Originally Posted by mth123
For me, a chance to make a run at a championship in 2014 is more important than getting something for Bailey before he walks. He's a guy that you do make a qualifying offer to. By then, Stephenson should be ready to take his spot.
I really don't see this team getting anything that is sure to help the offense in 2014. I don't see a prospect out there who is a cinch to outhit Cozart's .660 OPS this year (see Profar's .639) or Frazier Low .700's (Nolan Arenado's .708, Jed Gyorko's .713 or Anthony Rendon's .719 an upgrade?). If the team is willing to reduce it's chances at 2014 (i.e. punt) they could probably get a couple longer term prospects for Bailey, but if Arroyo accepts (the reason you'd be dealing Bailey), there will be even less to spend to address the offense. There isn't a Will Myers out there who looks like a high probability offensive force to be had in a deal. Most of the top offensive prospects don't project to be ready in 2014.
I'm against any move that risks 2014 for the longer term and IMO, resigning Arroyo while dealing Bailey for kids does just that. Dealing Chapman doesn't do that IMO because he'd free enough cash to obtain a lower cost backfill to team with the depth from within and he'd free money for other needs.
Eating up the budget and being stuck with a .650ish AAA OPS patrolling CF is punting 2014 IMO. Arroyo on the roster at $14 Million means just that IMO.
How do you reconcile your last sentence/scenario with Walt's comments this week that they will make a real effort to re-sign Choo, fully realizing that it will take a LOT of money? In other words, how is the budget SO tight for 2014 that having Arroyo on the books for one more year at his current salary + $2 million will force you to "dump" Bailey, not improving CF, SS, or 3B, and "punt 2014"?
How will your last scenario possibly play out if/when they are trying to re-sign Choo?