Drafting Preferences - A Look Back at Personal History

[Benihana]

The rules: I identify the day of the draft the two or three players I want the most. In order to be eligible, the player had to be available within three picks before the Reds chose or was available at the time they chose. Here's a look back at how I did vs. the Reds in the post-JimBo era:

2004 Homer Bailey
I wanted: Homer Bailey, Jeremy Sowers or Jered Weaver
Best Player: Jered Weaver

2005 Jay Bruce
I wanted: Cameron Maybin or Jay Bruce (although I really liked Maybin)
Best Player: Jay Bruce

2006 Drew Stubbs
I wanted: Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw or Tim Lincecum
Best Player: Clayton Kershaw

2007 Devin Mesoraco
I wanted: Jason Heyward, Rick Porcello or Matt Dominguez
Best Player: Jason Heyward

2008 Yonder Alonso
I wanted: Brian Matusz, Justin Smoak or Gordon Beckham
Best Player: Yonder Alonso

2009 Mike Leake
I wanted: Tyler Matzek, Grant Green or Aaron Crow
Best Player: Mike Leake (or better yet, Mike Trout!)

2010 Yasmani Grandal
I wanted: Yasmani Grandal, Chris Sale or Josh Sale
Best Player: Chris Sale (at this point)

2011 Robert Stephenson
I wanted: Daniel Norris, Taylor Guerreri or Robert Stephenson
Best Player: ??

2012 Nick Travieso
I wanted: Courtney Hawkins or Lucas Gioloto
Best Player: ??

Looks like the Reds know what they're doing a little bit better than I do- at least certainly in '05, '08 and '09. Who knew? In fact so far, there hasn't been a time where the Reds passed on my first choice and he turned out to be the best choice.* Let's hope that trend continues in '11 (Stephenson over Norris) and '12 (Travieso over Gioloto).

How about you? Any particular picks you liked/didn't like at the time? Be honest!



*Although I liked Heyward much better than Mesoraco at the time, he was taken just before the Reds picked in '07 so the Reds technically didn't pass on "my guy"/the better player. Ditto for Kershaw in '06, although Miller was the guy I really liked in that draft. The Sales and Grandal were too close to call for me in 2010, so I won't count that as "I knew better."

[dougdirt]

I was on board with all of their picks in the first round with the lone exception of Drew Stubbs, where I believe all I said was "anyone but Drew Stubbs".

[camisadelgolf]

In 2008, although I was content with Mesoraco, I had a "Smoke or broke" campaign. He might yet still have a good career--Safeco Field can be a bit difficult on hitters--but it's not looking good. I never have much criticism of my favorite teams' draft picks.

[Scrap Irony]

I picked all the best players. I swear. No need to look it up.

[kaldaniels]

That's 7 first rounders in a row that made it to the Show. I wonder if any other team from 04-10 did the same.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

That's 7 first rounders in a row that made it to the Show. I wonder if any other team from 04-10 did the same.

Only the Tigers and Nationals/Expos did it, too. Six teams were only one season away from accomplishing that.

The Red Sox had five first rounders from the 2005 draft make it to MLB. The Dodgers haven't had anyone since 2006.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I was on board with all of their picks in the first round with the lone exception of Drew Stubbs, where I believe all I said was "anyone but Drew Stubbs".

In fairness to the Reds, at least Stubbs has become a useful major leaguer. Only seven players out of the 44 first round and sandwich picks have a higher career WAR than Stubbs, and only four of them (Linecum, Scherzer, Kennedy, Chamberlain) were available when the Reds picked. Of those 44 guys, 14 never even made it to the majors and another 13 have WARs that are negative. Drew Stubbs might not have been the optimal pick, but he was a good pick.

[lollipopcurve]

In fairness to the Reds, at least Stubbs has become a useful major leaguer. Only seven players out of the 44 first round and sandwich picks have a higher career WAR than Stubbs, and only four of them (Linecum, Scherzer, Kennedy, Chamberlain) were available when the Reds picked. Of those 44 guys, 14 never even made it to the majors and another 13 have WARs that are negative. Drew Stubbs might not have been the optimal pick, but he was a good pick.

Nice post. Big picture analysis of draft results is always helpful.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Only the Tigers and Nationals/Expos did it, too. Six teams were only one season away from accomplishing that.

The Red Sox had five first rounders from the 2005 draft make it to MLB. The Dodgers haven't had anyone since 2006.

So the top 2 (record wise) NL teams and the AL World Series rep from last year hit on their picks, while the team with a ginormous payroll who hasn't made the playoffs in 3 years did not?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

In fairness to the Reds, at least Stubbs has become a useful major leaguer. Only seven players out of the 44 first round and sandwich picks have a higher career WAR than Stubbs, and only four of them (Linecum, Scherzer, Kennedy, Chamberlain) were available when the Reds picked. Of those 44 guys, 14 never even made it to the majors and another 13 have WARs that are negative. Drew Stubbs might not have been the optimal pick, but he was a good pick.

Certainly. At the time though, I just didn't like the idea of a college guy who had serious questions about his ability to actually hit. I still don't like the idea of drafting a guy with that profile that early in the draft. It worked out some, but let's also realize that high schoolers from that draft are still just 24 years old, so career WAR doesn't really do us much yet for a lot of them. Stubbs was a successful pick though. Can't argue that.