John Sickels' Rankings

[lollipopcurve]

This guy sounds like a scout. Not very complimentary about the Reds' AZL players.

http://thebaseballprospect.blogspot....prospects.html

http://thebaseballprospect.blogspot....instructs.html

He says he will talk in greater depth about the players he has seen out there if anyone is interested.

Great find. This is the best scouting I've seen on the AZL guys, by a lot. Thanks for posting.

Only thing I question is his saying Reynoso's speed is below average. Guy led the AZL in steals. I liked the report that Reynoso's swing is nice and compact. Good to see some positive on Pedro Diaz too.

Also interesting that he says Travieso reported to the AZL a bit out of shape. Whether that means he was overweight or his arm wasn't ready, I don't know. But BA has said he didn't show the overpowering heat that draft reports attributed to him.

All in all, I don't see how you can't have at least a smidgeon of concern about Travieso. He was something of an overdraft (not a huge concern, though, when a guy ranked in the 40s goes in the 20s), the explanation being that he had shown high 90s velocity. The concern creeps in when his calling card is not in evidence after the draft. That's where I am with the guy. Until he shows what was considered his best quality, my expectations are guarded (far more so than for Winker, for example).

[dougdirt]

Travieso wasn't an overdraft. I keep hearing people reiterate it and it just makes my head hurt.

Scouting report from the draft of the draft: 93-95 MPH FB, touches 100 MPH. Potentially plus slider. Fresh arm with no mechanical concerns for injury. No control concerns.

That is not an overdraft with where the Reds were drafting. Sure, pre-draft places had him ranked lower. It is likely a case of scouts failing to catch up, which we know that they do at times, because he was a reliever before his senior season because his father wouldn't allow him to start. So he came into the year off of a lot of radars.

[lollipopcurve]

Travieso wasn't an overdraft. I keep hearing people reiterate it and it just makes my head hurt.

Scouting report from the draft of the draft: 93-95 MPH FB, touches 100 MPH. Potentially plus slider. Fresh arm with no mechanical concerns for injury. No control concerns.

That is not an overdraft with where the Reds were drafting. Sure, pre-draft places had him ranked lower. It is likely a case of scouts failing to catch up, which we know that they do at times, because he was a reliever before his senior season because his father wouldn't allow him to start. So he came into the year off of a lot of radars.

No new news to me. As I noted, not a big deal at all given that he was ranked pretty close to where he was taken.
The concern for me, again, is that the big fastball didn't show up. You can be as bullish on Travieso as you want, Doug. Some of us will wait to see more.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

The concern for me, again, is that the big fastball didn't show up. You can be as bullish on Travieso as you want, Doug. Some of us will wait to see more.

Did he lose the fastball on the plane trip to Arizona? BA already said they were working on his mechanics. This was glorified practice.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Given where Cingrani has been ranked in the league and team rankings by BA, it is clear that hardly anyone thinks he is just a middle reliever.

It seemed last year, Cingrani got dinged a lot for only being a FB pitcher.
It seemed that after Cingrani's callup last year, he suddenly got a lot more respect.

Maybe I have the timeline wrong, but for a long time, Cingrani was dominating the minors, and was pretty much dismissed as a one trick pony..

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Given where Cingrani has been ranked in the league and team rankings by BA, it is clear that hardly anyone thinks he is just a middle reliever.

Except for you, Doug.

You are the biggest critic out there when it comes to Cingrani - or at least you have been in the past...

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Except for you, Doug.

You are the biggest critic out there when it comes to Cingrani - or at least you have been in the past...

Not his biggest critic, but probably one of them. And I am fine with that. Still, I think it is 50-50 as to where he winds up and that is a whole lot more than I thought before the season.

I still have my concerns though. From watching how he attacks hitters and then listening to him talk about what he does, or about his stuff, I don't see him making any changes any time soon to how he goes about it.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

It seemed last year, Cingrani got dinged a lot for only being a FB pitcher.
It seemed that after Cingrani's callup last year, he suddenly got a lot more respect.

Maybe I have the timeline wrong, but for a long time, Cingrani was dominating the minors, and was pretty much dismissed as a one trick pony..

I don't know that anyone gave him more respect who also thought he was a fastball only pitcher because of his 5 MLB innings. It is kind of crazy to change your opinion on 5 innings unless some new skillset showed up in those 5 innings (picking up new velocity, showing a brand new pitch). He threw his fastball 92% of the time in those 5 innings. So I can't see someone who was calling him a fastball only pitcher changing their tune over 5 innings where he threw 92 fastballs and 8 offspeed pitches.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't know that anyone gave him more respect who also thought he was a fastball only pitcher because of his 5 MLB innings. It is kind of crazy to change your opinion on 5 innings unless some new skillset showed up in those 5 innings (picking up new velocity, showing a brand new pitch). He threw his fastball 92% of the time in those 5 innings. So I can't see someone who was calling him a fastball only pitcher changing their tune over 5 innings where he threw 92 fastballs and 8 offspeed pitches.

I'm just going off impressions. It just seems that Cingrani is a lot more favorably thought of now than he was before the season started.
As far as I know, he hasn't made that much more progress on his secondary pitches (Maybe I'm wrong). Before the season started, he was clearly pegged below Corcino.. Now Cingrani is arguably the Reds #1 or #2 pitching prospect and is being labeled as a "potential #3 starter".. I guess I never heard an expert say that until now.. Before the season, the reports were "one trick pony, blah. Maybe a bullpenner".. Maybe the consensus hasn't changed that much.. His heavy reliance on the FB and lack of a legit breaking ball is a legit concern.

Maybe it wasn't his 5 IP at the MLB level that changed the experts' opinion.. I can't read people's mind, but it seems like his stock has shot way up over the last 8 months. I am going to assume the Reds still envision him as a potential SP, since that's the role they've always had him in the minors.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I'm just going off impressions. It just seems that Cingrani is a lot more favorably thought of now than he was before the season started.
As far as I know, he hasn't made that much more progress on his secondary pitches (Maybe I'm wrong). Before the season started, he was clearly pegged below Corcino.. Now Cingrani is arguably the Reds #1 or #2 pitching prospect and is being labeled as a "potential #3 starter".. I guess I never heard an expert say that until now.. Before the season, the reports were "one trick pony, blah. Maybe a bullpenner".. Maybe the consensus hasn't changed that much.. His heavy reliance on the FB and lack of a legit breaking ball is a legit concern.

Maybe it wasn't his 5 IP at the MLB level that changed the experts' opinion.. I can't read people's mind, but it seems like his stock has shot way up over the last 8 months. I am going to assume the Reds still envision him as a potential SP, since that's the role they've always had him in the minors.

Before the season he only had rookie ball to rely on. Now he has shown that his fastball/change up/slider is at least good enough to get by in AA and also that he can throw 150 innings in a season, a good barrier to get to without issue (he topped out around 80IP in JUCO). His stock clearly rose, though I am not sure his stuff did any improvement. We just saw that his current stuff was good enough to get by in AA quite well. I don't think there is any argument that he is the #1 pitching prospect. Everyone I have talked to has that as Stephenson. Where he falls between #2 and #4 is up for debate though.

[lollipopcurve]

We just saw that his current stuff was good enough to get by in AA quite well.

I think we saw a little more than that. He pretty much overpowered AA hitters. Then, even though we just got a glimpse of him in the bigs, we saw that his fastball plays there too. Tiny sample, but 9 Ks in 5 innings of work tells you his stuff is more than just good for AA, IMO.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I think we saw a little more than that. He pretty much overpowered AA hitters. Then, even though we just got a glimpse of him in the bigs, we saw that his fastball plays there too. Tiny sample, but 9 Ks in 5 innings of work tells you his stuff is more than just good for AA, IMO.

It may be. But 5 innings doesn't tell me it is. Guys had never seen him before. He has funny mechanics. He is a lefty. Not saying he can't do it there, but I don't think we know he can either yet.

In AA, his walk rate spiked because he wasn't able to put hitters away as easily.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

. Where he falls between #2 and #4 is up for debate though.

Ok.. so what do you see his upside as?
I am just curious.. Do you think he might be #4 due to flaws in him, or is it just because you think Stephenson and 2 other pitchers are truly exceptional.

IMO, Cingrani is the clear #2 pitching prospect at this point. That could change this season, but that's where I have him now. Although I think his floor (decent lefty reliever) is a nice "Win" for the farm system any time you can produce a guy like that.

I'm just wondering.. there was some gnashing of teeth when the Reds traded Donnie Joseph, and it seems like Cingrani is clearly a superior prospect to him.

Anyhow, to the point.. where to you envision Cingrani being eventually?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Ok.. so what do you see his upside as?
I am just curious.. Do you think he might be #4 due to flaws in him, or is it just because you think Stephenson and 2 other pitchers are truly exceptional.

IMO, Cingrani is the clear #2 pitching prospect at this point. That could change this season, but that's where I have him now. Although I think his floor (decent lefty reliever) is a nice "Win" for the farm system any time you can produce a guy like that.

I'm just wondering.. there was some gnashing of teeth when the Reds traded Donnie Joseph, and it seems like Cingrani is clearly a superior prospect to him.

Anyhow, to the point.. where to you envision Cingrani being eventually?

I have him at #4 because I don't see a reason to doubt, at least from a pitches standpoint, that the other three aren't starters. I don't think Cingrani can start without improving his slider. Upside, he can be a #2 pitcher. Solid to good fastball velocity, good deception and outstanding ability to locate it. Real good change up. If he can get his slider to an average pitch (which is still a ways from what it is right now), he can be a heck of a starter. If the slider doesn't develop, he is probably a 7th inning reliever profile type, perhaps an 8th inning guy.

[NeilHamburger]

A little surprised to see Hamilton as an A- prospect.

I just tend to be very very skeptical of speed prospects with very little power. It seems like 90% of them go the way of Dee Gordon/Pokey Reese etc...

I'll believe it transitions over when I see it.