RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion John Sickels' Rankings

 01-26-2013, 12:01 AM #106 757690 Member     Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Dayton Posts: 8,013 Re: John Sickels' Rankings One thing to note is that these runs expectancy charts are based on data from the the heart of the steroid era, 1999-2002. I have to imagine that those values would be different if based on the current run scoring environment. Has there been any RE charts based on newer data? __________________ We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. - Albert Einstein
01-26-2013, 06:28 AM   #107
AtomicDumpling
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 757690 One thing to note is that these runs expectancy charts are based on data from the the heart of the steroid era, 1999-2002. I have to imagine that those values would be different if based on the current run scoring environment. Has there been any RE charts based on newer data?
True, the chart RedsManRick posted is ten years old, but it still proves the concept we were discussing. The run expectancies change a little bit each year because after all the data is derived from real baseball games and every game is different.

You can go to Baseball Prospectus to see the Run Expectancy charts for any year you like: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1091223

It can be wise to use a chart that combines data from a few years because data from a single season can have too small of a sample size for some events (for example, how many times per season does someone hit a triple with men on 1st and 3rd with 0 outs?). Here is a larger matrix from Tango's site: http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

Here is a good chart that gives the linear weight for each hit type or event type cross-referenced with the base/out state: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html
It is a bit old but you can find a newer one if you look around.

01-26-2013, 10:19 AM   #108
Scrap Irony
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RedsManRick That said, I wonder how having his speed changes the chances of scoring from 2nd or 3rd respectively. We know he'll score on any single (even an IF single apparently), but he's also more like to score from 3B than the average runner. When you combine the fact that Joey Votto will be close behind, I think it probably swings the odds in favor of staying put when he's on 2B unless it's a virtual lock.
That's a good point and not one I had considered overly much. I think the calculus changes with the cleanup hitter up to bat, especially with only one out. (This could also lead to both Votto and the #2 hitter-- Phillips?-- boosting their stolen base attempts to career highs as part of double steals behind Hamilton.)

Another question/ challenge for you, RMR/ Atomic Dumpling:

Set-Up:
Hamilton's on 1B. Phillips has gotten out without advancing him. I assume it's better to have Hamilton successfully steal 2B (with the opposing team then walking Votto to bring up another, lesser hitter that could hit into a double play) than for him to stay put.

How much better-- mathematically-- is it? In short, how much does that stolen base improve the Reds' chances to score runs? Because it changes the calculus of the whole inning, it can't be simply the 0.983 number, can it? Wouldn't it then have to change pretty significantly Cincinnati's favor?

Because, if so, I could see Hamilton running pretty much every time he gets on 1B, no matter the situation.
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01-26-2013, 10:27 AM   #109
Scrap Irony
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 757690 One thing to note is that these runs expectancy charts are based on data from the the heart of the steroid era, 1999-2002. I have to imagine that those values would be different if based on the current run scoring environment. Has there been any RE charts based on newer data?
Yeah.

The lower the run scoring environment (and the lower the slugging), the more important gaining bases becomes. So the more likely a stolen base means something.

The calculus, at this point, is going to be somewhere around 70% but could very well be less than 65% for a particular season and going forward. If that calculus does indeed change, so might players themselves. We could see another sea change in the game, with scouts focusing on speed guys again up the middle. (Their probable range difference might also boost WAR.)

Personally, I love a mixture of big boppers and little mites flying everywhere. It's seems to be more inclusive somehow.
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01-26-2013, 10:40 AM   #110
mth123
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scrap Irony That's a good point and not one I had considered overly much. I think the calculus changes with the cleanup hitter up to bat, especially with only one out. (This could also lead to both Votto and the #2 hitter-- Phillips?-- boosting their stolen base attempts to career highs as part of double steals behind Hamilton.) Another question/ challenge for you, RMR/ Atomic Dumpling: Set-Up: Hamilton's on 1B. Phillips has gotten out without advancing him. I assume it's better to have Hamilton successfully steal 2B (with the opposing team then walking Votto to bring up another, lesser hitter that could hit into a double play) than for him to stay put. How much better-- mathematically-- is it? In short, how much does that stolen base improve the Reds' chances to score runs? Because it changes the calculus of the whole inning, it can't be simply the 0.983 number, can it? Wouldn't it then have to change pretty significantly Cincinnati's favor? Because, if so, I could see Hamilton running pretty much every time he gets on 1B, no matter the situation.
I'M not RMR or AD, but I don't risk making an out at 2B when Votto is coming up when the pay-off probably just means a walk to Votto anyway. I think Votto is so head and shoulders above everyone else in the line-up that I think the team has a better chance with him at bat and a runner on 1st than some one else up with runners on first and second. That's no slight at Ludwick, Bruce or Frazier, I just think Votto is that good. He's the best hitter the Red have had in my lifetime and that includes Rose, Bench, Davis, Larkin, Morgan Perez, Foster, Pinson and anyone else you can name. The closest was probably Kevin Mitchell during his short stint here or maybe Kal Daniels before he was hurt and his career faded.

I only have vague images of Robinson's last season, so maybe he'd compare, but Votto is the best of the rest.
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01-26-2013, 10:48 AM   #111
Scrap Irony
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mth123 I'M not RMR or AD, but I don't risk making an out at 2B when Votto is coming up when the pay-off probably just means a walk to Votto anyway. I think Votto is so head and shoulders above everyone else in the line-up that I think the team has a better chance with him at bat and a runner on 1st than some one else up with runners on first and second. That's no slight at Ludwick, Bruce or Frazier, I just think Votto is that good. He's the best hitter the Red have had in my lifetime and that includes Rose, Bench, Davis, Larkin, Morgan Perez, Foster, Pinson and anyone else you can name. The closest was probably Kevin Mitchell during his short stint here or maybe Kal Daniels before he was hurt and his career faded. I only have vague images of Robinson's last season, so maybe he'd compare, but Votto is the best of the rest.
If that's the case, you've got to limit Hamilton's attempts a great deal, which, in turn, will significantly lower his value. In essence, mth, you're willing to take around 50 bases off your team's total just for Votto to maybe add those bases back.
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01-26-2013, 10:53 AM   #112
mth123
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scrap Irony If that's the case, you've got to limit Hamilton's attempts a great deal, which, in turn, will significantly lower his value. In essence, mth, you're willing to take around 50 bases off your team's total just for Votto to maybe add those bases back.
Probably saves 10 to 15 or so outs as well. Hamilton can run when Phillips is up to see if he and Phillips can do some damage before Votto heads up there or can be the lead runner on a double steal after Votto walks and one of the others is up, but no running while Votto is hitting IMO.
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01-26-2013, 11:29 AM   #113
Scrap Irony
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mth123 Probably saves 10 to 15 or so outs as well. Hamilton can run when Phillips is up to see if he and Phillips can do some damage before Votto heads up there or can be the lead runner on a double steal after Votto walks and one of the others is up, but no running while Votto is hitting IMO.
I just don't think that makes sense mathematically, though I could be wrong.
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 01-26-2013, 11:37 AM #114 kaldaniels Viva la Rolen     Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 7,176 Re: John Sickels' Rankings Intersting points being raised here. Is it better to have 1 man on 2nd with Votto up, or men on 1st and 2nd with Ludwick (or whoever is cleanup) up? It may be a situational thing. My head tells me that if they are conceding a walk to Votto you should take that most everyday of the week though my heart wants to see Votto hit.
01-26-2013, 11:42 AM   #115
HokieRed
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kaldaniels Intersting points being raised here. Is it better to have 1 man on 2nd with Votto up, or men on 1st and 2nd with Ludwick (or whoever is cleanup) up? It may be a situational thing. My head tells me that if they are conceding a walk to Votto you should take that most everyday of the week though my heart wants to see Votto hit.
The answer is to have a 4th guy who will punish them hard enough, often enough, that pitching around Votto does not seem like the automatic course. Whether Ludwick is that guy seems doubtful to me, though, as to what was available at about his price, he's a reasonable choice.

01-26-2013, 11:58 AM   #116
mth123
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scrap Irony I just don't think that makes sense mathematically, though I could be wrong.
A runner on first is in scoring position with Votto up there. A votto extra base hit is going to score him anyway. A single will send him to 3B and runners on 1st and 3rd with the rest of the line-up coming up is better than Hamilton on Second and Votto being walked. I don't think Votto will ever get a chance to drive in a runner from second base with 1B open whether its Hamilton or anyone else on base. IF Votto makes an out, Hamilton gets in the same position anyway most likely. If they want him to take another base for Ludwick and the boys, he can always steal after Votto is out. I just don't take the chance of him being thrown out with Votto hitting not to mention the larger hole between 1B and 2B with a runner on first giving Votto an even bigger advantage.

Of course, If I was the opposition, I'd walk Votto anyway if there is some one on base whether its first or second. But the teams of the NL will pitch to him in that situation.
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 01-26-2013, 12:02 PM #117 Scrap Irony Member   Join Date: May 2000 Location: Bedford, KY Posts: 8,992 Re: John Sickels' Rankings If they walk Votto after a Hamilton steal, the Reds will have more people on base. More people on base means more scoring opportunities. I really think it's that simple, mth. __________________ "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat." -- Christy Matthewson "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot." -- Leo Durocher
01-26-2013, 12:07 PM   #118
mth123
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scrap Irony If they walk Votto after a Hamilton steal, the Reds will have more people on base. More people on base means more scoring opportunities. I really think it's that simple, mth.
It means more guys LOB. I think they are more likely to get Hamilton in from 1B with Votto hitting than him from second with somebody else up there.

I will concede that adding a walk to Votto increases the chance of a big inning, but I think Votto hitting increaes the chances of scoring a run as opposed to coming up with nothing.

As for those weights, those are made with an average hitter up there. I think some one as exceptional as Votto changes the picture.
__________________
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

01-26-2013, 12:24 PM   #119
Steve4192
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scrap Irony If they walk Votto after a Hamilton steal, the Reds will have more people on base. More people on base means more scoring opportunities. I really think it's that simple, mth.
Exactly.

If other teams are willing to concede a 1000 OBP to Votto with a runner on second, the Reds should be ecstatic. A free baserunner is worth more than the potential for an extra base hit. As good as Joey is, he 'only' gets an extra-base hit in 11% of his plate appearances. Bumping his OBP up by 585 points (versus his career average of 415) is worth WAY more than that 11% chance that he gets an extra-base hit.

01-26-2013, 12:31 PM   #120
Steve4192
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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mth123 It means more guys LOB. I think they are more likely to get Hamilton in from 1B with Votto hitting than him from second with somebody else up there. I will concede that adding a walk to Votto increases the chance of a big inning, but I think Votto hitting increaes the chances of scoring a run as opposed to coming up with nothing. As for those weights, those are made with an average hitter up there. I think some one as exceptional as Votto changes the picture.
What's wrong with more guys LOB?

Men LOB is a natural extension of having a lot of guys get on base. I'd even wager that men LOB correlates pretty highly with run scoring. If you lead the league in men LOB, odds are you also had a boatload of baserunners and were among the league leaders in runs scored as well.

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