Chapman to start? Maybe not

[MrRedLegger]

Originally Posted by Kc61

This topic is so overblown.

Sometimes fans have an idea that the ballclub flatly rejects. That's a reason for frustration. Here, the Reds are obviously strongly considering Chappy as a starter. So what's the complaint?

And the team won 97 games last year, if he winds up in the bullpen it isn't a tragedy. It's a formula that worked and if after a trial period the Reds conclude he belongs in the pen, so be it, he'll still help the ballclub.

I'm not yet a strong believer in Broxton, so I'm cautious in my view of his deal. But it's worth money to have a strong late inning bullpen. The idea around here that your key relievers somehow should spring from the earth - and be paid minimally - is not something I accept.

Most ballclubs would be thrilled to have Chapman on their teams, as a starter OR a closer. I feel that way, and if the Reds decide he should reliever, at least he's on the team playing an important role. That's all I ask.

We were 6 wins above our pythagorean expectation. I believe this to be because of the strong bullpen the team didn't let up runs when it really counted. Pythag is based solely on runs allowed and runs scored. B-R calls those six games "luck" but I call it a return from our investment...in a bullpen. We signed Broxton for quite a bit, but the Broxton that pitched for the Reds in '12 is worth that in todays game.

Like any big contract, and in this case, Chapman to the rotation, the proper evaluation of these moves can only be done in hindsight.

[NeilHamburger]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

The Reds do not have $18MM "per year" locked up with those guys. That is kind of misleading.

Also, at this stage Walt can do whatever he wants as far as I am concerned. He has my trust.

I suppose it depends how you account for all the deferred money in Chapman's contract of 30 million over six years.

But, either way, if Chapman is the closer they are paying Broxton 7 million a year, and Marshall 5.5 million a year for middle relief. 12.5 million a year for 2 middle relief pitchers is not something I agree with at all unless the Reds are considering a 125 million dollar payroll.

[mace]

Sorry if this has already been posted, but at quick glance I didn't see it anywhere. It's a pretty extensive and informative story on the whole package of Chapman.

http://www.cincinnatimagazine.com/fe...spx?ID=1885174

[Brutus]

There were people that said trading for Broxton was a dumb move. All he proceeded to do was put up a 3.5-1 K:BB ratio, nearly 2-1 grounders to flyballs and a 2.82 ERA.

Maybe the 3-year deal isn't such a bad move after all. I trust this isn't Jocketty's first rodeo.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by NeilHamburger

I suppose it depends how you account for all the deferred money in Chapman's contract of 30 million over six years.

But, either way, if Chapman is the closer they are paying Broxton 7 million a year, and Marshall 5.5 million a year for middle relief. 12.5 million a year for 2 middle relief pitchers is not something I agree with at all unless the Reds are considering a 125 million dollar payroll.

For the record, Brox + Marshall = 8.5MM in 2013.

[NeilHamburger]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

For the record, Brox + Marshall = 8.5MM in 2013.

Ok,
8.5 this year
12.5 next year
16.5 in 2015 assuming the Reds don't excercise an option on Broxton

If anything that just makes Broxton harder to trade if Chapman is in the bullpen.

[Raisor]

If Chapman doesn't end up in the rotation, he should be traded. I think he's worth more as a trading chip than in the bullpen. He could beinf in a huge haul.

[NeilHamburger]

Yes, take advantage of some GM who still overvalues a closer. The Giants lost their's last year, I think they did alright.

Then again I would've made JJ Hoover the closer and used the Broxton money elsewhere, so I probably don't value a "true closer" as much as most.

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by mace

Sorry if this has already been posted, but at quick glance I didn't see it anywhere. It's a pretty extensive and informative story on the whole package of Chapman.

http://www.cincinnatimagazine.com/fe...spx?ID=1885174

Very interesting story. Thanks for the post.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by NeilHamburger

Yes, take advantage of some GM who still overvalues a closer. The Giants lost their's last year, I think they did alright.

Then again I would've made JJ Hoover the closer and used the Broxton money elsewhere, so I probably don't value a "true closer" as much as most.

The Giants also have 4 relievers making avg salary of $4MM or more. They obviously value a good, proven bullpen as well.

[757690]

Originally Posted by membengal

I think we can all just presume that Dusty has reservations, others don't, and it will be play out over the next month or two. Not really worth parsing over Dusty's every word on the subject when his stance is known. He would rather go with the known (Chapman closing) than the unknown (can he sucessfully convert). Given that he is responsible for this team winning, I understand his worry. Walt is likely bigger picture on this.

This seems very accurate. The key quote is that Dusty says its not his call, which is encouraging. Still it's frustrating to know your team's manager is so shortsided.

[NeilHamburger]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

The Giants also have 4 relievers making avg salary of $4MM or more. They obviously value a good, proven bullpen as well.

I'm about equally as confident in Hoover as I am in Broxton. It's not like Broxton is lockdown, he was ran out of LA, and got the old "gas can" nickname that is never a good thing for a reliever.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by NeilHamburger

I'm about equally as confident in Hoover as I am in Broxton. It's not like Broxton is lockdown, he was ran out of LA, and got the old "gas can" nickname that is never a good thing for a reliever.

Even though it is off topic, I think people might be a little too confident in Hoover at this stage. I hope he is as good as advertised, but 30 innings isn't really a large body of work at the ML level.

[NeilHamburger]

I don't want it to seem like this a major issue for the team this year. I think this is the best team I've seen the Reds have (on paper) going into a season.

And I don't dislike the Marshall contract, and if Chapman can't cut it as a starter I still see value in him as a dominate force out of the bullpen.

I guess my main beef is the potential for all 3 to be in the bullpen and the fact that it could limit funds for other needs going forward, and really beyond that the Broxton deal in general is not high up on my greatest moves list.

[cincrazy]

Why is Dusty shortsighted for wanting Chapman in the bullpen? Chapman has two pitches. He's not consistent with the slider, and do we really trust him to locate his fastball for seven innings, and to maintain his velocity? We've seen what happens when his velocity falls. He gets smoked. As a starter, his velocity WILL fall. Dusty knows this. I know this. We all know this. We know what we have in Chapman the closer. Which is a lock down, forget about it, game is over closer. What is he as a starter? Is he Randy Johnson? Maybe. Or maybe he's Daniel Bard or Joba Chamberlain, is a total disaster, has his confidence ruined, gets hurt, and then where do we sit?