BP: Reds Transaction Analysis-Wily Mo Pena, Ross etc.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

If the Reds can recoup Pena's offensive value somewhere else to negate the presence of Scott Hatteberg being his de facto offensive replacement, Arroyo would need to be worth at least 50 Runs more than the rotation option he's replacing to be worth 5 additional Wins.

Over 200 Innigns, 50 Runs is the about the difference between a 5.00 ERA and a 2.80 ERA. Yikes.

5 wins is a pipe dream, sure. It assumes the Reds get lucky and beat Pythagoras, and that Arroyo pitches to the absolute pinnacle of his ability (say 210 IPs with an ERA of 3.50). I think a performace like that and the ripple effect through the bullpen could potentially result in a 5 win increase. Of course, there's only about a 1% chance of that happening...

In the long run, 5 wins is the difference between finishing at 77-85 vs. 72-90, but in the course of a season, 5 wins is the difference (potentially) between being 3 games back from the Wild Card in July (and still, theoretically, in contention) and being 8 games back from the Wild Card in July and firmly in the losers bracket.

That's 5 wins max, spread out over the course of the season. We're talking 1 win a month. And that's a big maybe.

It's not going to matter.