections After some of the discussions we've had this offseason, I'm pleased to see 3 WAR projected for Mr. Cozart.

01-21-2013, 08:39 PM	#12
RedEye Ojo Rojo Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Moving to Atlanta in July Posts: 4,405	Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections Even conservatively, this is looking like a very strong pitching staff, health provided. __________________ "It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers

01-22-2013, 07:55 AM	#13
Cooper Member Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Richmond, Indiana Posts: 1,587	Re: 2013 ZiPS Projections You guys do realize that if Whitey Herzog was managing this team - he'd have Hamilton get 600 AB's in CF while starting Bruce in Right and Shoo in left - Ludwick would come off the bench and play against left handers. He's live with the mistakes that Hamilton would make for the sake of just making the other team jittery. I believe Whitey would be on to something. The league has gotten awful comfortable with not having to really deal with a guy that can steal a base.

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