Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... - Page 8 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

SteelSD · 03-28-2005, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo

Perhaps Steel it has more to do with blowout wins/losses in addition to one run wins to distort the run differential. (Or even better, one run wins with extra emphasis on those won in last at bat. Walk off wins are the sign of a team who has to scrap to win, but doesn't really "deserve" the win. I know statistically it can not directly affect Pecota, it still might be an interesting corollary.)

Dunno, man. If we think it has anything to do with a combination of one-run and blowout Win %, we might be wrong as well...

2004 Reds: 25-20 W/L One-Run, 11-35 W/L "Blowout"
2004 Yankees: 24-16 W/L One-Run, 27-28 W/L "Blowout"

BTW, I still refuse to believe that losing by five Runs is a true "Blowout" scenario, but that's what baseballreference.com uses to define it so that's what we get.

The "Blowout" record is significantly different. The Reds were horrid in games decided by 5 or more Runs but the Yankees were a virtual 50/50 proposition. That's not enough to "tilt" the Run Differential against the Yanks unless they were losing by incredible amounts (15+ Runs) when they were on the losing end of those "Blowout" losses. But they lost only two games by more than 9 Runs (11 and 22 <ouchie>). And they were just as likely to knock the crud out of the opponent as they were to lose by 9 or less.

So...dunno.

Raisor · 03-28-2005, 08:17 PM

I haven't looked at anyone else's predictions so as to not be influeneced.

75-87

Pitching just isn't there.

jmcclain19 · 03-28-2005, 08:18 PM

I'll say 77-85, and it will be a monster mountain of bad pitching and injuries to climb over to reach that plateau.

Reds Nd2 · 03-28-2005, 08:53 PM

76 to 80 Wins

RedFanAlways1966 · 03-28-2005, 09:32 PM

72-90

Hope I'm wrong!

WebScorpion · 03-28-2005, 10:18 PM

I guess this is the post Spring Training predicition, because we already did one of these in February. First 2005 prediciton thread
Anyway, I got the seer out to the park again and this time she tossed some bones down on home plate and read them. She's sticking with the 92-70 prediction with a Wild Card playoff spot.
REDZ RAWK!!

Tommyjohn25 · 03-28-2005, 10:19 PM

86-76.

gonelong · 03-28-2005, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WebScorpion

I guess this is the post Spring Training predicition, because we already did one of these in February. First 2005 prediciton thread

Bah! There can be only one!

I plan to aggregate the predictions in this thread with the predictions from the last 3 years and run a few calculations on them and post the results. IIRC, alloverjr has been spot on all three seasons.

GL

StillFunkyB · 03-28-2005, 10:42 PM

90 wins if everyone stays relatively healthy.

76 wins if players are spending time with Doc Hollywood.

tbball10 · 03-28-2005, 11:01 PM

91-71

IslandRed · 03-28-2005, 11:55 PM

I'm less optimistic than I was in the earlier thread, not sure why... 79-83.

alloverjr · 03-29-2005, 12:04 AM

75 - 87

And this is only Milton's first year.

paintmered · 03-29-2005, 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Leader

If Graves gets 48 saves this year, I'll get a portrait of him tattoed on my back that says "dANNy rAwKs, gO rEDS" under it, mullett and all. :MandJ:

You wrote it. We can make you live up to it :mhcky21:

SERPs Unite!!

westofyou · 03-29-2005, 05:33 PM

Hey, can we get a sticky on this until OD?

PECOTA on the Reds

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3877

Reds 76 86 .472 789 836

Puffy · 03-29-2005, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsfanmia

90-72 and Joe Randa makes the all-star team.

If the Reds win 90 games AND Joe Randa makes the all-star team I will get a giant tattoo on my back with Danny Graves picture that says "Nobody Scores on Danny Graves" - - mullet and all.

03-28-2005, 08:17 PM	#107
Raisor Member Join Date: Jun 2001 Posts: 12,684	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... I haven't looked at anyone else's predictions so as to not be influeneced. 75-87 Pitching just isn't there. __________________ "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

03-28-2005, 08:18 PM	#108
jmcclain19 Smells Like Teen Spirit Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Phoenix Posts: 6,486	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... I'll say 77-85, and it will be a monster mountain of bad pitching and injuries to climb over to reach that plateau.

03-28-2005, 08:53 PM	#109
Reds Nd2 Little Reds BandWagon Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 3,244	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 76 to 80 Wins __________________ "...You just have a wider lens than one game." --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game. "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom." --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

03-28-2005, 09:32 PM	#110
RedFanAlways1966 For a Level Playing Field Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Oakwood, OH Posts: 11,246	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 72-90 Hope I'm wrong! __________________ Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

03-28-2005, 10:18 PM	#111
WebScorpion SERP deep cover ops Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: In the Ether Posts: 5,363	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... I guess this is the post Spring Training predicition, because we already did one of these in February. First 2005 prediciton thread Anyway, I got the seer out to the park again and this time she tossed some bones down on home plate and read them. She's sticking with the 92-70 prediction with a Wild Card playoff spot. REDZ RAWK!! __________________ "It doesn't get any better than this," --Marty Brennaman

03-28-2005, 10:19 PM	#112
Tommyjohn25 Moderator Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Fairborn, OH Posts: 1,840	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 86-76. __________________ Benzinger backing and calling! And the 1990 world championship series belongs to the Cincinnati Reds!

03-28-2005, 10:42 PM	#114
StillFunkyB Your killin' me Smalls! Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Florence, KY Posts: 3,098	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 90 wins if everyone stays relatively healthy. 76 wins if players are spending time with Doc Hollywood.

03-28-2005, 11:01 PM	#115
tbball10 Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Cumming, GA Posts: 616	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 91-71

03-28-2005, 11:55 PM	#116
IslandRed Charlie Brown All-Star Join Date: May 2001 Location: Mt. Juliet, TN Posts: 4,676	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... I'm less optimistic than I was in the earlier thread, not sure why... 79-83.

03-29-2005, 12:04 AM	#117
alloverjr getting younger Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Valley of the Sun Posts: 1,160	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 75 - 87 And this is only Milton's first year. __________________ Just have to tip your cap tonight...

03-29-2005, 05:33 PM	#119
westofyou breath Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: PDX Posts: 39,384	Re: Gonelong's 4th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... Hey, can we get a sticky on this until OD? PECOTA on the Reds http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3877 Reds 76 86 .472 789 836

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