Surprise player of the year

[Reds1]

Surprise - Reistma

Disappointment - LaRue

[gonelong]

I gotta agree with M2 here, look for Larue to show some suprising offense.

I think Casey and Jr will both rebound to some degree, so no suprise there. Kearns and Dunn will do well, no suprise there.

I think that the big suprise to the upside will be from Acevado. I think he was dimissed too early by most. He has decent enough stuff and will be able to be a servable pitcher next year. If Harnish can to anything, he is #2 on this list IMO.

GL

[ForLoveOfTheGame]

My pick for the biggest suprise of the season is Sean Casey. I think most people expect him to rebound from last season's injury marred campaign, but I feel Casey is ready to not only match his '99 numbers, but to surpass them in 2003. Casey plays with a lot of pride, and I really feel that he will have a great season in an attempt to justify Bowden's faith in him over all these years. My prediction for Casey this year is .325 30hr and 110 rbi. Those numbers are not far off his numbers in '99, and are within reach of a healthy Casey who is entering his prime.

My suprise pitcher of the year has got to be Danny Graves. Most people project him as a solid #3 guy with a ceiling of a #2. In my book, Graves has the stuff and pitching savy of a legit #1. My prediction for him in 2003 is 18-6 3.45 era, while pitching over 200 innings.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally posted by ForLoveOfTheGame
My suprise pitcher of the year has got to be Danny Graves. Most people project him as a solid #3 guy with a ceiling of a #2. In my book, Graves has the stuff and pitching savy of a legit #1. My prediction for him in 2003 is 18-6 3.45 era, while pitching over 200 innings.

That wouldn't be a surprise to Redszoners.

[MikeS21]

Old Red Guard wrote:

I just don't understand the pessimism Mike and Red Leader have about Graves. Maybe they've been watching a different pitcher than I have, maybe they just don't want to get their hopes too high, but I've said for a couple of years, along with others on here, that Graves is perfectly cast for the starting rotation. Personally I expect a solid season - 14-16 wins for Danny and an era below 3.50.

ORG, I can't speak for Red Leader, but I have heard all these comparisons to Derrick Lowe - reliever turned starter, and frankly, I just don't see it.

Lowe is the exception rather than the rule and I see no basis for thinking that just because Lowe had a career yerar, that Graves will become the Reds' #1 ace for the next five seasons. I agree Graves is not a closer. I never once pretended he was a closer. But the comparisons to Derreck Lowe are rather far-fetched. To me, the comparisons between the two have as much logic as if a fellow RedsZoner won the lottery, then I think that because I'm a RedsZoner, I will win the lottery, too.

As for the 200+ innings ForLoveOfTheGame predicts, that's quite a feat for a guy who HAS NEVER pitched more than 112 innings in a single season. And he has only had ONE season where he broke 99 innings (and only TWO seasons where's he'd broke 92 innings). I know Graves is supposedly "conditioning" himself, but come on, the guy is 29 years old and at most he will be a six inning pitcher, which is all we need - another bullpen dependent starter. The guy made $3.5 million in 2002, and will probably be in the $4.8-$5.2 million range for 2003. Thta's a lot for a #4 or #5 pitcher. I don't know about you all, but when I think of a #1 ace, I think of a guy who will have 200+ K's and pitch 3 CG's. That certainly is not Graves.

And that leads me to my last point on Graves. IMHO, I think he'll be on the DL with arm trouble. If he's making the tranistion to starter as a 22 year old, that's one thing. but at 29-30 years old, that could be a problem. 30 years old isn't necessarily old, but in baseball terms, it sure isn't young. And if he tweaks his arm one time, and even misses one start, it will raise red flags as far as any trade value Graves will have come July.

I realize many on this board are high on Graves a s a starter. I'm just not one of them. But if I'm wrong, and Graves wins the Cy Young Award for 2003, I won't complain about it.

[creek14]

Originally posted by MikeS21

But if I'm wrong, and Graves wins the Cy Young Award for 2003, I won't complain about it.

Ah, come on Mike, how about a little "first born" wager...

[MattyHo4Life]

Graves MAY do well as a starter, but after only starting 4 games in his career... it's a little pre-mature to be expecting a CY-Young caliber season from him.

[M2]

I don't know about Graves being a Cy Young candidate, but I expect 190+ innings and a 3.40 ERA from the guy. He could be better, but I'm guessing he won't be much worse than that (mainly because he's consistent with his stuff).

[letsgojunior]

Based on last year's numbers, if Graves can perform somewhere around M2's prediction, he will be the best pitcher on our starting staff provided we don't add a big name.

The big key next year is Dempster. An ERA of 5.5 and a WHIP of around 1.5 just aren't acceptable.

[bthomasiscool]

there is no way graves will be a six inning pitcher dependent on the bullpen........graves is a sinkerball pitcher who can easily get guys out on 3-4 pitches per batter....

[MikeS21]

Originally posted by creek14

Ah, come on Mike, how about a little "first born" wager...

creek, if you did win MY first born in a friendly wager, you'd probably send her back home within an hour. My first born is 11, thinks she's 15, at times, acts like she's 6. She is boy crazy, loves the malls, thinks of me as a human ATM machine, and her favorite clothing color is BLACK. In short, she is a typical 5th grader - sass and all.

So you see, if I "lose" a 'first born" wager, I actually "win." :evilgrin:

Anyway, it's good to see I woke up the crowd with my anti-Graves remarks.

Surprise - Scott Randall

After a stellar 12-0 3.25 PCL year, he makes the rotation out of camp and goes 12-8 3.75

[SirFelixCat]

Originally posted by OldTwinsFan
Surprise - Scott Randall

After a stellar 12-0 3.25 PCL year, he makes the rotation out of camp and goes 12-8 3.75

Now that would be a surprise...I'll pay homage to you if this come to pass. I hope you're right

Surprise - Acevado. I thought he showed some character last year by responding to a 'sudden' demotion with a very solid AAA season. Success at every minor league level, he may be as good or better than some of the more experienced FAs that people wanted us to sign, like Brian Anderson.

Surprise 2 - Scott Williamson as a starter. A WILD guess here, but his experience as a closer will be shaky at best and with holes in the rotation, Willy will push Gully to let him start. They'll move Willy to the rotation by July. Like 2000 he'll impress as a starter.

Disappointment - Haynes would be an obvious choice, but most of us expect so little of him to begin with that it's hard to label him a disappointment. So, Scott Williamson as a closer. He certainly has the stuff, but something tells me it'll be a thrill a minute with him as closer. His control will cost us several games in the early months, leading to a closer by committee. Willy moves to the rotation for the second half.

[RedLex]

Biggest surprise...Ryan Dempster, Sean Casey

Biggest disappointment...Jimmy Haynes, Austin Kearns