Should Bronson Arroyo make the Reds Hall of Fame?

[camisadelgolf]

Arroyo deserves it more than Harang, and Harang deserves it, too. There are 25 starting pitchers in the Reds Hall of Fame, and you'd have a difficult time arguing that those two aren't more deserving than some of the existing members. They'll have to kick out Jack Billingham before they refuse Arroyo.

[Hap]

He is in a contract year. He is trying to get another contract with someone, be it the Reds or anyone else.

He will therefore, in my opinion, have a very good season, which, in my opinion, will improve his overall positioning among the ranks of those whom are at least as good as Jack Billingham or Gary Nolan or Tom Browning, or Joey Jay, or Bob Purkey, but not quite as good as Mario Soto, or Jose Rijo, or Jim Maloney, or Don Gullett, or Bucky Walters.

[757690]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

I am guessing he will eventually make it into the Reds Hall of Fame, mostly because he will have pitched 8 years with the team and started a lot of games. He has been essentially a league average pitcher with the Reds (4.09 ERA, 106 ERA+). Including his 2013 salary the Reds will have paid him at least $65 million. That is a lot for an average pitcher. Does being an average player meet the standard for admission to the Reds Hall of Fame? If so, that is a pretty low bar.

Pitching 200 innings for 7 straight years with a slightly above average ERA does not equate to a league average pitcher, imo. I don't have the stats, but I imagine that puts Arroyo in the top 10% of all starters from that same period. I would argue that that type of production makes Arroyo an elite pitcher, all things considered.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by 757690

Pitching 200 innings for 7 straight years with a slightly above average ERA does not equate to a league average pitcher, imo. I don't have the stats, but I imagine that puts Arroyo in the top 10% of all starters from that same period. I would argue that that type of production makes Arroyo an elite pitcher, all things considered.

Top 10% in what?

Based upon WAR, he isn't even in the top 25% (ranked 58th out of 219 starting pitchers who have pitched at least 300 innings between 2006 and 2012).

But keep in mind, he has needed a lot of innings to rack up his WAR of 13.7.

If you limit the list to 1000+ innings, he's at the bottom among guys like John Garland, Joe Saunders, Kyle Lohse, Ervin Santana, Paul Maholm... or to look at it another way, ignore innings when populating the list of starters between 2006-2012 and just rank arms by WAR. Arroyo is nestled between John Smoltz and Mike Mussina. That's great company to be in but Arroyo needed 65% more innings to get there. Guys who never made single start during that time like Rivera and Papelbon have more WAR than Arroyo.

He's a rubber arm. Jocketty has put great defenses behind Arroyo for most of Bronson's career as a Red. Arroyo may get into the Reds HOF because of longevity and cult of personality but it's Jocketty who deserves the credit for making the choice tolerable.

[kaldaniels]

Where does Arroyo rank in terms of IP in the majors since he became a Red (2006)? Buerhle is my only guy who I think probably has more. For that matter, where does Harang rank? I bet he is up there respectably.

And while we're at it, where should I go to look up such a question?

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by jojo

Top 10% in what?

Based upon WAR, he isn't even in the top 25% (ranked 58th out of 219 starting pitchers who have pitched at least 300 innings between 2006 and 2012).

But keep in mind, he has needed a lot of innings to rack up his WAR of 13.7.

If you limit the list to 1000+ innings, he's at the bottom among guys like John Garland, Joe Saunders, Kyle Lohse, Ervin Santana, Paul Maholm... or to look at it another way, ignore innings when populating the list of starters between 2006-2012 and just rank arms by WAR. Arroyo is nestled between John Smoltz and Mike Mussina. That's great company to be in but Arroyo needed 65% more innings to get there. Guys who never made single start during that time like Rivera and Papelbon have more WAR than Arroyo.

He's a rubber arm. Jocketty has put great defenses behind Arroyo for most of Bronson's career as a Red. Arroyo may get into the Reds HOF because of longevity and cult of personality but it's Jocketty who deserves the credit for making the choice tolerable.

Arroyo is such an unique pitcher I enjoy the discussions that arise from his performance.

Off the top of my head I consider him a pitcher who is right about league average. (Totally painting with a broad brush) Certainly above replacement level. So how valuable is 200+ IP of league average pitching basically penciled into your roster?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Where does Arroyo rank in terms of IP in the majors since he became a Red (2006)? Buerhle is my only guy who I think probably has more. For that matter, where does Harang rank? I bet he is up there respectably.

And while we're at it, where should I go to look up such a question?

ERA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

INNINGS PITCHED                 IP       BFP      GS      RSAA      ERA    
1    C.C. Sabathia            1591.2     6526      226      223     1.17   
2    Roy Halladay             1571       6325      218      207     1.23   
3    Justin Verlander         1542.1     6354      230      173     0.93   
4    Dan Haren                1541       6349      233      106     0.70   
5    Felix Hernandez          1536       6362      226      130     1.05   
6    Matt Cain                1490.1     6148      228      118     0.86   
7    Bronson Arroyo           1488.1     6277      233       40     0.10   
8    Mark Buehrle             1455       6086      224       74     0.32   
9    James Shields            1454.2     6039      217       33     0.40   
10   Cliff Lee                1409       5795      204      126     0.88   
11   Cole Hamels              1376.2     5601      211      130     0.81   
12   Derek Lowe               1346.1     5744      222       -7     0.04   
13   Ervin Santana            1342       5699      210      -23     0.00   
14   Jered Weaver             1320.1     5382      207      133     1.05   
15   A.J. Burnett             1309       5638      209        2     0.03   
16   Paul Maholm              1291.1     5555      210      -26     -.15   
17   Josh Beckett             1283       5373      201       62     0.20   
18   Aaron Harang             1274.2     5446      203       24     0.15   
19   Wandy Rodriguez          1253       5334      208       27     0.28   
20   Tim Hudson               1249.2     5190      193       83     0.65   
21   Livan Hernandez          1238.1     5428      191     -102     -.74   
22   Roy Oswalt               1232.1     5119      190      101     0.78   
23   Barry Zito               1227       5303      206      -34     -.12   
24   Joe Blanton              1225.1     5249      195      -49     -.24   
25   Tim Lincecum             1214       5073      188       87     0.80

2006-2012
Seasons with 
INNINGS PITCHED >= 200

1    Mark Buehrle              7   
T2   Cliff Lee                 6   
T2   Bronson Arroyo            6   
T2   C.C. Sabathia             6   
T2   Dan Haren                 6   
T2   Roy Halladay              6   
T2   Matt Cain                 6   
T2   James Shields             6   
T2   Justin Verlander          6   
10   Felix Hernandez           5

Reds since 1900

MODERN (1900-)
ALL POSITIONS
INNINGS PITCHED >= 200


1    Paul Derringer           10   
T2   Eppa Rixey                9   
T2   Dolf Luque                9   
4    Bob Ewing                 7   
T5   Bucky Walters             6   
T5   Bronson Arroyo            6   
T5   Red Lucas                 6   
T5   Johnny Vander Meer        6   
T5   Tom Browning              6   
T10  Gary Nolan                5   
T10  Jim Maloney               5   
T10  Pete Donohue              5   
T10  Bob Purkey                5   
T10  Noodles Hahn              5

Note only 7 of those guys were originally Reds and of the top 7 only Ewing was originally a Red. Franchise weakness #1

[757690]

Originally Posted by jojo

Top 10% in what?

Based upon WAR, he isn't even in the top 25% (ranked 58th out of 219 starting pitchers who have pitched at least 300 innings between 2006 and 2012).

But keep in mind, he has needed a lot of innings to rack up his WAR of 13.7.

If you limit the list to 1000+ innings, he's at the bottom among guys like John Garland, Joe Saunders, Kyle Lohse, Ervin Santana, Paul Maholm... or to look at it another way, ignore innings when populating the list of starters between 2006-2012 and just rank arms by WAR. Arroyo is nestled between John Smoltz and Mike Mussina. That's great company to be in but Arroyo needed 65% more innings to get there. Guys who never made single start during that time like Rivera and Papelbon have more WAR than Arroyo.

He's a rubber arm. Jocketty has put great defenses behind Arroyo for most of Bronson's career as a Red. Arroyo may get into the Reds HOF because of longevity and cult of personality but it's Jocketty who deserves the credit for making the choice tolerable.

All I'm saying is that there probably aren't that many pitchers, who have logged as many innings as Arroyo has over those years, and had a league average or better ERA.

WOY showed that there have been six. That definitely puts Arroyo in the top ten percent, actually, closer to the top one percent of starting pitchers during that time period. To me, that says he's an elite pitcher. Having a league average or better ERA and pitching lots of innings are to two biggest criteria I have for starting pitchers.

As for WAR, it's just not a valuable tool for evaluating pitchers. But even if you think it is, it clearly has a strong bias against pitchers like Arroyo who consistently outperform their peripherals. No matter how much you believe in DIPS, there has to be a point when a player outperforms his peripherals enough times where you have to say that his actual performance is a better judge of his talent than his peripherals. Arroyo is perfect example of this.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Where does Arroyo rank in terms of IP in the majors since he became a Red (2006)? Buerhle is my only guy who I think probably has more. For that matter, where does Harang rank? I bet he is up there respectably.

And while we're at it, where should I go to look up such a question?

BA=7th

[jojo]

Originally Posted by 757690

All I'm saying is that there probably aren't that many pitchers, who have logged as many innings as Arroyo has over those years, and had a league average or better ERA.

WOY showed that there have been six. That definitely puts Arroyo in the top ten percent, actually, closer to the top one percent of starting pitchers during that time period. To me, that says he's an elite pitcher. Having a league average or better ERA and pitching lots of innings are to two biggest criteria I have for starting pitchers.

As for WAR, it's just not a valuable tool for evaluating pitchers. But even if you think it is, it clearly has a strong bias against pitchers like Arroyo who consistently outperform their peripherals. No matter how much you believe in DIPS, there has to be a point when a player outperforms his peripherals enough times where you have to say that his actual performance is a better judge of his talent than his peripherals. Arroyo is perfect example of this.

Arroyo really only outperforms his peripherals in front of Walt's defenses. This has been shown before.

You're talking about elite. WAR is a great tool for this discussion because while he's logged a lot of innings, they haven't been especially stellar ones. Guys who could legitimately be in an argument about elite like Smoltz and Mussina, only require roughly a third of the innings to post the same WAR as Arroyo has as a Red.

[757690]

Originally Posted by jojo

Arroyo really only outperforms his peripherals in front of Walt's defenses. This has been shown before.

You're talking about elite. WAR is a great tool for this discussion because while he's logged a lot of innings, they haven't been especially stellar ones. Guys who could legitimately be in an argument about elite like Smoltz and Mussina, only require roughly a third of the innings to post the same WAR as Arroyo has as a Red.

Knuckleball pitchers consistently outperform their peripherals, as do some pitchers with strong off-speed pitches. This is because they have shown the ability to maintain a lower than average BABIP. They are able to enduce weak contact.

They're aren't a lot of these out there, but there is plenty of evidence to argue that Arroyo is one of them.

The defense argument doesn't hold much water, since the would mean that every Reds pitcher during that time frame would outperform their peripherals the same way Arroyo did. The fact that Arroyo has when others haven't tells me that at the very leastthere is something special about Arroyo that enables him to take advantage of his defense.

Like I said before, Arroyo has done what I consider to be the most important thing a pitcher can do. He has pitched a lot of innigs in which he has limited the other team from scoring. Really everything else is noise.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by 757690

The defense argument doesn't hold much water, since the would mean that every Reds pitcher during that time frame would outperform their peripherals the same way Arroyo did. The fact that Arroyo has when others haven't tells me that at the very leastthere is something special about Arroyo that enables him to take advantage of his defense.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=721

My take on Arroyo?

His ERA has been driven by his BABIP both of which have dramatically improved with the significant improvement of the defense behind him. In other words, significant interaction between his performance and the Reds defense is a large reason why he's outperformed his peripherals so dramatically (i.e. his ERA has been better than his FIP would predict) over the last several seasons. Or to say it another way, put him in front of the Reds defense of 2006-2008 and his ERA would be much closer to his FIP.

Why do I argue this?

Here is a breakdown of Arroyo by year showing his ERA, FIP and BABIP. When the FIP-ERA is positive, it means his ERA was lower than his peripherals would predict (i.e. his ERA outperformed his FIP):

Arroyo				
Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
2006	3.29	4.15	0.86	0.271
2007	4.23	4.57	0.34	0.309
2008	4.77	4.5	-0.27	0.314
2009	3.84	4.78	0.94	0.265
2010	3.88	4.61	0.73	0.239
2011	5.07	5.71	0.64	0.278

It's important to note that Arroyo's ERA has outperformed his FIP in 5 of the 6 seasons he's been a Red. But many would agree his 2006 ERA was an anomaly that was unsustainble. Certainly the magnitude of difference between his FIP and ERA spanning the 2009-2011 seasons would not have been expected based upon his prior performance or legitimately ascribed to a skillset. Realizing some may argue this point, below follow a few tables that hopefully demonstrate why one might make the above statement.

Here's the same breakdown for the Reds' pitching staff over the same years:

Reds				
Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
2006	4.51	4.63	0.12	0.31
2007	4.94	4.55	-0.39	0.31
2008	4.55	4.53	-0.02	0.312
2009	4.18	4.66	0.48	0.283
2010	4.01	4.18	0.17	0.288
2011	4.16	4.45	0.29	0.282

Here are the BABIP for the Reds staff and Arroyo for the two periods of his tenure as a Red (2006-2008 where the Reds had one of the worst defenses in the league and 2009-2011 where the Reds had one of the best defenses in the league):

BABIP by defensive performance
	         Reds	  Arroyo
2006-08	         0.311	  0.298
2009-11	         0.284	  0.261
Decrease	-0.026	 -0.037

The data above indicates that for the period of 2009-2011 when Arroyo's ERA has significantly outperformed his FIP despite declining peripherals, the Red's staff as a whole has consistently outtperformed it's FIP as well. The third table suggests the reason why-the dramatically improved defense has driven a large part of this outcome. So he did not outperform his FIP independent of significant influence by his defense.

So in other words, if the Reds were to pay market value for Arroyo's production over the last several seasons, they'd essentially be "paying double" for the cost associated with building their defense. This also can explain why Arroyo does not have a great deal of trade value despite his ERA's.

All of that said, a look at Arroyo as a Reds does seem to suggest he has outperformed his peripherals to a greater degree than can solely be explained by the impact of the defense behind him. So there may be room to poke at something interesting here, albeit a minor effect. However, when looking at his time as a Pirate and BoSock, he displayed no discernible ability to consistently outperform his peripherals.

The ultimate take home? If they can get a legit arm for their rotation, they should. At least Arroyo should not be a rationale for preventing such a trade.

[757690]

Originally Posted by jojo

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=721

Do those numbers for the Reds staff include Arroyo's numbers? Or are they the numbers for the all Reds pitchers except Arroyo?

[kaldaniels]

Other than Scott Proctor, who I am not famaliar with who had -1.5 WAR in 40IP in 2011, Bronson Arroyo was the worst WAR pitcher in the majors in 2011 with a negative 1.3 WAR. CJ Wilson had 6+ WAR that year.

In 2012, both pitching 200+ IP, Arroyo and Wilson each had a WAR of 2.5. Baseball is such an interesting game. And as I mentioned earlier, Arroyo is one of the most interesting pitchers in said game.

[camisadelgolf]

WAR measures players on a single-season basis. What Arroyo provides transcends the things players do on a yearly basis (staying healthy, logging tons of innings over several years). In some way, he's deserving of more WAR than he's given credit for. However, I have seen no attempt to measure that. Therefor, I believe WAR doesn't give him enough credit as he deserves. But if you have 100% faith in WAR (and I don't know anyone who does), you still can't make a reasonable argument that he doesn't belong in the Reds Hall of Fame.