Chapman story on ESPN - MLB front page...

[_Sir_Charles_]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/st...-reward-debate

"I hear the argument, 'Why mess with something when it's gone so well?'" Price said. "I get that. We have a really good team and the window of opportunity is now, and we may be better suited to Aroldis closing rather than starting because we already have a strong five-man rotation without him. I totally understand that.

"But I also have a feeling in my heart that he's not going to be the best possible pitcher he can be until he throws enough innings to master his craft. I think this kid has untapped potential, but it won't come out until we give him an opportunity to mature as a pitcher. Does he have a chance to be one of the better starters of his generation? The longer we wait, the less chance we have of ever finding out."

[WildcatFan]

"But I also have a feeling in my heart that he's not going to be the best possible pitcher he can be until he throws enough innings to master his craft. I think this kid has untapped potential, but it won't come out until we give him an opportunity to mature as a pitcher. Does he have a chance to be one of the better starters of his generation? The longer we wait, the less chance we have of ever finding out."

This is the most important quote of the entire process, IMO. We've got quite a team on our hands, but it's time to take a high-reward risk to put them over the hump. I trust Bryan Price almost unconditionally at this point.

[SunDeck]

I don't think it's a high risk. If he tanks, he's still got a wicked arm that the Reds know can be used in other ways and they will still have a good pitching staff.

[WMR]

If you've got a potential TOR southpaw ACE on your hands, the decision is, or should be, very simple...

[RedEye]

I can't believe this is actually still called a "debate." Then again, there are quite a few other "debates" in our culture that probably shouldn't be termed that way. This one is far less damaging, I suppose.

Yay - 4,000 posts!

[AtomicDumpling]

A team wants to get as many innings as possible from their best pitchers. Every inning that is not pitched by a good pitcher is pitched by a bad pitcher. It makes perfect sense to have one of your best pitchers throw 200 innings instead of 70.

It is not uncommon to move a stud reliever into the rotation. It has happened many, many times.

Here are three good examples just from last year:

The White Sox's Chris Sale was a reliever in 2011 when he threw 71 innings. They moved him into the rotation in 2012 and he threw 192 innings with a 3.05 ERA.

The Cubs' Jeff Samardzija was a reliever through the 2011 season when he pitched 88 innings. They moved him into the rotation in 2012 and he threw 174.2 innings with a 3.81 ERA. He had a ERA 2.58 ERA after the All-Star break when he had already pitched more innings than any year in his career. His average fastball velocity as a reliever before 2012 was 93.8mph, but when he moved into the rotation his fastball averaged 95.1 as a starter in 2012.

Lance Lynn pitched 34 innings out of the bullpen in St. Louis in 2011, then moved into the rotation for the 2012 season and pitched 176 innings with a 3.78 ERA.

There is plenty of precedent for moving a good relief pitcher into the starting rotation. In addition to Sale, Samardzija and Lynn who made the jump last year there are many more examples. Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright and CJ Wilson are three ace pitchers who started out as relievers. They all threw 200+ innings their very first season in the starting rotation. Those are the ones I could think of off the top of my head in a few seconds. I am sure there are many more.

People want to compare moving Chapman into the rotation to the Stephen Strasburg innings limit situation. It really isn't a good comparison. Strasburg has always been a starter. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery and the Nationals wanted to limit the stress on his newly transplanted ligament that was healing in his elbow. Aroldis Chapman isn't nursing an injury and has a healthy elbow by all accounts. It is just not an equivalent scenario for comparison.

For every reliever who got hurt when he moved into the rotation you can name 10 relievers who got hurt when they stayed in the bullpen. You can get hurt no matter where you pitch. Pitchers hurt their arms all the time. It is crazy to claim that Neftali Feliz got hurt just because he moved into the rotation. He likely would have blown out his elbow if he had stayed in the bullpen too. He only lasted 42 innings after all. He was pitching great up to the time of his injury.

I think Chapman is a good bet to be able to throw at least 170 innings and likely more. If the Reds handle him carefully and limit his innings on days where the game isn't close he should be able to last the entire season in the rotation. Putting the Missile in the rotation is a smart move. If his performance suffers as a starter the Reds could always back off a while and ramp him up more slowly, or if the experiment fails he can always go back to the bullpen.

[TRF]

I'm for the move, but Lance Lynn isn't the best example. he had 75 innings at AAA in 2011 making his jump to 174 not as drastic as it sounded. And he threw 164 innings in 2010, so his arm was probably better suited in terms of what he was used too. Chapman hasn't had a workload like that since joining the Reds org.

Sale is a better example, but he had some issues during the 2012 season, something we as fans should be aware that Chapman will likely face as well.

[Superdude]

"It's going to be fascinating to watch," said an AL talent evaluator, "but I think they're absolutely crazy doing what they're doing. They just won 97 games, and I don't think you mess with that. How many innings are you going to get out of him this year -- 130 or 140? They need to close out the games they're supposed to win, and it was damn near automatic when he came in the game. I would never even think about it, let alone try it."

We won 97 games, so complacency is our best bet now? The whole sentiment that Chapman should be limited to filling roster holes was ridiculous in the first place IMO and I'm glad to see we're maybe getting past that. The entire Orioles bullpen could blow out a shoulder in the bath tub tomorrow and no one would be calling for Dylan Bundy to close. I'll never understand why that decision was made so flippantly with Chapman.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I can't believe this is actually still called a "debate." Then again, there are quite a few other "debates" in our culture that probably shouldn't be termed that way. This one is far less damaging, I suppose.

Yay - 4,000 posts!

Congrats!

[Scrap Irony]

Chapman, despite being "almost automatic", blew as many saves last season as by-the-tips-of-his-fingertips Coco Cordero the year before. I know he looked much better (and arguably should have gotten much better results), but the end-game was about the same.

I also realize that taking him out of the pen hurts it.

However, the addition of Hoover might make the pen above average rather than dominant.

And the addition of Chapman to the rotation could mean three or four (if Bailey's second half was for real) of the top 30 starters in the National League in one rotation.

Too, if it fails, you've only lost some innings-- Leake can come in and be a fifth starter just fine, while Chapman can re-convert to closing. (Or, better, coming in as he did early last season in high leverage spots.)

In other words, you have to do this.

[dubc47834]

This article was a good read. I for one am in favor of it. If it doesnt work out then put him back in the pen. I know its not just that easy, I think its worth a try.

Glad to be here in the ORG!!!

[bigredmechanism]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Chapman, despite being "almost automatic", blew as many saves last season as by-the-tips-of-his-fingertips Coco Cordero the year before. I know he looked much better (and arguably should have gotten much better results), but the end-game was about the same.

I also realize that taking him out of the pen hurts it.

However, the addition of Hoover might make the pen above average rather than dominant.

And the addition of Chapman to the rotation could mean three or four (if Bailey's second half was for real) of the top 30 starters in the National League in one rotation.

Too, if it fails, you've only lost some innings-- Leake can come in and be a fifth starter just fine, while Chapman can re-convert to closing. (Or, better, coming in as he did early last season in high leverage spots.)

In other words, you have to do this.

Coco was a blown save waiting to happen. Almost all of the time he would get out of his jams, but he would also get himself into those jams with great consistency. I don't remember all that many 1-2-3 innings out of him. To be fair to him, at the end of the day he did his job very well for us.

I've waffled on the Chapman question over time, but this article has me reconsidering again. Originally, everyone figured he would be a starter, and that late in the 2010 season was a David Price situation. Once they put him in at closer, and I saw what a devastating weapon he was there, I changed my mind. His slider can be nasty at times but is really inconsistent, and I've only seen him throw a real changeup a handful of times. (Might even have been sliders that didn't slide.)

I guess it's fair to say that the velocity he gets on his fastball worries me that he'll hurt himself, and limiting his innings would be good. Then again, he could also blossom into a lefty Verlander in an ideal scenario. I definitely look forward to his first big league start though. Seeing him for more than one inning at a time should be fun.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by bigredmechanism

Coco was a blown save waiting to happen. Almost all of the time he would get out of his jams, but he would also get himself into those jams with great consistency. I don't remember all that many 1-2-3 innings out of him. To be fair to him, at the end of the day he did his job very well for us.

I've waffled on the Chapman question over time, but this article has me reconsidering again. Originally, everyone figured he would be a starter, and that late in the 2010 season was a David Price situation. Once they put him in at closer, and I saw what a devastating weapon he was there, I changed my mind. His slider can be nasty at times but is really inconsistent, and I've only seen him throw a real changeup a handful of times. (Might even have been sliders that didn't slide.)

I guess it's fair to say that the velocity he gets on his fastball worries me that he'll hurt himself, and limiting his innings would be good. Then again, he could also blossom into a lefty Verlander in an ideal scenario. I definitely look forward to his first big league start though. Seeing him for more than one inning at a time should be fun.

I think the slider is a real key. As a reliever facing 3 or 4 hitters, that big breaking slider gets guys to swing and miss as they chase it out of the zone. I just think that working through a line-up three times and guys getting multiple looks at him, those chasing swings and misses are going to come to an end. Guys are going to learn to lay-off until Chapman proves he can get that pitch over the plate. Add that he'll be working at a lower velocity to pace himself through 6 or 7 innings, and hitters will have more time to make up their mind. IMO, Chapman's success as a starter isn't as much about adding a third pitch, but keeping that second pitch isn't as automatic as folks are assuming. Chapman is going to have to get that slider over the plate. I think its a question.

[WebScorpion]

Thanks! Nice article. They did a pretty good job of presenting all sides of the story. I, personally, like the move, but I think many fans are going to be disappointed by his performance this season. I'm not sure the average fan realizes that major league hitters will learn to time even his fastball after seeing it 2 or 3 times. I also hope he doesn't have any of his little control issues...there is nothing more heart wrenching than watching a guy (on your favorite team) who cannot find the strike zone throw pitch after pitch and walk 2 or 3 batters. Well, hopefully they'll pitch him as the #5 starter and give him a few extra days off here and there. I'm pretty sure he and Mike Leake are the best #5 and #6 pitchers in baseball...what a luxury!

[mth123]

Originally Posted by WebScorpion

Thanks! Nice article. They did a pretty good job of presenting all sides of the story. I, personally, like the move, but I think many fans are going to be disappointed by his performance this season. I'm not sure the average fan realizes that major league hitters will learn to time even his fastball after seeing it 2 or 3 times. I also hope he doesn't have any of his little control issues...there is nothing more heart wrenching than watching a guy (on your favorite team) who cannot find the strike zone throw pitch after pitch and walk 2 or 3 batters. Well, hopefully they'll pitch him as the #5 starter and give him a few extra days off here and there. I'm pretty sure he and Mike Leake are the best #5 and #6 pitchers in baseball...what a luxury!

There is a real possibilty that Chapman could pitch basically the same way and control issues show up in his numbers if guys learn not to chase by seeing him multiple times each game.