Strike out = to any other out?

[Red_BlueDevil]

Hi all...long time lurker on the board. Over the course of reading the entertaining and informative (b/c of the responses not the original poster) thread started by DunnHater, a question popped into my mind that Hater mentioned but no one seemed to respond to.

I've always believed an out is an out is an out. As in a K is no worse than a ground out or fly out. But I wonder, is this in fact true?

Hater (or bad fundamental's, whatever that joker calls himself) mentioned that, at least by hitting into a group out, you've forced a fielder to do something. He will probably throw you out, but an error might also occur. Other than a dropped third strike, the possibility of an error is almost zero when discussing Ks.

This being the case, shouldn't a ground out or fly out at least be seen as a little bit less of a "bad" than a strike out?

I'm sure more intelligent minds than mine have thought about this question...hopefully someone can fill me in and set me straight on this.

Thanks!

[ochre]

For the most part an out is an out. It is especially true for a guy like Dunn that gets on base regularly (i.e. doesn't make an out). For people with lower OBP strikeouts can be a sign of futility, or an otherwise bad approach at the plate.

One of the things that interests me as a snapshot statistic is an individuals difference between OBP and BA.

[westofyou]

Best fielders in the world, plus the slider have made K's less and less horrendous over the years.

The Best fielders get to 70% of the balls hit and the slider makes the hitter have to wait an extra micro-second or make a decision on a ball that will end up out of the zone.

Here's some more on it.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2617

http://thediamondangle.com/archive/nov03/kfile.html

[flyer85]

Batters Ks were are listed by Bill James as one of the least meaingful offensive stats. In the bottom 8 out of 32.

[BCubb2003]

And yet pitchers' Ks are among the most meaningful stats. It's the same K. And I've never been able to reconcile that.

[Red_BlueDevil]

WOY -- I knew somebody would come through. The baseball prospectus link was especially helpful. Being someone who has become quite comfortable with STATA over the past few years, a multivariate regression analysis is a great persuader.

Flyer, I wasn't trying to suggest that number of Ks are a meaningful stat. Quite the contrary actually - I agree with James, of all the individual statistics out there, #Ks is probably close to the bottom in those that will tell you how successful a batter is.

I only meant to mention that, on its face, it seems that a player who Ks 100 times in 100 atbats would have an OBP of .000, while one who hits a grounder to 3rd 100 times in 100 at bats would have an OBP > .000 because of the possibility of an error. If this is true, isn't a K slightly (albeit VERY slightly) "worse" than a ground out?

[ochre]

and of course putting the ball in play could put you at the bottom of this list:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...tters2004.html

[Johnny Footstool]

There was a tiny blurb in "Moneyball" about strikeouts actually being worse than most SABR-folks think. The thing is, it's a tradeoff. Adam Dunn strikes out more than anyone, but he also produces a ton of runs. You can live with 150 strikeouts if a guy produces like Dunn, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, etc.

[westofyou]

You can live with 150 strikeouts if a guy produces like Dunn, Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson, etc.

But if they're Wes Helms circa 2003 or Cory Snyder 1993 run.

[Tom Lawless Fan]

Adam Dunn doesn't belong on any list with jackson and Tomey. Those guys are great players but Dunn is just a young raw player that needs alot of work.

Those guys never struck out as much as dunn last year.

[M2]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

And yet pitchers' Ks are among the most meaningful stats. It's the same K. And I've never been able to reconcile that.

Mathematically speaking, a strikeout for a pitcher and that same strikeout for a hitter are discrete events. What makes a K good for a pitcher is that it's signpost statistic. Pitchers who rack up the Ks generally keep hitters off the basepaths and generally enjoy longer, more successful careers. An individual strikeout doesn't mean that much. A pitcher would be just as happy with a popout, a weak liner or an at-em grounder in the same situation.

Yet there's no connection between lots of Ks for a hitter and the inability to get on base or to have a long, successful career. In fact there's tons of examples of hitters who whiffed a ton yet had excellent OB skills and some of the longest, most successful careers ever. I spent my youth watching Mike Schmidt (and watching Philly fans, the worst fans in baseball, freak out everytime he K'd). For the hitter, an out's an out. It's what he does when he's not making outs that defines his quality.

[wheels]

That's the best explaination I think I've ever read.

[PressBox]

This is a good discussion and a fun question to consider: "the hierarchy of outs"

I'll tell you the out play that infuriates me more than anything is a weak popout - especially the ones to the catcher, first baseman, or third baseman in foul territory. I think a popout is worse than a strikeout - mainly just because I feel like feeling this way.

At least in certain situations, a ground out, fly out, etc. can enable a runner to advance or even score. Such advances are an invaluabe asset to a team, and one which the Reds have woefully struggled with in recent years. I would happily take my chance with a lineup full of guys who can put the bat the ball consistently. So in answer to the question, I think that a popout is worse than a strikeout is worse than any other out. That's just my way of looking at it.

I like Adam Dunn, don't get me wrong - but I do get frustrated in several at-bats when he doesn't cut down on his swing or try to go the other way. Although he creates a lot of runs for the team, he has the potential to create(or set up) many, many more. But I'll take every one of his strikeouts with the production he puts up. I really like what M2 says: "For the hitter, an out's an out. It's what he does when he's not making outs that defines his quality."

[M2]

Originally Posted by PressBox

I'll tell you the out play that infuriates me more than anything is a weak popout.

Me too. It's all psychological. Thing with a popout is you know you're out long before anyone catches the ball. It's the out that lingers, the one that gives you enough time to contemplate everything you did wrong and the opportunity you just blew.

[Raisor]

Just a note on Dunn.

152 of his 195 strike outs took place with either no one on base (thus no way to advance a runner) or with runners on but with 2 outs (also, no way to advance a runner).

At least 78% of his K's meant nothing more then a "regular" out.