The Case For: Xavier Paul

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by M2

As of right now, Paul is the team's top LH PH. I'd even list him as the 4th OF instead of the 5th, mainly because he can spell Ludwick vs. tough RHPs. He hit all the way up the ladder in the minors too.

As for his defense, seems competent enough in LF and I wouldn't freak out if they played him in CF on occasion. I would recommend putting absolutely no stock in his defensive metrics in that his sample size is exceedingly small and he's never played a single position in the majors with any regularity.

He should be a lock for the 25-man and he'll be around as long as he keeps producing. In other words, it's his job to lose.

I agree, I'd like Paul on the team, but I don't see him starting many games in the OF. I didn't think his defense was too good, just based on my own observation.

Heisey will get the most starts of the bench outfielders. I think he'll back up all three positions, and play late inning CF defense.

But that doesn't diminish Paul's role. I see him as providing the LH hitting depth the team has needed for years. He'll pinch hit, come in on double switches sometimes, and start here and there.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by M2

As of right now, Paul is the team's top LH PH. I'd even list him as the 4th OF instead of the 5th, mainly because he can spell Ludwick vs. tough RHPs. He hit all the way up the ladder in the minors too.

As for his defense, seems competent enough in LF and I wouldn't freak out if they played him in CF on occasion. I would recommend putting absolutely no stock in his defensive metrics in that his sample size is exceedingly small and he's never played a single position in the majors with any regularity.

He should be a lock for the 25-man and he'll be around as long as he keeps producing. In other words, it's his job to lose.

Can't agree with this at all. Chris Heisey is going to get the PT spotting in the OF. In the event of an injury, Heisey with Hannahan (and Frazier moving to the OF on occassion) is a better plan. If the Reds sign Rolen, a Hanahan/Rolen platoon with Frazier moving is a much better plan. Paul is a AAAA guy who had a good BABIP in under 100 PAs in 2013 and people are going overboard on him. He and Simon are career minor leaguers and now after a short hot streak people are acting like they are both locks. They are interchangeable parts and should not be impediments to better guys like Rolen or Hoover. If the Reds jettison Paul in a numbers game and need a lefty bat down the road, switch hitters like H-Rod and Hamilton may be moving to the front of the line and better baserunners and defensive players like Fellhauer and Felix Perez may be able to fill-in as well.

I like Paul OK and teams could do worse than him as a 25th man, but if the Reds need to cut him loose to make a room for a more valuable commodity, I won't lose any sleep.

[OGB]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think Paul is the cleasr 5th OF at this point, but with Choo and Bruce filling 2 spots, Ludwick being better against RHP than LHP and Hannahan now on the bench, the need for a lefty OFer on the bench is much less urgent. If Rolen decides to play, Paul would seem to be the odd man out.

I honestly can't imagine a scenario where Rolen and Hannahan are both on the team.

[malcontent]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Frazier will never be a good third baseman if he keeps getting moved around the diamond. We're no longer talking about Todd as a backup. If he's the primary third baseman, left field should be eliminated from his vocabulary unless it is an emergency situation.

Agreed, and I'm all for keeping Paul and not re-signing Rolen.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by OGB

I honestly can't imagine a scenario where Rolen and Hannahan are both on the team.

A Hannahan/Rolen platoon would be like having a regular player in reserve. The fact that Frazier can move around makes that Regular player capable of backing up 4 spots (maybe 5 if Bruce moves to CF in the event of a Choo injury). Surviving an injury is probably most important toward keeping this team on a post-season track (it happened last year).

If they are all healthy, I can't imagine the difference between having Paul on the bench and Rolen on the bench would matter too much (neither will get many starts IMO). If one of the corner guys goes down, having a Rolen/Hannahan platoon might be a key to filling in. The upside of keeping Paul seems pretty minimal to me. The upside of keeping Rolen gives the Reds a ready-made platoon to plug in if somebody important goes down.

[M2]

Originally Posted by mth123

Can't agree with this at all. Chris Heisey is going to get the PT spotting in the OF.

Roy Halladay, Matt Cain, Lance Lynn, Jeff Samardzija, Ryan Vogelsong, Yovanni Gallardo or some other RHB killer on the mound and you'd start Heisey over Paul?

Heisey would make sense starting in CF against LHPs if he could lefties. Unfortunately he doesn't do that very well.

Main point is the Reds need an effective LH bat off the bench. Jack Hannahan is many things, a quality PH is not one of them. Find me a LH bat better than Paul for the bench and I'm all for it. I don't think Paul is any kind of lock. I just don't see ANY competition for his job.

[OGB]

At this point, with his age and spotty health, I see zero upside for Rolen when you already have a bench player who plays 1B/3B exclusively. I don't care that Frazier can play (only) LF if they had Rolen over Paul. Frazier can still do that if Rolen isn't on the team. It isn't an example of how Scott contributes.
I realize he has practically no track record, but Paul was an excellent pinch hitter last year, has speed, can play 3 OF spots, and is young and healthy; all things that can't be said of Rolen.
Name me one team in baseball history with 2 bench players who could only play first or third.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by M2

Roy Halladay, Matt Cain, Lance Lynn, Jeff Samardzija, Ryan Vogelsong, Yovanni Gallardo or some other RHB killer on the mound and you'd start Heisey over Paul?

Heisey would make sense starting in CF against LHPs if he could lefties. Unfortunately he doesn't do that very well.

Main point is the Reds need an effective LH bat off the bench. Jack Hannahan is many things, a quality PH is not one of them. Find me a LH bat better than Paul for the bench and I'm all for it. I don't think Paul is any kind of lock. I just don't see ANY competition for his job.

Career OPS vs RHP

Jay Bruce .843
Shin Soo Choo .914
Ryan Ludwick .811
Chris Heisey .794
Xavier Paul .713

Just when will Paul be playing the OF against RHP again? Against LHP Paul has an OPS of .355. I just don't see him starting at all. His defense is average at the very best. He seems like the 5th guy in a 4 man rotation. I just don't see him playing enough for the difference between he and Rolen to make much difference if everybody stays healthy, but if Votto or Frazier goes down, Rolen will be more important than Paul could be in any circumstance. If its one of the OF that goes down, Frazier's versatility still makes Rolen/Hannahan a viable back-up.

Swapping Stubbs for Choo goes most of the way toward fixing the Reds problems against RHP. The places where its still a problem have nothing to do with Paul and his existence on the roster won't really help that at all. Where the Red need a LHB is in the middle infield behind Phillips and Cozart.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by OGB

At this point, with his age and spotty health, I see zero upside for Rolen when you already have a bench player who plays 1B/3B exclusively. I don't care that Frazier can play (only) LF if they had Rolen over Paul. Frazier can still do that if Rolen isn't on the team. It isn't an example of how Scott contributes.
I realize he has practically no track record, but Paul was an excellent pinch hitter last year, has speed, can play 3 OF spots, and is young and healthy; all things that can't be said of Rolen.
Name me one team in baseball history with 2 bench players who could only play first or third.

Agreed. I don't see why the Reds should suddenly drop a guy who hit .867 OPS against righties as a lefty bench bat last year. XPaul may slide back, but why drop a guy who did so well last year?

The argument that Rolen platoons if Frazier moves off third due to major injury seems pretty thin to me. With Hannahan, the Reds are in pretty good shape if Frazier moves. Yes, a platooner may well be needed, but the righty platoon hitter plays infrequently.

On the other hand, there is almost no backup for so many other positions. What if Cozart or Phillips goes down? Choo (unless you like Heisey starting)? So we should worry about the righty platoon if, as and when Frazier has to move to first or LF? Not compelling to me.

[M2]

Originally Posted by mth123

Career OPS vs RHP

Jay Bruce .843
Shin Soo Choo .914
Ryan Ludwick .811
Chris Heisey .794
Xavier Paul .713

Just when will Paul be playing the OF against RHP again?

I assume you recognize more than a slight disparity in those sample sizes. Heading into last season, Mike Trout had a career .605 OPS vs. RHPs. Obviously Paul is no Trout, but I don't advise holding a player's breaking in struggles against him.

And my point still stands: there are RHPs you do NOT want Ryan Ludwick starting against. You do not want Chris Heisey starting against them either. That's a pointless substitution that completely fails to give your team the added platoon advantage it should be seeking in those games.

Originally Posted by mth123

Swapping Stubbs for Choo goes most of the way toward fixing the Reds problems against RHP. The places where its still a problem have nothing to do with Paul and his existence on the roster won't really help that at all. Where the Red need a LHB is in the middle infield behind Phillips and Cozart.

Choo does nothing in terms of giving the Reds a LHB off the bench. It doesn't matter where the bench LHB plays (though the Reds need two OFs on the bench, one bench OF is lousy planning), as long as he can hit. Again, Handsome Jack is not up to the task. The team absolutely must have a capable LHB who can come off the bench to face tough RH pitchers late in a game.

So, if not Paul, then who? You've yet to come up with a single viable alternative.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by M2

I assume you recognize more than a slight disparity in those sample sizes. Heading into last season, Mike Trout had a career .605 OPS vs. RHPs. Obviously Paul is no Trout, but I don't advise holding a player's breaking in struggles against him.

And my point still stands: there are RHPs you do NOT want Ryan Ludwick starting against. You do not want Chris Heisey starting against them either. That's a pointless substitution that completely fails to give your team the added platoon advantage it should be seeking in those games.



Choo does nothing in terms of giving the Reds a LHB off the bench. It doesn't matter where the bench LHB plays (though the Reds need two OFs on the bench, one bench OF is lousy planning), as long as he can hit. Again, Handsome Jack is not up to the task. The team absolutely must have a capable LHB who can come off the bench to face tough RH pitchers late in a game.

So, if not Paul, then who? You've yet to come up with a single viable alternative.

Xavier Paul is 28 before opening day. He's long past breaking in. He had one decent season with less than 100 PAs and a BABIP of .379. In 2011, at age 26, (no young kid) he had 262 PAs, with a still high BABIP of .333, his OPS was a whopping .638 (.697 in 233 PAs against RHP). I'd just use Hannahan as the LHPH. Last season's small luck driven sample doesn't do much to make Paul a better choice.

The Reds don't need to cut Paul. Use the DL and keep him around. If the make-up of the roster proves to be a problem, make a change. I just don't let a career AAAA guy who had what amounts to a decent BABIP driven month create a "no room on the roster" situation that would prevent bringing Rolen back. I'd say the chances of Paul proving to be more valuable in 2013 than Mike Costanzo or Willie Harris was last year are fairly low.

Funny that you mention small samples. People are getting pretty carried away concerning Xavier Paul based on a pretty darned small sample. As for covering all the positions, Frazier's vesatility makes that a non-issue IMO. Frazier can play LF or RF same as Paul (who can't play CF) and with 2 of the 4 OF being LH and the other two usually being better against RHP than LHP, he may be a better choice anyway. I don't really see when you'd choose to give Paul a start.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by mth123

The Reds don't need to cut Paul. Use the DL and keep him around. If the make-up of the roster proves to be a problem, make a change. I just don't let a career AAAA guy who had what amounts to a decent BABIP driven month create a "no room on the roster" situation that would prevent bringing Rolen back.

I really don't fall on any particular side regarding Paul, although I agree with you that I wouldn't have Xavier Paul hold us back from necessarily bringing Rolen back.

That said, is there some particular injury that Paul had that would still present itself when spring training is over? As much as folks suggest that there are phantom DL injuries galore, I really don't believe it's that prevalent and they can't be made out of whole cloth - there have to be a medical basis for it. Is there some injury I'm forgetting?

[alwaysawarrior]

I don't see bringing Rolen back with Hannahan, Donald, and Frazier on the team. Frazier can be moved but I think that only happens out of complete necessity. I agree that I wouldn't let Paul keep me from signing Rolen, if that fit the needs of the team, but imo it does not. They currently are set at backup infielders that can play third base, and don't really have a need for one more. As for the leadership qualities. As I have stated in another thread if Votto, Bruce, and Phillips aren't ready to take over some of that role there is a problem anyway.

[*BaseClogger*]

With the game on the line, I'm PHing Scott Rolen before I use Xavier Paul, even against a tough RH pitcher...

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

With the game on the line, I'm PHing Scott Rolen before I use Xavier Paul, even against a tough RH pitcher...

I think this is the best argument for Rolen, the single at bat or defensive play in a key situation. Obviously, lifetime, Rolen is a much greater hitter than Paul and one might opt for Rolen in the key at bat.

Of course, in considering the big time at bat or play, Scott was 4 for 16 in the playoffs last year, all singles, made at least one meaningful error, but that's a small sample. He's been a great ball player, no question.

I just think you need to balance all the factors. Health. Team offensive balance. Team defensive balance. Experience and leadership. They all count to some degree. I'd keep Paul given the current makeup of the team.

So reasonable minds can differ, I think it's time for Scott and the Reds to decide so we can end these threads and go on to something else.