Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by wheels

161-1

I got $50 that says the one loss is to Oswalt

[KronoRed]

Are you kidding?

It'll be to Jimmy Anderson

[CincyRedsFan30]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

Are you kidding?

It'll be to Jimmy Anderson

Well, we know it will be to a soft-tossing LHP.

[paintmered]

Opposing teams will figure out that having lefties pitch underhand is the key to success against the reds.

I really wish I could see the rose color. I really do. But....

76-86

The reds will be leading the central at the end of May, 12 games over .500........but will tank as soon as the humidity hits in June.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo

Out of sincere curiosity, are those determining their record prediction on Pythag expecting the Reds to perform at, below or above like they did last year. It is one thing to say Pythag predicts about a 76-86 record, another thing to say that Pythag is not precise, there IS a margin of error, and the Reds have outperformed it in the past... precedents out the wazoo!

At.

Beating the house as many times as the Reds have the past three years (3, 6, 9 games above) is great. But the house ain't gonna lose every hand.

[Cedric]

Steel- Serious question because I'm not fully aware of the Pythag theory. Is it possible that the structure of the Reds ballclub makes us better suited to beat the prediction? Like do offensive clubs that score more runs have a bigger error size? I'm trying to make this question sound clear, I hope it is.

[bleedsred]

85-77...8 games over .500 and no playoffs.

[Johnny Footstool]

Steel- Serious question because I'm not fully aware of the Pythag theory. Is it possible that the structure of the Reds ballclub makes us better suited to beat the prediction? Like do offensive clubs that score more runs have a bigger error size? I'm trying to make this question sound clear, I hope it is.

I've heard that a strong back-end of the bullpen can help a team beat Pythagorian projections. Logically, it seems to make sense -- your SPs and swingmen can get bombed in blowout losses that decimate your run differential, but your setup men and closers can earn close wins.

Unfortunately, I've never seen any evidence to prove or disprove that theory.

BTW - my prediction is 81-81. 10 games over .500 through May, then the June Swoon hits as teams start seeing Wilson, Ortiz, and Harang for the second or third time.

[MWM]

What do win for predeicing the worst record?

[paintmered]

Originally Posted by MWM

What do win for predeicing the worst record?

Pessimist of the year

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by MWM

What do win for predeicing the worst record?

The Courage Award?

The Bravest Realist Award?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by MWM

What do win for predeicing the worst record?

A dictionary.

[traderumor]

Don't worry, MWM, just like the Olympics, we throw out the highest and lowest score...

which brings me to another potential award...The Russian Judge Award

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by chris Napier

102-60

While we're handing out awards for the predictions, I give this one the "When Harry met Sally" Award, as in "I'll have some of what she's having..."

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by seven and chang

Oh Pyth, it's just a theory. Reds grab Tim Redding on waivers at the end of spring training. The light finally goes on in his head. Cincinnati laughs all the way to the bank depositing a 92-70 season and collecting a receipt for one brand spanking new 2005 Central division title.

And the "Shattered Dreams on my Honeymoon" Award for the first prediction to go down
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32862