The Changing Landscape of Baseball and (maybe) a new Roster Approach

[lidspinner]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I can't wait to see Billy in a real MLB game. Cause until then, I won't be convinced he can just magically make his way to third base. I really hope he can do so, of course.

And I swear I'm not knocking you at all, it's just that we won't know for sure how his speed will play until he is actually in the bigs.

I am 100% in agreement with this.....BH very well might be the fastest man ever to step foot on a diamond.....but Ricky Henderson once said that 90% of his steals were based off the fact that the pitcher and catcher were defeated before he even lead off the base.....he stated that the pitcher was always thinking about him and the catcher never took his eyes off him, Ricky was trying to prove that when all the emphasis is put on you as the base burgular then small mistakes made by the pitcher and catcher will favor you that much more than if you were standing there leading off as just a regular base runner......

anyone that has ever heard Ricky speak understands that nothing he says is understood very well but when he started speaking about stealing bases being a lead off hitter, he almost spoke in a different tongue, you could actually understand him......

Billy Hamilton might get out there and do the exact opposite that Ricky did....he might get thrown out on his first attempt and therefore start making those little small mistakes that lead to him getting thrown out.....sometimes just being fast does not get you a stolen base.....it all comes down to how his speed translates to the 90 feet between each base....its gonna be fun to watch because if it all works out we could be watching something that has not been seen before, not even with Ricky.

[Cooper]

Has there ever been a study that shows that having a basestealer on first increases the hitter's OPS - above and beyond just having a "regular" runner on first?

I'm sure it's been done - i'm just curious.

[*BaseClogger*]

Another element to consider: having Hamilton bat first and Phillips second could mean a lot of avoided BP DPs...

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I don't know which way it will tip the scales, but it should also be considered that Hanny will be walked/pitched around often with a man on 2nd.

Which is why Hamilton should not hit that low in the order. If we agree that the best part of Hamilton's game is the stolen base then you have to put him in a lineup position where he can steal 80-100 bases and #7 isn't it. I want him hitting #1 or #2 and not only stealing bases but distracting the pitcher while pitching to dangerous hitters. Now if Hamilton has an OBP of less than .300, we'll have to re-evaluate

[TRF]

Hamilton at leadoff. Let's assume the .350+ OBP.

His value at the top of the order goes beyond who is batting behind him. Yes Votto can drive him home from first, but Say Hamilton walks to leadoff the game.

Instantly, the pitcher is in the stretch, and while some baserunners warrant fastballs being thrown, a pitcher cannot risk a slider away or a curve with him on. one curve and Hamilton is on 2B.

Now Hamilton is making a nuisance of himself at 2B with nobody out. Pitcher is still in the stretch because he knows Hamilton can and will steal 3B, a steady stream of FB's to BP results in a 2 run HR. to start the game.

This is what the Reds lacked last year, the quick start. They were the team that came back, scored late and held on with superior pitching.

But with Hamilton, and to a somewhat lesser extent Choo, the Reds now have OBP at the top of the order plus a SB threat.

or in other words, what Sea Ray said.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Which is why Hamilton should not hit that low in the order. If we agree that the best part of Hamilton's game is the stolen base then you have to put him in a lineup position where he can steal 80-100 bases and #7 isn't it. I want him hitting #1 or #2 and not only stealing bases but distracting the pitcher while pitching to dangerous hitters. Now if Hamilton has an OBP of less than .300, we'll have to re-evaluate

Wait, why can't he steal 80-100 bases batting seventh?

[klw]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Furthermore, the landscape of MLB has changed to the point where league leaders in SB are around the 50 steal mark, whereas in 1979 Moreno's 97 steals put him second in MLB. ~100 steals is more valuable in 2013 simply by scarcity principles alone.

Are the stolen bases really more valuable today? They would be in a fantasy league but in reality it wouldn't seem to actually create any more runs than it would have in 1978.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

Wait, why can't he steal 80-100 bases batting seventh?

Hopefully, because there are too many 'base cloggers' in front of him.

[Tadasimha]

All of this is very intriguing but it's really just speculation. It's too early to assume Billy Hamilton is at the forefront of a shift in baseball philosophy, as exciting as it might be.

Let's make sure he can actually hit major league pitching and get on base before we crown him the next Rickey Henderson.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Hopefully, because there are too many 'base cloggers' in front of him.

That and it's not worth the risk at that spot in the lineup. I doubt they'd let him attempt that many stolen bases down there. Has anyone ever stolen that many from the #7 hole? Not one that I can recall

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

That and it's not worth the risk at that spot in the lineup. I doubt they'd let him attempt that many stolen bases down there. Has anyone ever stolen that many from the #7 hole? Not one that I can recall

What do you mean not worth the risk? That's when a stolen base is most valuable!

[lidspinner]

When you get to the 8th spot in your lineup all you care about is flipping the lineup to get to the top.....if there is 1 out and BH is on first then you'd hate to have him get thrown out stealing and make the 2nd out then Hannigan make the 3rd out then your pitcher leads off the next inning....you can use the same theory but different scenario if there were 2 outs......bottom line is, at least IMO, is that managers don't allow guys that low in the lineup to openly steal bases for fear of not flipping the lineup over....Its just a theory

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by klw

Are the stolen bases really more valuable today? They would be in a fantasy league but in reality it wouldn't seem to actually create any more runs than it would have in 1978.

I meant that simply in that a guy who steals 100 bases per year would be more scarce and therefore more valuable in that aspect in today's landscape where 50 steals puts you near or atop the leaderboard. Steals are still a valuable asset for a player's offensive repertoire, and appear to be increasing in value.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

What do you mean not worth the risk? That's when a stolen base is most valuable!

No, you want to steal a base when it means scoring a run. Stealing a base so they can walk Hanagan is not worth it

[texasdave]

This is what the Reds lacked last year, the quick start. They were the team that came back, scored late and held on with superior pitching.

Right and wrong. Their first inning was actually their most productive inning. They really fell off in inning number two and then muddled through innings three, four, five and six. They did finish strongly. In innings 7-9 they scored 222 runs while allowing only 159.

Inning	RS 	AVG
1	88	0.54
2	54	0.33
3	69	0.43
4	85	0.52
5	75	0.46
6	66	0.41
7	87	0.54
8	80	0.49
9	55	0.46