Chapman story on ESPN - MLB front page...

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think the slider is a real key. As a reliever facing 3 or 4 hitters, that big breaking slider gets guys to swing and miss as they chase it out of the zone. I just think that working through a line-up three times and guys getting multiple looks at him, those chasing swings and misses are going to come to an end. Guys are going to learn to lay-off until Chapman proves he can get that pitch over the plate. Add that he'll be working at a lower velocity to pace himself through 6 or 7 innings, and hitters will have more time to make up their mind. IMO, Chapman's success as a starter isn't as much about adding a third pitch, but keeping that second pitch isn't as automatic as folks are assuming. Chapman is going to have to get that slider over the plate. I think its a question.

This is probably pretty true. It'll likely be less about him throwing 8 or 9 token changeups a game and far more about whether or not that slider is consistently effective. His fastball command's improved leaps and bounds in a short amount of time, so hopefully it's something that'll come with repetition.

[nate1213]

Originally Posted by mth123

There is a real possibilty that Chapman could pitch basically the same way and control issues show up in his numbers if guys learn not to chase by seeing him multiple times each game.

Agreed. As a closer he relied so much on that fastball at the hands where people couldn't touch it. Hitters chase that in the 9th inning when they are trying to do something big for their club. He can't rely on that anymore going 6-7 innings.

This is my first post in the ORG, glad to be here!

[alwaysawarrior]

Originally Posted by nate1213

Agreed. As a closer he relied so much on that fastball at the hands where people couldn't touch it. Hitters chase that in the 9th inning when they are trying to do something big for their club. He can't rely on that anymore going 6-7 innings.

This is my first post in the ORG, glad to be here!

Keep in mind he had a manager last year who all but told him to abandon everything but the fastball. I don't remember the exact quote but at some point in the season last year he basically said why would he throw anything but a fastball....I think as a starter we will see him work in other pitches with consistency, because he will have to. I am also aware there will probably be bumps in the road, but the risk is worth the reward.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by alwaysawarrior

Keep in mind he had a manager last year who all but told him to abandon everything but the fastball. I don't remember the exact quote but at some point in the season last year he basically said why would he throw anything but a fastball....I think as a starter we will see him work in other pitches with consistency, because he will have to. I am also aware there will probably be bumps in the road, but the risk is worth the reward.

Plenty of of reports, this article included, said he was pitching completely different in spring training last year when he did so well as a starter. We don't know how consistent he is with all these secondary pitches yet, but it's encouraging that he at least recognizes the changes he'll have to make. I'd say the high FB% in his career has almost definitely been role induced.

[SunDeck]

Originally Posted by alwaysawarrior

Keep in mind he had a manager last year who all but told him to abandon everything but the fastball. I don't remember the exact quote but at some point in the season last year he basically said why would he throw anything but a fastball....I think as a starter we will see him work in other pitches with consistency, because he will have to. I am also aware there will probably be bumps in the road, but the risk is worth the reward.

Not sure if this is meant as a criticism, but if it is I don't know that I see a problem with this for a closer, especially when no one really proved that they could hit it. Nevertheless, I agree he will have to develop the repertoire in order to be effective because (and this I find amazing) major league hitters can learn to hit an exclusive diet of fastballs, even from a guy who has an extraordinary one.

[Gary Redus]

The upside for this is huge. Having a dominate TOR lefty is worth the risk. Others have posted examples of this working out i.e. Sale and Lynn. How about Price from Tampa ...

[Tommyjohn25]

Chapman to the rotation is the biggest low/no risk, ultra-high reward choice the Reds have had in my lifetime. IMO....

[alwaysawarrior]

Originally Posted by SunDeck

Not sure if this is meant as a criticism, but if it is I don't know that I see a problem with this for a closer, especially when no one really proved that they could hit it. Nevertheless, I agree he will have to develop the repertoire in order to be effective because (and this I find amazing) major league hitters can learn to hit an exclusive diet of fastballs, even from a guy who has an extraordinary one.

I guess it is criticism to a degree but mainly because I always disagreed with having him in the bullpen. I wanted to see how he could develop and him pumping fastball after fastball wasn't much in the way of development. And I am aware that the organization wasn't as much worried about development as winning ball games last year, so it is kind of my personal opinion.

[Vottomatic]

Playing Devil's Advocate.......

What if Chapman, as a starter, puts up numbers similar to Leake? What if he has problems going 5 innings consistently? Walks alot of guys? Is Volquez part deux?

Then does he go back to slamming the door?

I'm all for the experiment. I just wonder how long it will last. And what if the bullpen, namely the closer struggles? Hmmmm.

Lots of drama this upcoming season. As the Reds Turn.

[M2]

You'll never do anything brilliant if you don't try something crazy. Chapman as a starter is a take-over-the-world move.

[SunDeck]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Playing Devil's Advocate.......

What if Chapman, as a starter, puts up numbers similar to Leake? What if he has problems going 5 innings consistently? Walks alot of guys? Is Volquez part deux?

Then does he go back to slamming the door?

I'm all for the experiment. I just wonder how long it will last. And what if the bullpen, namely the closer struggles? Hmmmm.

Lots of drama this upcoming season. As the Reds Turn.

Then he goes back to the pen and the Reds benefit by having the best relief corps in the NL.

[SunDeck]

Originally Posted by alwaysawarrior

I guess it is criticism to a degree but mainly because I always disagreed with having him in the bullpen. I wanted to see how he could develop and him pumping fastball after fastball wasn't much in the way of development. And I am aware that the organization wasn't as much worried about development as winning ball games last year, so it is kind of my personal opinion.

I didn't necessarily like him closing either, but saw it as the best alternative, given the injury situation they faced. He could bring the fastball- everyone knew that- and they at least could rest easy that they had him at the end to do the door slamming when they needed it. The unfortunate part is that it kept him from needing to develop the other pitches and I'm in agreement with you on that.

[Cooper]

This move scares me in a big way - you have a known value - a guy who lead the league in win shares (i know that win shares are not thought of in the same vein as the blessed WAR, but Bill James came up with them and i tend to think the Chapman's value in the bullpen is higher than his WAR gives off).

You have a pitcher who throws the ball with an incredible amount of torque- this requires a great deal of flexibility. Being a starter impairs a pitchers flexibility and it puts a ton of strain on the arm when it's lost - i'm hoping that he has enough talent at the margins to overcome this -but i don't think i'd chance it.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Playing Devil's Advocate.......

What if Chapman, as a starter, puts up numbers similar to Leake? What if he has problems going 5 innings consistently? Walks alot of guys? Is Volquez part deux?

Then does he go back to slamming the door?

I'm all for the experiment. I just wonder how long it will last. And what if the bullpen, namely the closer struggles? Hmmmm..

I think it depends on how he struggles. If he's showing flashes of brilliance with a few train wreck starts here and there, I think you stick with him. If he's consistently just plain bad, then I wouldn't hesitate to send him back to the ninth. As far as the bullpen, that just has to be irrelevant if they're actually gonna stick to this plan.

[malcontent]

Originally Posted by mth123

There is a real possibilty that Chapman could pitch basically the same way and control issues show up in his numbers if guys learn not to chase by seeing him multiple times each game.

This is my concern as well. Hitters won't be geared up as much as when they're trailing in the ninth, and won't be chasing stuff out of the zone as much.

Instead, they'll be far more patient and those pitch counts are going to be high by the fifth inning. I just don't see a successful transition happening.

Then of course, you're limiting the "Chapman effect" to once every five games.