Bailey signs 1yr/$5.35MM Deal - Avoids Arbitration

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by jojo

Who is Bailey's agent?

Steve Hillard of Octagon Sports, if the Google is to be believed.

I'd be seeking other representation if I were Homer. I'll negotiate a "split the difference" on an arbitration case for half of what he's paying his current agent.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Said it in the other thread, but I think Homer is pretty foolhardy to turn down long term dollars given his injury history and (other than last year) fairly mixed bag of results.

If I were his agent, I'd have told him to jump all over a 4-5 year deal if the finances were even remotely competitive.

A 4 year deal still leaves him hitting free agency at 30, in prime position to sign a 5-6 year deal if he pitches well. And, if his arm explodes or he underperforms, they can't take away the ~$35m he'd likely earn on a 4 year deal ($4 / $7 / $11 / $14 ish)

I don't know. If Homer stays healthy and has a couple of "meh" season, he'll probably get the same money Edwin Jackson got (4 year, $52 Million). If he progresses, he'll be looking at Anibal Sanchez type money.

Unless he has a major shoulder injury, I think a 4 year, $35 Million deal is a probable worst case. I wouldn't sign that in this skyrocketing environment if I was Homer.

Think that's a lot? I'm guessing Mat Latos tops $100 Million when the time comes.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Steve Hillard of Octagon Sports, if the Google is to be believed.

I'd be seeking other representation if I were Homer. I'll negotiate a "split the difference" on an arbitration case for half of what he's paying his current agent.

I don't know if your comment was tongue in cheek but "split the difference" or something very close to that is pretty common for arb guys going one year. Maybe the agent should be commended for submitting a crafty arb number in the first place...I have no clue. But there's not gonna be much separation between agents once the arb numbers are submitted. Too many hard feelings can be caused over a relatively small amount of money and I think agents and teams for the most part have come to grips with that.

[kaldaniels]

I will say this as I've seen the prospects of a Bailey LTC be compared to Votto a few years ago. (The "do they want to be in Cincy?" type remark)

To me it does say something that Votto signed the 3 year deal his first arb year while Bailey is going year to year, and somewhat coming down to the wire this year.

Who knows what will transpire though...the ball is in Homer's court for the next year.

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I will say this as I've seen the prospects of a Bailey LTC be compared to Votto a few years ago. (The "do they want to be in Cincy?" type remark)

To me it does say something that Votto signed the 3 year deal his first arb year while Bailey is going year to year, and somewhat coming down to the wire this year.

Who knows what will transpire though...the ball is in Homer's court for the next year.

I'm sorry, but, how do you figure? Votto and Bailey were going to be here for the same amount of time anyhow, and whether they signed the three year deal (Votto) or went year to year (Bailey) is pretty much irrelevant.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Nathan

I'm sorry, but, how do you figure? Votto and Bailey were going to be here for the same amount of time anyhow, and whether they signed the three year deal (Votto) or went year to year (Bailey) is pretty much irrelevant.

Totally a gut feeling here...

Now this is not a knock on Bailey, but I sense that he feels he is better than what his numbers say. (And I'm inclined to believe him). And since arbitration figures are pretty much based on his numbers, I bet he feels underpaid. Couple that with the fact that he only has to ride out one more arb year after this and he just may be inclined to go the free agent route. Like I said its totally up to Homer and I don't live in his head. But there seems to be a bit of a chip on his shoulder, which I'm perfectly fine with.

Now if you'll excuse me I'm gonna go watch the last 3 outs of his no hitter on my DVR.

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by Nathan

I'm sorry, but, how do you figure? Votto and Bailey were going to be here for the same amount of time anyhow, and whether they signed the three year deal (Votto) or went year to year (Bailey) is pretty much irrelevant.

I agree, but I am somewhat puzzled Jocketty would publicly declare that this was the hardest arbitration case he's ever negotiated. Almost sounds a little contentious from Jocketty. That doesn't bode well for future deals.

Thing is, Homer said a week or two ago that no one had even mentioned a multi-year deal to him. It seems to me that the idea was to get a deal done for this year and avoid the hearing. An extension can always be talked about later.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

I agree, but I am somewhat puzzled Jocketty would publicly declare that this was the hardest arbitration case he's ever negotiated. Almost sounds a little contentious from Jocketty. That doesn't bode well for future deals.

Thing is, Homer said a week or two ago that no one had even mentioned a multi-year deal to him. It seems to me that the idea was to get a deal done for this year and avoid the hearing. An extension can always be talked about later.

I think Walt said hardest season, not hardest case. And it was a tough year.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by mth123

I don't know. If Homer stays healthy and has a couple of "meh" season, he'll probably get the same money Edwin Jackson got (4 year, $52 Million). If he progresses, he'll be looking at Anibal Sanchez type money.

Yep, I'm speculating that Homer is out to maximize his income. Also speculating that he's not really excited about being here long term (he'll stay only if the money is right).

From that POV, Homer is smart just to take one year.
If he's healthy, he'll likely get more cash in 2014 than he would've by signing a 2 year deal now. Also, from that POV, Homer would be foolish to give up any FA years.