RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

04-21-2013, 09:44 AM   #16
Kc61
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,106
Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Brutus Except those 1,000 plate appearances on the field that says he's a .735 OPS hitter. If someone hits 30 homers, those homers are hit. You can't act like they weren't. If someone strikes out 200 times, those strikeouts count. If someone steals 50 bases, those bases are stolen. Similarly, Heisey has a .735 OPS. Heisey has created about 112 runs in his career. Those count. And on a per-plate appearance basis, that's just a hair below average. Those runs he's created count, no matter how much you try to act as if they don't. Call it mathematical. Call it theoretical. Call it whatever you like. But production is production no matter how you slice it. And a .735 OPS is almost roughly league average.
Sometimes the "average" of a player's career is not a good predictor. Analyzing a player is much more complicated than simply taking a mathematical average.

An older player with diminishing skills, for example, can't be judged by a mathematical average. His skills are no longer at their average level.

Similarly, a young player with a short career, non-full time play, large fluctuations from year to year, cannot be evaluated by a mathematical average. Averaging in two or three very different performances tells us nothing.

In Heisey's case the critical factor IMO is the enormous change (to the downside) in his performance with more PAs and the passage of time. It indicates to me that the league has figured him out and that the flaws are not being overcome.

Heisey used to hit righties better. Now he hits lefties better. He used to hit for power. Now he doesn't hit for much power. His overall performance was OPS+ 100 or above. Now it's well below. And last year his .22 BB/K rate was very poor, down there with Valdez and Cairo. These are more important indicators to me.

The question in such a case is why? My view is that he is a fastball hitter and overly aggressive at the plate. Pitchers get him out by mixing pitches and making him swing at bad pitches. Chris complies.

I thought maybe, with maturity, this season would be different. I was hopeful when he took over LF. At this point, I think the Reds have to begin to think about other options who can handle left field most of the time this season.

Not because of Heisey's 2013 start alone. But because of Heisey's trend line. Regardless of his mathematical average.

Last edited by Kc61; 04-21-2013 at 10:30 AM.

 04-21-2013, 12:00 PM #17 kaldaniels Viva la Rolen     Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 7,180 Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins? By all means enlighten me, but since when have we taken a guy's career line and repetitively called it a "mathematical average". The pessimist in me thinks it is to take a bit of a shot at statistics/math.
 04-21-2013, 12:08 PM #18 _Sir_Charles_ Flash the leather!     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Houston, Texas Posts: 7,301 Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins? Ruggiano has looked good this series....but I think it's just that. A good series. I've seen Heisey have loads of good series and then fade right back to his norms or horrific. I doubt Ruggiano is an upgrade over Chris to be honest. __________________ Pitching and defense...anything else is gravy. Mmmm...gravy.
04-21-2013, 07:01 PM   #19
Kc61
Member

Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,106
Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kaldaniels By all means enlighten me, but since when have we taken a guy's career line and repetitively called it a "mathematical average". The pessimist in me thinks it is to take a bit of a shot at statistics/math.
No. It's to take a shot at oversimplification (the concept of oversimplification, not any one poster).

Career averages often result in oversimplified conclusions. I think we need to dig deeper sometimes.

In Heisey's case, I think that is so for the reasons I explained.

Last edited by Kc61; 04-21-2013 at 07:03 PM.

04-21-2013, 08:10 PM   #20
smixsell
Member

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: San Jose
Posts: 1,133
Re: What do you think it would cost to get Ruggiano from the Marlins?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by holster10 One element of certainty, Heisey is not an everyday player. He can't hit a slider or breaking ball away. Until he adjusts, he's a bench player.
Spot on. And I'm beginning to think he will never be an every day player.

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