Should Bronson Arroyo make the Reds Hall of Fame?

[savafan]

As things stand right now, Arroyo is #22 all time in terms of Cincinnati pitchers for career wins with 91, only 3 victories behind Jim O'Toole and 6 behind Jose Rijo. If history is any indication, he should easily pick up the 10 victories needed to move past Mario Soto on the team's career victories list. In addition, he's #12 all time currently among Reds pitchers in career strikeouts, and looks to move up that list during the 2013 season as well.

I've always been a Bronson fan during his time with the Reds, but it seems like many here on Redszone have thought of Arroyo as an overpaid and unnecessary piece of the team since the trade that brought him here. There have been numerous threads over the years where I've rushed in to defend Bronson, as I like what he brings to the team with his bulldog attitude on the field, as well as the way he carries himself off the field with his honest and carefree attitude.

So, the question is this: At the end of his tenure here, would you say that Bronson Arroyo deserves a place in the Reds Hall of Fame among the best to ever wear the wishbone "C", or is he not worthy to be considered among the all time greatest Reds pitchers, in spite of what his numbers say?

[AtomicDumpling]

I am guessing he will eventually make it into the Reds Hall of Fame, mostly because he will have pitched 8 years with the team and started a lot of games. He has been essentially a league average pitcher with the Reds (4.09 ERA, 106 ERA+). Including his 2013 salary the Reds will have paid him at least $65 million. That is a lot for an average pitcher. Does being an average player meet the standard for admission to the Reds Hall of Fame? If so, that is a pretty low bar.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

I am guessing he will eventually make it into the Reds Hall of Fame, mostly because he will have pitched 8 years with the team and started a lot of games. He has been essentially a league average pitcher with the Reds (4.09 ERA, 106 ERA+). Including his 2013 salary the Reds will have paid him at least $65 million. That is a lot for an average pitcher. Does being an average player meet the standard for admission to the Reds Hall of Fame? If so, that is a pretty low bar.

When it comes to Cincy starting pitching, the bar is pretty much subterranean.

[MWM]

Absolutely. When it comes to team HOFs, the criteria should be a lot different than the national HOF. I'd love to see him in the Reds HOF.

[alexad]

It's hard to believe he has been here for 8 years.

[jojo]

NM

[jojo]

Here's a list of the 28 pitchers who have been inducted into the Reds HOF and their career numbers as a Red (Arroyo is at the bottom for comparison):

	Name 	         W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
1	Jack Billingham	87	63	2	215	190	1270	4.44	2.96	0.77	0.283	72.10%	3.85	3.8	12.7
2	Ewell Blackwell	79	77	8	221	163	1281.1	5.75	3.74	0.45	0.267	71.50%	3.32	3.22	25.5
3	Pedro Borbon	62	33	76	531	4	920.2	3.51	2.12	0.47	0.288	73.80%	3.32	3.28	7.2
4	Tom Browning	123	88	0	300	298	1911	4.7	2.38	1.1	0.27	72.90%	3.92	4.2	17.6
5	Clay Carroll	71	43	119	486	15	856	4.84	3.23	0.38	0.281	77.40%	2.73	3.15	8.2
6	Paul Derringer	161	150	17	393	322	2615.1	3.65	1.69	0.4	0.285	68.70%	3.36	3.28	44.3
7	Pete Donohue	127	110	11	316	256	1996.1	2.42	1.75	0.26	0.294	65.10%	3.73	3.52	31.6
8	Bob Ewing	108	103	4	252	228	2020.1	3.94	2.29	0.11	0.273	67.30%	2.37	2.42	38.9
9	Wayne Granger	22	17	73	227	0	329.1	4.29	2.6	0.63	0.269	73.20%	2.92	3.43	2.2
10	Don Gullett	91	44	11	236	156	1187	5.89	3.12	0.74	0.256	76.70%	3.03	3.37	15.4
11	Noodles Hahn	127	92	0	237	225	1987.1	4.08	1.7	0.12	0.282	66.30%	2.52	2.59	47.6
12	Joey Jay	75	63	4	186	150	1102.2	5.78	3.16	0.95	0.274	73.60%	3.8	3.76	14.2
13	Brooks Lawrence	51	48	20	194	99	786	4.09	2.92	0.94	0.271	70.50%	4.06	3.94	8.2
14	Red Lucas	109	99	6	257	202	1768.2	2.06	1.55	0.42	0.272	66.20%	3.64	3.75	23.6
15	Dolf Luque	154	152	10	395	319	2668.2	3.27	2.55	0.26	0.274	68.70%	3.09	3.48	37.8
16	Jim Maloney	134	81	4	289	258	1818.2	7.88	3.89	0.67	0.267	75.30%	3.16	3.09	37.4
17	Tony Mullane	163	124	9	316	285	2599	3.44	3.21	0.25	0.268	59.00%	3.15	3.6	41.9
18	Gary Nolan	110	67	0	245	242	1656.1	5.62	2.23	0.77	0.259	76.10%	3.02	3.16	30.4
19	Joe Nuxhall	130	109	18	484	274	2169.1	5.35	2.93	0.82	0.284	72.60%	3.8	3.54	32
20	Jim O'Toole	94	81	4	255	228	1561	5.78	3.04	0.66	0.28	70.90%	3.59	3.29	30.4
21	Bob Purkey	103	76	3	244	217	1588	3.6	1.97	0.88	0.264	72.60%	3.49	3.78	22.8
22	Jose Rijo	97	61	0	280	215	1478	7.62	2.76	0.62	0.283	76.70%	2.83	3.06	34.4
23	Eppa Rixey	179	148	8	440	356	2890.2	2.05	1.88	0.22	0.283	67.10%	3.33	3.58	43.2
24	Tom Seaver	75	46	0	158	158	1085.2	6.06	2.96	0.85	0.252	75.10%	3.18	3.56	16.3
25	Mario Soto	100	92	4	297	224	1730.1	7.54	3.42	0.89	0.253	73.30%	3.47	3.53	26.9
26	Vander Meer	116	116	1	313	278	2028	5.55	4.76	0.4	0.263	72.70%	3.41	3.57	27
27	Bucky Walters	160	107	4	312	296	2355.2	3.36	3.08	0.42	0.255	73.50%	2.93	3.58	30.6
28	William White	136	69	0	208	207	1832	2.29	1.59						
?	Bronson Arroyo	91	82	0	233	233	1488.1	5.97	2.41	1.33	0.279	74.80%	4.09	4.62	13.7

Concerning all pitchers in the majors since 2006 (the beginning of his Reds career), he is tied for 7th with 91 wins, tied for 1st with 233 games started, tied for 6th with 1488 IP, tied for 75th for ERA, tied for 161st for FIP, tied for 128th for xFIP and tied for 57th for WAR.

Relative to all Reds pitchers since 1872, Bronson is tied for 22nd with Gullett for wins, he is 12th for starts (just behind Gary Nolan), 23rd for IP (10 innings ahead of Jose Rijo). Relative to all starting pitchers who pitched at least 300 innings for the Reds, he's 108th all-time based upon ERA, 141st all time based upon his FIP, and 39th all time based upon his WAR.

The bar is a lot lower for a team-specific HOF and some of the allure has to do more with narrative and longevity.

Arroyo has been an innings eater and he measures well in the workhorse category all-time as a red. But he'd easily be the worst starting pitcher in the Reds HOF if he was inducted. Probably the most similar guy would be Tom Browning but Browning also pitched a perfect game and won a game in a world series the Reds won.

I'd argue Arroyo would be a fringe HOFer for the Reds who wouldn't make it if his career ended today.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

When it comes to Cincy starting pitching, the bar is pretty much subterranean.

This is an interesting point, if only because it makes me wonder whether the bar should HOF bar should be that much lower for an individual franchise.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

When it comes to Cincy starting pitching, the bar is pretty much subterranean.

True. 1990's and 2000's saw some terrible Reds pitching staffs. If you look at the team's entire history though there have been a lot of excellent pitchers. Arroyo may look good compared to the last 20 years, but he pales in comparison to many Reds pitchers of yesteryear.

[REDREAD]

This is an easy yes.
One of the best pitchers this franchise has had in a long, long time.

In terms of career value, he might be the best player the Reds have had since Larkin.. (although Phillips is a contender as well).

Isn't Sean Casey in the Reds HOF? No offense to Casey, but if that's the bar, Bronson easily gets in.

[scott91575]

I initially said no due to lack of playoff success, but he is comparable to Joey Jay, Red Lucas, and Jim O'Toole. So I suppose I would put him at yes if those guys are in.

[George Anderson]

If Wayne Granger is in then Arroyo is a no brainer.

I think the Reds HOF is nothing more than a collection of Reds greats but also Reds players that maybe weren't very great but happened to be fan favorites. I don't see it as a HOF but instead something used as an event to get fans out to the park one weekend out of the year to cheer a fan favorite as an all time Reds great whether they really were or not.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by George Anderson

If Wayne Granger is in then Arroyo is a no brainer.

I think the Reds HOF is nothing more than a collection of Reds greats but also Reds players that maybe weren't very great but happened to be fan favorites. I don't see it as a HOF but instead something used as an event to get fans out to the park one weekend out of the year to cheer a fan favorite as an all time Reds great whether they really were or not.

Reds HOF yep, no brainer too... colorful guy, workhorse... a better pitcher than another colorful workhorse with curly hair and threw left. Reds WW2 have been hitters first, guys like Arroyo might not be the Smoltz or Robin Roberts of the organization but in the Reds realm they are big players... I mean jeeze Harry Craft??

CINCINNATI REDS
CAREER
1946-2012

INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
BATTERS FACED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
ERA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL WINS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL LOSSES displayed only--not a sorting criteria

GAMES STARTED                   GS       IP       BFP      ERA      N_W      N_L    
1    Tom Browning                298   1911       8017     -.22      104      107   
2    Joe Nuxhall                 274   2170       9195     0.03      128      111   
3    Jim Maloney                 258   1819       7598     0.34      124       91   
4    Gary Nolan                  242   1657       6747     0.53      102       75   
5    Bronson Arroyo              233   1488.1     6277     0.10       91       82   
6    Jim O'Toole                 228   1561       6591     0.12       96       79   
7    Mario Soto                  224   1730.1     7147     0.15      105       87   
8    Bob Purkey                  217   1588       6621     0.33       99       80   
9    Jose Rijo                   215   1478       6056     0.99      101       57   
10   Aaron Harang                213   1343       5730     0.04       81       74

[Ravenlord]

i suppose it would depend on how much you value having never missed a start and going 200 or so innings the entire time, even in his worst year. i'm inclined to say yes, in part because team HOFs are just as much about personalities as they are numbers.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Reds HOF yep, no brainer too... colorful guy, workhorse... a better pitcher than another colorful workhorse with curly hair and threw left. Reds WW2 have been hitters first, guys like Arroyo might not be the Smoltz or Robin Roberts of the organization but in the Reds realm they are big players... I mean jeeze Harry Craft??

CINCINNATI REDS
CAREER
1946-2012

INNINGS PITCHED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
BATTERS FACED displayed only--not a sorting criteria
ERA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL WINS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
NEUTRAL LOSSES displayed only--not a sorting criteria

GAMES STARTED                   GS       IP       BFP      ERA      N_W      N_L    
1    Tom Browning                298   1911       8017     -.22      104      107   
2    Joe Nuxhall                 274   2170       9195     0.03      128      111   
3    Jim Maloney                 258   1819       7598     0.34      124       91   
4    Gary Nolan                  242   1657       6747     0.53      102       75   
5    Bronson Arroyo              233   1488.1     6277     0.10       91       82   
6    Jim O'Toole                 228   1561       6591     0.12       96       79   
7    Mario Soto                  224   1730.1     7147     0.15      105       87   
8    Bob Purkey                  217   1588       6621     0.33       99       80   
9    Jose Rijo                   215   1478       6056     0.99      101       57   
10   Aaron Harang                213   1343       5730     0.04       81       74

What's interesting is that this shows what a miniscule number of decent starting pitchers the club has had in those 65 years or so. And everyone's in the hall except Aaron Harang, who is still playing. And aside from Rijo, there aren't any others from the last 25 years besides Arroyo and Harang. Curious as to why Billingham doesn't show up or, for that matter, Seaver.

Glad to see Arroyo's ERA showing in persepctive. Am I understanding that as just being 0.10 over today's norm?