Surprise player of the year - Page 2 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

TeamCasey · 01-03-2003, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MikeS21
Surprise will be a rejuvinated and healthy Sean Casey. I'll predict a .310-.320 BA, 20-25 HR's, and 85 RBI's. Disappointment will be the "Danny Graves as a starter" experiment. As Red Leader said, you'll get about five good starts out of him, but by the All-Star break, Graves will be back in the bullpen with trade value around the Juan Castro level.

Hate to be biased, but ditto.

I'll add Russell Branyan to the list for pleasant surprises as well.

RFS62 · 01-03-2003, 03:45 PM

Time to rev up the Idiotmobile.

One of the main reasons that scouts are interested in a players "makeup" is the near certainty that a player will be faced with adversity many times in his career.

How you respond to that adversity can differ greatly among players, and for that matter, individuals in all walks of life.

I pick Sean Casey for surprise of the year.

It may well be that his makeup hurt him while he was injured. He struggled to play through not just pain, but injury. I'm betting that he comes back more fit and more determined than ever to prove his detractors wrong.

ramp101 · 01-03-2003, 03:59 PM

rila great post, i needed a "holy crap what has he/she been smokin?"

reds surprise of the year....... THE KID

disappointment of the year........... Sean Casey

GAC · 01-03-2003, 04:00 PM

If Jr returns to form (and I think he will), would that qualify?... or would that be listed as "Comeback Player of 2003"?

But if I can't list Jr, then I will go with Austin Kearns. He is the real thing IMO.

Close your eyes and imagine that scene from the Wizard of Oz where the Cowardly Lion is chanting the mantra.... "I do believe...I do believe.... I do...I do...I do believe"

SirFelixCat · 01-03-2003, 04:07 PM

Put me down as 2 "locks" as big surprises this year:

#1- Jr. will come back to form. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the year Jr. will show everyone why he is one of the Century's greatest players. NO ONE outside of this board expects/hopes he'll comeback strong so I'll include him on the "surprise" list.

#2- Provided he rests this month, Acevedo will breakout this year. All indications are that he will. He has done nothing but improve since his last stint with the team. My only fear are all those innings he used to improve himself coming back to hurt him. But if he stays healthy, I'm predicting 12-14 wins for the kid!

GO REDS!!!

gm · 01-03-2003, 04:15 PM

Harnisch

(BTW...do you believe in "spooks" GAC?)

Wizard of Oz trivia: what dance scene was left out of the movie?
(Hint: it was popular at the time. I'm not referring to the part of the Scarecrow's scamper that wound up on the cutting room floor)

Redsfaithful · 01-03-2003, 04:32 PM

Surprise: Lopez will have 15 - 20 Home Runs. Casey will be hit well over .300. Dunn will hit 45+ Home runs. So will Jr. Graves will win 18. (The guy's known since last September he's going to be a starter. Do none of you think he's been conditioning for the job?)

Disappointment: Brandon Larson is going to have a hard time. That's the only guy I'm really down on heading into this year. I really don't think anything I wrote up top is completely unexpected either, all those numbers are where people should be at this point.

Rojo · 01-03-2003, 04:36 PM

The Jitterbug.

gm · 01-03-2003, 05:40 PM

"The Jitterbug."

That's right. This is why the witch tells the flying monkey "they'll give you no trouble...I've sent a little INSECT..." The editors took the dance out, but left that line unchanged

TeamCasey · 01-03-2003, 06:01 PM

We'll need to archive this or have a 2003 predictions forum.

Greenhills Pioneer · 01-03-2003, 06:55 PM

Surprises:

Griffey: 70 HR! .300 BA, .390 OBP, 140 RBI. Anyone remember before McGwire broke the single season HR record everyone thought Griffey, McGwire and Bonds were the three thought most likely to have a chance to break it? And remember that Griffey was the one most thought had the best chance?

Mateo: Somehow, someway, he gets an opportunity to play everyday at some point and hits .320 with 24 HR and steals 15 in only 400AB displaying his superior eye/hand coordination and bat speed along with his other tools.

Dempster: He gets back on track and is the Reds best starter. He K's 200 with a 3.45 ERA while averaging 7 innings per start and leads the team in CG.

Larson: He shocks people by hitting .290 with 35 HR and 100 RBI giving the Reds a middle of the lineup type bat at the bottom of the order.

Graves: He becomes the team's #2 starter and workhorse by averaging 7.5 innings per start and putting up a 3.71 ERA and wins 16 games.

Reitsma: Becomes the team's closer when Williamson struggles with consistency early on. People realize he has a 95 MPH fastball since he doesn't have to pace himself like he did as a starter and his K rates jump to near one K per inning. He combines that with his Hoffman-esque changeup and solid curveball to become an elite allstar closer in the Gagne/Smoltz/Baez mold(with a lesser fastball of course). He, along with Gagne, Smoltz and Baez, helps redefine the closer role like Vick, McNabb and Culpepper have to the QB position in football.

Disappointments:

Reggie Taylor: He falls in love with the short RF porch so much that he becomes even more determined to try to pull everything in the air out of the park. As a result, his BA plummets and the team realizes that Mateo is by far the better player. His stats might be something like this .245 BA, .260 OBP, 4 HR and 10 SB in 150 AB.

Lopez: He shows glimpses of brilliance, both offensively and defensively, but it becomes obvious that he is not yet the player he will become. He shows how raw he still is by hitting .220 with 7 HR, 10 SB and 20 BB in 400 AB.

Haynes: He proves to everyone how average he really is by putting up a 4.90 ERA and losing 15.

LaRue: Even while being one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, his hitting doesn't improve at all. His .240 BA and 15 HR will be masked by the fact that he becomes a pure pull hitter and pretty much an automatic out most of the time and will be undependable with runners in scoring position.

cincinnati chili · 01-03-2003, 07:05 PM

Surprise: Sean Casey
Disappointment: Aaron Boone

Old Red Guard · 01-03-2003, 08:03 PM

I can't list Junior or Casey as surprises because that isn't true - there isn't a sportswriter around or a baseball exec who would be surprised by the reemergence of either. There may be doubters but I don't put either player in realm of surprising if they would have a good season. Larson likewise might have a great year but would that really be surprising given he's a first rounder who tore up AAA and showed well in a brief ML stint last year? To me a surprise is a player coming from nowhere or from a history of mediocrity to become a major player at least for a season. My pick is Juan Acevedo as the surprise of the year.

I just don't understand the pessimism Mike and Red Leader have about Graves. Maybe they've been watching a different pitcher than I have, maybe they just don't want to get their hopes too high, but I've said for a couple of years, along with others on here, that Graves is perfectly cast for the starting rotation. Personally I expect a solid season - 14-16 wins for Danny and an era below 3.50. The disappointment that I suspect will be Ryan Dempster - I know he has talent but I'm not sold on him. Hope I'm wrong but he's my pick for the belly flop of the summer.

MattyHo4Life · 01-03-2003, 08:08 PM

Surprise: Austin Kearns (any chance you guys will trade him to the Cards?)

Disapointment: Ryan Dempster

MattyHo4Life · 01-03-2003, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Old Red Guard
I can't list Junior or Casey as surprises because that isn't true - there isn't a sportswriter around or a baseball exec who would be surprised by the reemergence of either. There may be doubters but I don't put either player in realm of surprising if they would have a good season.

If Griffey or Casey have great seasons...that would be surprising, because nobody really thinks they will. Yeah...it's true that everybody knows that they are capable of having great seasons, but they also know that about JD Drew. Would you be suprised if JD Drew hit 40 homers? I would, but I know he's capable of it. If baseball execs truly thought that Griffey would have a breakout year...then they would be scrambling to trade for him. Do you think Bowden expects Griffey to have a breakout year? If he did....why would he even consider trading him? He wouldn't. The same thing goes for Casey. Just because you know a player is capable of greatness, and has even shown greatness in the past....doesn't mean you wouldn't be surprised if that greatness returns. I think the baseball world has all but given up on Griffey. Although.... that doesn't mean he can't surprise them.

01-03-2003, 03:45 PM	#17
RFS62 Hey Cubs Fans Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: New York Posts: 16,567	Time to rev up the Idiotmobile. One of the main reasons that scouts are interested in a players "makeup" is the near certainty that a player will be faced with adversity many times in his career. How you respond to that adversity can differ greatly among players, and for that matter, individuals in all walks of life. I pick Sean Casey for surprise of the year. It may well be that his makeup hurt him while he was injured. He struggled to play through not just pain, but injury. I'm betting that he comes back more fit and more determined than ever to prove his detractors wrong. __________________ "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." ~ Mark Twain

01-03-2003, 03:59 PM	#18
ramp101 ShadezNation Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Gotham City Posts: 2,718	rila great post, i needed a "holy crap what has he/she been smokin?" reds surprise of the year....... THE KID disappointment of the year........... Sean Casey __________________ woo woo woo, you know it

01-03-2003, 04:07 PM	#20
SirFelixCat Member Join Date: May 2002 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 5,674	Put me down as 2 "locks" as big surprises this year: #1- Jr. will come back to form. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the year Jr. will show everyone why he is one of the Century's greatest players. NO ONE outside of this board expects/hopes he'll comeback strong so I'll include him on the "surprise" list. #2- Provided he rests this month, Acevedo will breakout this year. All indications are that he will. He has done nothing but improve since his last stint with the team. My only fear are all those innings he used to improve himself coming back to hurt him. But if he stays healthy, I'm predicting 12-14 wins for the kid! GO REDS!!! __________________ Resident Poker Pro

01-03-2003, 04:15 PM	#21
gm All dyslexics must untie! Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: SW Portland, OR Posts: 8,604	Harnisch (BTW...do you believe in "spooks" GAC?) Wizard of Oz trivia: what dance scene was left out of the movie? (Hint: it was popular at the time. I'm not referring to the part of the Scarecrow's scamper that wound up on the cutting room floor) __________________ Never overlook the obvious Last edited by gm; 01-03-2003 at 04:23 PM.

01-03-2003, 04:32 PM	#22
Redsfaithful A Little to the Left Join Date: May 2002 Location: Bexley, OH Posts: 7,417	Surprise: Lopez will have 15 - 20 Home Runs. Casey will be hit well over .300. Dunn will hit 45+ Home runs. So will Jr. Graves will win 18. (The guy's known since last September he's going to be a starter. Do none of you think he's been conditioning for the job?) Disappointment: Brandon Larson is going to have a hard time. That's the only guy I'm really down on heading into this year. I really don't think anything I wrote up top is completely unexpected either, all those numbers are where people should be at this point. __________________ We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

01-03-2003, 04:00 PM	#19
GAC What Me Worry? Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Bellefontaine, Ohio Posts: 26,416	If Jr returns to form (and I think he will), would that qualify?... or would that be listed as "Comeback Player of 2003"? But if I can't list Jr, then I will go with Austin Kearns. He is the real thing IMO. Close your eyes and imagine that scene from the Wizard of Oz where the Cowardly Lion is chanting the mantra.... "I do believe...I do believe.... I do...I do...I do believe"

01-03-2003, 04:36 PM	#23
Rojo Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: The Bush Leagues Posts: 8,423	The Jitterbug.

01-03-2003, 05:40 PM	#24
gm All dyslexics must untie! Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: SW Portland, OR Posts: 8,604	"The Jitterbug." That's right. This is why the witch tells the flying monkey "they'll give you no trouble...I've sent a little INSECT..." The editors took the dance out, but left that line unchanged __________________ Never overlook the obvious

01-03-2003, 06:01 PM	#25
TeamCasey Member Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: TeamBoone's Attic Posts: 12,317	We'll need to archive this or have a 2003 predictions forum.

01-03-2003, 06:55 PM	#26
Greenhills Pioneer Member Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Hamiltucky Posts: 1,403	Surprises: Griffey: 70 HR! .300 BA, .390 OBP, 140 RBI. Anyone remember before McGwire broke the single season HR record everyone thought Griffey, McGwire and Bonds were the three thought most likely to have a chance to break it? And remember that Griffey was the one most thought had the best chance? Mateo: Somehow, someway, he gets an opportunity to play everyday at some point and hits .320 with 24 HR and steals 15 in only 400AB displaying his superior eye/hand coordination and bat speed along with his other tools. Dempster: He gets back on track and is the Reds best starter. He K's 200 with a 3.45 ERA while averaging 7 innings per start and leads the team in CG. Larson: He shocks people by hitting .290 with 35 HR and 100 RBI giving the Reds a middle of the lineup type bat at the bottom of the order. Graves: He becomes the team's #2 starter and workhorse by averaging 7.5 innings per start and putting up a 3.71 ERA and wins 16 games. Reitsma: Becomes the team's closer when Williamson struggles with consistency early on. People realize he has a 95 MPH fastball since he doesn't have to pace himself like he did as a starter and his K rates jump to near one K per inning. He combines that with his Hoffman-esque changeup and solid curveball to become an elite allstar closer in the Gagne/Smoltz/Baez mold(with a lesser fastball of course). He, along with Gagne, Smoltz and Baez, helps redefine the closer role like Vick, McNabb and Culpepper have to the QB position in football. Disappointments: Reggie Taylor: He falls in love with the short RF porch so much that he becomes even more determined to try to pull everything in the air out of the park. As a result, his BA plummets and the team realizes that Mateo is by far the better player. His stats might be something like this .245 BA, .260 OBP, 4 HR and 10 SB in 150 AB. Lopez: He shows glimpses of brilliance, both offensively and defensively, but it becomes obvious that he is not yet the player he will become. He shows how raw he still is by hitting .220 with 7 HR, 10 SB and 20 BB in 400 AB. Haynes: He proves to everyone how average he really is by putting up a 4.90 ERA and losing 15. LaRue: Even while being one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, his hitting doesn't improve at all. His .240 BA and 15 HR will be masked by the fact that he becomes a pure pull hitter and pretty much an automatic out most of the time and will be undependable with runners in scoring position.

01-03-2003, 07:05 PM	#27
cincinnati chili post hype sleeper Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Denver Posts: 10,351	Surprise: Sean Casey Disappointment: Aaron Boone __________________ On Dasher On Dancer On Prancer Ondrusek

01-03-2003, 08:03 PM	#28
Old Red Guard Member Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Saint Joseph, Mo Posts: 601	I can't list Junior or Casey as surprises because that isn't true - there isn't a sportswriter around or a baseball exec who would be surprised by the reemergence of either. There may be doubters but I don't put either player in realm of surprising if they would have a good season. Larson likewise might have a great year but would that really be surprising given he's a first rounder who tore up AAA and showed well in a brief ML stint last year? To me a surprise is a player coming from nowhere or from a history of mediocrity to become a major player at least for a season. My pick is Juan Acevedo as the surprise of the year. I just don't understand the pessimism Mike and Red Leader have about Graves. Maybe they've been watching a different pitcher than I have, maybe they just don't want to get their hopes too high, but I've said for a couple of years, along with others on here, that Graves is perfectly cast for the starting rotation. Personally I expect a solid season - 14-16 wins for Danny and an era below 3.50. The disappointment that I suspect will be Ryan Dempster - I know he has talent but I'm not sold on him. Hope I'm wrong but he's my pick for the belly flop of the summer.

01-03-2003, 08:08 PM	#29
MattyHo4Life Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: St. Louis Posts: 3,340	Surprise: Austin Kearns (any chance you guys will trade him to the Cards?) Disapointment: Ryan Dempster

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