Concerns for Cueto

[Sir Luke]

Down the backstretch of last season I saw a horrifying trend in Cueto. His ERA inflated a bit, but that's not the concern. His two seam was breaking far too quickly out of his hand. If he is running it up to 95 or not, a telegraphed fastball has danger written all over it. A major league hitter should immediately pick up on the seam, anticipate the break and take it for a ride. The scariest part of this is the fact it looks like a great pitch to the pitcher. I fear that Cueto has had an offseason of bullpens where he falls in love with watching his two seams break across the zone and never facing a batter that can punish him for it.

Any thoughts?

[klw]

If you look at his game logs and splits, Cueto typically has faded a bit down the stretch each year. It seems to be getting later and not as severe each year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ear=Career&t=p

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
April	6	5	.545	3.63	20	20	0	0	0	0	119.0	111	51	48	13	31	2	92	10	2	4	497	1.193	7.0	2.97
May	13	9	.591	2.98	27	27	0	3	1	0	175.0	153	66	58	19	54	4	137	6	1	2	720	1.183	7.0	2.54
June	16	6	.727	2.96	27	27	0	1	0	0	176.1	153	65	58	16	53	0	125	10	0	5	714	1.168	6.4	2.36
July	10	9	.526	3.90	27	27	0	2	1	0	164.0	172	81	71	13	60	2	122	10	2	2	721	1.415	6.7	2.03
August	10	8	.556	3.75	24	24	0	0	0	0	136.2	122	60	57	18	39	0	130	15	1	3	577	1.178	8.6	3.33
Se/Oct	5	9	.357	4.53	24	24	0	0	0	0	133.0	148	71	67	16	44	3	96	8	1	5	579	1.444	6.5	2.18

[Sir Luke]

And that progression is expected for a young guy like Johnny. Good graph but its not exactly relevant to what I said other than the part about his ERA slightly inflating.

[Nasty_Boy]

Originally Posted by Sir Luke

Down the backstretch of last season I saw a horrifying trend in Cueto. His ERA inflated a bit, but that's not the concern. His two seam was breaking far too quickly out of his hand. If he is running it up to 95 or not, a telegraphed fastball has danger written all over it. A major league hitter should immediately pick up on the seam, anticipate the break and take it for a ride. The scariest part of this is the fact it looks like a great pitch to the pitcher. I fear that Cueto has had an offseason of bullpens where he falls in love with watching his two seams break across the zone and never facing a batter that can punish him for it.

Any thoughts?

Yea, I have a few thoughts... First is this your observation? Some of what you are saying about hitting and recognizing the two seam isn't in line with what you see at the plate. What does pitch f/x and other sites have to say about the effectiveness of the pitch? Basically, everything you said is bunk IMO... Kind of like the Votto thread. I think if Cueto is in shape and healthy, then his two seam isn't going to be a problem. If something doesn't look right with it then Price will fix it in Goodyear. Guessing about his bullpen sessions is pretty far out there.

[Sir Luke]

Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy

Yea, I have a few thoughts... First is this your observation? Some of what you are saying about hitting and recognizing the two seam isn't in line with what you see at the plate. What does pitch f/x and other sites have to say about the effectiveness of the pitch? Basically, everything you said is bunk IMO... Kind of like the Votto thread. I think if Cueto is in shape and healthy, then his two seam isn't going to be a problem. If something doesn't look right with it then Price will fix it in Goodyear. Guessing about his bullpen sessions is pretty far out there.

It's not a matter of health or mechanics or being in shape, its the pitch breaking too quickly out of his hand and therefor being detectable to the hitter. And remember, I'm talking about late in the season when he had a few rough outings. And the bullpen thing wasn't an assumption I was just throwing it out there. It's really not terribly far fetched though.

[RANDY IN INDY]

And it begins...........

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by Sir Luke

It's not a matter of health or mechanics or being in shape, its the pitch breaking too quickly out of his hand and therefor being detectable to the hitter.

I have a feeling if this is really an issue, Bryan Price will have it figured out in Spring Training.

[smixsell]

I did not notice JC's "2-seam fastball beaking (?) too soon out of his hand." Not concerned at all about it.

I do have some minor concerns about him falling in love with his fastball or him telegraphing his change, both of which have been long term problems for him and did happen during short stretches last year. However, he has made great strides in conquering both problems and the trend is definitely positive in both areas, so I'm not too concerned with either.

My only real concerns are his health and that he keeps his head on straight as he continues to get more and more recognition for his rapidly growing excellence.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Sir Luke

It's not a matter of health or mechanics or being in shape, its the pitch breaking too quickly out of his hand and therefor being detectable to the hitter. And remember, I'm talking about late in the season when he had a few rough outings. And the bullpen thing wasn't an assumption I was just throwing it out there. It's really not terribly far fetched though.

From BrooksBaseball.net

	Pitch 	Count 	Freq 	Velo  	pfx HMov 	pfx VMov 	
April	SI 	165	32%	92.32	-9.36	5.85	
Sep	SI 	109	20%	93.58	-8.23	6.46

He threw his sinker less often in September than in April. It had just over an inch less run and about half an inch more rise. The pitch however was 1.3 MPH faster.

[Sir Luke]

Originally Posted by CySeymour

I have a feeling if this is really an issue, Bryan Price will have it figured out in Spring Training.

I figured that as well but you can't know all until spring training kicks up.

[Sir Luke]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

From BrooksBaseball.net

	Pitch 	Count 	Freq 	Velo  	pfx HMov 	pfx VMov 	
April	SI 	165	32%	92.32	-9.36	5.85	
Sep	SI 	109	20%	93.58	-8.23	6.46

He threw his sinker less often in September than in April. It had just over an inch less run and about half an inch more rise. The pitch however was 1.3 MPH faster.

Its sinking less and breaking earlier. So, I believe my observation was correct. Great data. Thanks.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Sir Luke

Its sinking less and breaking earlier. So, I believe my observation was correct. Great data. Thanks.

That data doesn't suggest it is breaking earlier at all, just that it is breaking less. However, you probably could find out if it was indeed breaking earlier at BrooksBaseball.net if you wanted to play around with his player card enough.

[Sir Luke]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

That data doesn't suggest it is breaking earlier at all, just that it is breaking less. However, you probably could find out if it was indeed breaking earlier at BrooksBaseball.net if you wanted to play around with his player card enough.

I know. I would put money on that being a portion of the reason.

[smixsell]

He was getting a little "velocity drunk" late lat season (as he has tended to do throughout his career, but hs improved on a lot in the last 2 years) and was throwing his sinker (2-seamer) a little too hard. Throw it too hard and it sinks less and is easier to hit. Pretty simple stuff really.

Still don't know where you get your "breaking too early" observation from.

PS great data Doug, I'm going to bookmark that website.

[Salukifan2]

Originally Posted by smixsell

He was getting a little "velocity drunk" late last season

Cuetoholic