LF 2015

[mth123]

One thing to consider is that the way Ludwick's contract is structured, the Reds don't really save much money by declining his option. The buy-out is large enough that it would only cost around $3 Million to bring Ludwick back for 2015. If he's still reasonably productive and the answer is a rent-a-player it may be Ryan Ludwick himself. If not my picks in order are:

Todd Frazier
Donald Lutz
Bryson Smith
Steve Selsky
Rent-a-player

Still think Vidal or Mejias Brean may be ready and better than any of those guys and push Frazier to the OF. Lutz is a dark horse though, but would probably need a platoon partner.

Not seeing it at all with Ryan Lamarre. Looks like the typical light hitting, speedy, decent defensive CF type who are abundant in the minor leagues. Not really excited by his Endy Chavez/Tony Gwynn Jr/Dewayne Wise potential (of course those guys are lefty hitters which is more typical of those 5th OF types).

Winker will take over in 2016 or 2017 IMO. Maybe they keep Ludwick that extra year and go straight to Winker in 2016 and skip all the lesser lights.

[JKam]

I think Ludwick's 2 year deal precludes a Choo extension as an option. I also think it's wishful thinking that Choo will command less than a 5-6 year deal.

If Ludwick has a decent season in 2013, wouldn't it be fairly easy to trade Ludwick? If Ludwick drops off significantly in 2013, you just don't pick up his option next season. If he has a great 2013 you should be able to get something good back in a trade.

It may be true that it will be difficult to resign Choo, but I don't see Ludwick blocking the path for anyone.

[camisadelgolf]

Although it's no guarantee, it's a pretty safe bet that Choo isn't re-signing. When have you ever heard Jocketty call someone a rental? I'm pretty sure Choo is the only one since Walt became the GM.

[Benihana]

I'm surprised no one voted for Yorman thus far. If I had to pick between him, Waldrop, Gelalich and Ludwick, Yorman would be my pick. Maybe over Lutz too, although that one is much closer. We'll know much more after seeing how he develops this season, but if something clicks, he'll be the clear in-house favorite to take over LF in 2015 IMO.

[mth123]

My shot at 2015

Hamilton CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Mesoraco C
Bruce RF
Frazier LF
Vidal 3B
Cozart SS

Barnhart C
H-Rod IF
Lutz OF-1B
Bryson Smith OF
???? MI

Latos SP
Chapman SP
Cueto SP
Leake SP
Corcino SP
Rogers Swing

Guillon LHLR
Ravin RHMR
Hoover RHR
Marshall LHSU
Broxton RHSU
Cingrani Closer

Winker, Mejias-Brean, Rahier, Gelalich, Wright, Stephenson, Contreras getting ready in AAA. Need a MI or two

[Benihana]

For what it's worth, I see Mesoraco as a future #6 hitter, not a future cleanup hitter.

I see him as a guy who hits .260 with 20-25 HR, certainly not bad production for a catcher, but I don't see him as a guy who hits 35+ HR (or bats much higher than .260-.270).

I also see Vidal and Mejias-Brean both as backup types, not starting 3B. I'm not sure if Bryson Smith ever sticks in the show (he may get a cup of coffee or two). I'd sub LaMarre in for him as a 5th OF/defensive replacement. Other than that, though, not much I disagree with above. I wonder in your scenario if Cingrani usurps Broxton as the closer, if the Reds don't try to trade Broxton (or Marshall) at that point. That's a ton of money to have tied up in setup men, especially when they're going to need it to lock up Latos and Cueto (assuming you have Bailey leaving via FA). Personally, if I had to choose between Homer and Leake, I'm keeping Homer every time - unless he requires 2x or 3x the amount of money that Leake does- which of course is entirely plausible.

Sorry to be dense but who is Contreras?

[texasdave]

Hoover has to be in that bullpen somewhere, I would imagine. Otherwise, I can see much of that happening.

[texasdave]

Carlos Contreras. Excellent numbers as the Dayton closer last year. Bumped up to Bakersfield at the end of 2012.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=542266

[mth123]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Hoover has to be in that bullpen somewhere, I would imagine. Otherwise, I can see much of that happening.

Doh. Forgot about him completely. I'll revise.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Benihana

For what it's worth, I see Mesoraco as a future #6 hitter, not a future cleanup hitter.

I see him as a guy who hits .260 with 20-25 HR, certainly not bad production for a catcher, but I don't see him as a guy who hits 35+ HR (or bats much higher than .260-.270).

I also see Vidal and Mejias-Brean both as backup types, not starting 3B. I'm not sure if Bryson Smith ever sticks in the show (he may get a cup of coffee or two). I'd sub LaMarre in for him as a 5th OF/defensive replacement. Other than that, though, not much I disagree with above. I wonder in your scenario if Cingrani usurps Broxton as the closer, if the Reds don't try to trade Broxton (or Marshall) at that point. That's a ton of money to have tied up in setup men, especially when they're going to need it to lock up Latos and Cueto (assuming you have Bailey leaving via FA). Personally, if I had to choose between Homer and Leake, I'm keeping Homer every time - unless he requires 2x or 3x the amount of money that Leake does- which of course is entirely plausible.

Sorry to be dense but who is Contreras?

I see Bryson Smith as the replacement to Heisey when Heisey starts to cost more than he's worth. I just don't see Lamarre hitting enough to be more than a minor league defender who comes up when all the passable CF guys are killed in a plane crash. Smith provides a little RH power, some speed and competent defense (much like Heisey) which makes him a decent back-up to Bruce and Hamilton.

Now that I was reminded of Hoover, I could see him in the RH 8th inning role and Broxton being dealt. Hoover will be in the pen somewhere for sure.

I too like Bailey better than Leake (way better in fact), but I don't see the Reds being able to retain them. Arroyo leaves after this year with Leake moving back in. Homer leaves after next year with Corcino moving in and Leake leaves the following year with Stephenson moving in. The money will go toward Latos and Chapman who will be a costly arb guy after 2013.

The only other thing I might see, is one of those pitchers dealt for a SS of the future. Cozart is a decent cheap guy who has his strengths and his flaws, but he's not a guy to lock-up long term to a big contract. If they can get one, Cozart could be gone by 2015 or not long after. A long term SS should be on the team's to do list.

Frazier might be another guy who gets too pricey in arb and I could see the Reds dealing him when Winker is ready. They'd probably want to keep his RH pop after Ludwick leaves, so he parks himself in LF for a year while Vidal, Mejias-Brean and maybe Rahier or even Rosa, if he develops, jockey for the job as the next 3B in a revolving door. I could see a Vidal/H-Rod Platoon out there (H-Rod in the 2 hole with an aging Phillips dropping down might be a better idea). Like you, I'm not sold that Vidal et al are major league starters, I just think they are better options on a daily basis than any of the LF options until Winker is ready. Vidal at 3B and Frazier in LF is much better defensively at both positions than Frazier at 3B and Lutz in LF. I like Frazier OK, I just think a couple of years of him at 3B may bring back memories of EdE. He's a better OF, but I'm not sure his bat is enough for LF long term. OTOH, his bat was better last year than I thought we'd ever see from him in the major leagues, so maybe he'll plant himself there for 10 years.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mth123

I see Bryson Smith as the replacement to Heisey when Heisey starts to cost more than he's worth. I just don't see Lamarre hitting enough to be more than a minor league defender who comes up when all the passable CF guys are killed in a plane crash. Smith provides a little RH power, some speed and competent defense (much like Heisey) which makes him a decent back-up to Bruce and Hamilton.

Now that I was reminded of Hoover, I could see him in the RH 8th inning role and Broxton being dealt. Hoover will be in the pen somewhere for sure.

I too like Bailey better than Leake (way better in fact), but I don't see the Reds being able to retain them. Arroyo leaves after this year with Leake moving back in. Homer leaves after next year with Corcino moving in and Leake leaves the following year with Stephenson moving in. The money will go toward Latos and Chapman who will be a costly arb guy after 2013.

The only other thing I might see, is one of those pitchers dealt for a SS of the future. Cozart is a decent cheap guy who has his strengths and his flaws, but he's not a guy to lock-up long term to a big contract. If they can get one, Cozart could be gone by 2015 or not long after. A long term SS should be on the team's to do list.

Frazier might be another guy who gets too pricey in arb and I could see the Reds dealing him when Winker is ready. They'd probably want to keep his RH pop after Ludwick leaves, so he parks himself in LF for a year while Vidal, Mejias-Brean and maybe Rahier or even Rosa, if he develops, jockey for the job as the next 3B in a revolving door. I could see a Vidal/H-Rod Platoon out there (H-Rod in the 2 hole with an aging Phillips dropping down might be a better idea). Like you, I'm not sold that Vidal et al are major league starters, I just think they are better options on a daily basis than any of the LF options until Winker is ready. Vidal at 3B and Frazier in LF is much better defensively at both positions than Frazier at 3B and Lutz in LF. I like Frazier OK, I just think a couple of years of him at 3B may bring back memories of EdE. He's a better OF, but I'm not sure his bat is enough for LF long term. OTOH, his bat was better last year than I thought we'd ever see from him in the major leagues, so maybe he'll plant himself there for 10 years.

Pretty much agree with everything here. Frazier and Cozart are both nice-to-have guys for the next 2-3 years, not necessarily franchise fixtures (at this point). I'd like to see the Reds draft a SS with one of their top couple picks this year. JP Crawford and Oscar Mercardo are both guys I like that fit the bill. Not sure they'll be ready by 2015, but they'll be good to have in the organization regardless.

With Frazier, I see him holding down the hot corner until Rahier or Rosa is ready to takeover full time and/or he becomes too expensive. If neither of them fully ripen, and/or Frazier doesn't command an eight figure annual salary, I could see Frazier playing out his contract and actually re-signing if he becomes a fan favorite. Not necessarily the strong suit of the roster, but a good guy to have on the team, and the kind of aw shucks hustle-guy that Cincinnatians seem to love.

No use in really arguing over B.Smith, LaMarre, Vidal, Mejias-Brean, et al. as it seems we both agree that they are not impact players at the major league level. Maybe they stick on the roster for a year or two, but let's hope it's on the bench because we have better starting alternatives. Ditto for Henry Rodriguez, who I see as a pinch hitter and utility infielder, a modern day Luis Quinones.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Pretty much agree with everything here. Frazier and Cozart are both nice-to-have guys for the next 2-3 years, not necessarily franchise fixtures (at this point). I'd like to see the Reds draft a SS with one of their top couple picks this year. JP Crawford and Oscar Mercardo are both guys I like that fit the bill. Not sure they'll be ready by 2015, but they'll be good to have in the organization regardless.

With Frazier, I see him holding down the hot corner until Rahier or Rosa is ready to takeover full time and/or he becomes too expensive. If neither of them fully ripen, and/or Frazier doesn't command an eight figure annual salary, I could see Frazier playing out his contract and actually re-signing if he becomes a fan favorite. Not necessarily the strong suit of the roster, but a good guy to have on the team, and the kind of aw shucks hustle-guy that Cincinnatians seem to love.

No use in really arguing over B.Smith, LaMarre, Vidal, Mejias-Brean, et al. as it seems we both agree that they are not impact players at the major league level. Maybe they stick on the roster for a year or two, but let's hope it's on the bench because we have better starting alternatives. Ditto for Henry Rodriguez, who I see as a pinch hitter and utility infielder, a modern day Luis Quinones.

I could see LF/3B being a mix and match group when Ludwick goes. Maybe Frazier at 3B with Lutz in LF some days or Vidal at 3B and Frazier in LF some days or H-Rod at 3B with Frazier in LF. May be a couple of patoons with Lutz/Frazier in LF and Vidal/H-Rod at 3B.

Now that Frazier has been around the league for a year, we'll probably find out if pitchers adjust to him. I hope it doesn't happen, but I could see him turning into a lefty killer who struggles with RHP. That kind of thing usually doesn't show itself until the league gets to know a guy and everybody starts to "work him" instead of challenging him with hard stuff. 2013 may tell a lot of tales with both Cozart and Frazier.

[holster10]

I vote for Larry Blittner. Personally, I believe the 2015 LF will come from outside the organization via a trade in the next few years. The Reds will trade away some pitching prospects at some point to meet a need.

[Vander]

I love the idea of Yorman, but I have to see it before I'll believe it.

I love what I see in Winker and think he'll come on quickly, but not 2015. I'll bet we sign a one-year rental and then go with Winker in 2016.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by mth123

One thing to consider is that the way Ludwick's contract is structured, the Reds don't really save much money by declining his option. .

That's an excellent point. I wish I had read that before I voted.

It seems more difficult to find a decent 3b than a LF. If the Reds feel confident to go with Frasier at 3b now, I expect he won't move to LF, especially for someone like Vidal (who I percieve as not being a premium prospect).. The Reds' MO would be to move the new prospect to LF and leave Frasier where he is, unless the new prospect has gold glove skills.
Anyhow, I doubt the Reds plan on moving Frasier to LF in the future.

As far as your future lineup looks, I think the Reds are banking on Cingrani being able to step into the rotation eventually.. I suspect he will displace Homer or Leake. Maybe even Latos (not that I want that to happen, but if Latos wants to test FA, it could happen).

I don't think there's a chance that Choo will re-sign. If he was reasonable, Cleveland would've extended him. He wants to get the big bucks.