Goldstein talks about Homer

[rdiersin]

Not too much, but in the Monday Morning Ten Pack this was said

RHP Homer Bailey, High-A Sarasota (Reds)

When the Reds drafted Bailey with the seventh overall pick in 2004, scouts saw him as a Josh Beckett clone--a big Texas righthander with blistering heat and a knee-buckling curveball. He's been dominating at times, and frustratingly inconsistent, but no more so than over the past four starts. In two of those outings, Bailey has fired six hitless innings, recording 11 strikeouts in one outing, and nine in the other. In the other two starts, Bailey gave up 11 runs in eight innings, including six over 2.2 on Saturday against St. Lucie. In the past, Bailey has gotten a reputation as someone who doesn't necessarily love baseball as much as he is exceedingly good at it. Nobody can really know just how much Bailey wants it, but that kind of reputation could stick around if his game-to-game performance continues to fluctuate like a mid-90s tech stock.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5079

[dougdirt]

I love how he forgets to mention of those 6 runs he allowed in his last outing, just 1 was earned thanks to some errors. His ERA stayed exactly the same before and after the game. 3.35

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I love how he forgets to mention of those 6 runs he allowed in his last outing, just 1 was earned thanks to some errors. His ERA stayed exactly the same before and after the game. 3.35

You're right they were unearned, but he didn't pitch well by any stretch of the imagination. He did give up 3 walks and hit 2 batters and faced 18 batters in 2 and 1/3 innings. Also, that was one error and he gave up 5 unearned runs. Not sure why he should get a complete pass on that.

[dougdirt]

Becuase he should have been out of the inning. That is why they go down as unearned runs. Everything after that error changes. How you pitch, what pitch you throw, runners on base, a million different things change.

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Becuase he should have been out of the inning. That is why they go down as unearned runs. Everything after that error changes. How you pitch, what pitch you throw, runners on base, a million different things change.

I know WHY they go down as unearned runs. But I don't think you can say that he had a good game (and hence the complete pass). He still pitched poorly after the error. That's part of pitching, errors happen, maybe he learns from this, I hope so.

Don't get me wrong, the fact that he gave up 6 runs shouldn't be pointed to to demonstrate that he sucks, but by the same token it shouldn't be used as a total excuse of his performance. It does lead to the concerns about his inconsistency, but not one of the more fundamental ones. It will be interesting to see as the year goes on. I think he's going to find his consistency, especially if he has another good outing next time out.

[dougdirt]

I am not saying he had a good game. He just didnt have a completely bad one either.

[lollipopcurve]

He just didnt have a completely bad one either.

I think I've been as big a Homer supporter as anyone on this board, but I would say his last game was bad. Several extra base hits, a ton of base runners. Probably his worst game as a pro. Hopefully his arm felt OK.

He's got a ways to go.

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not saying he had a good game. He just didnt have a completely bad one either.

Then I misunderstood your first post and I'm sorry about that.

[Aronchis]

Worst game? Not through the first 2.2 innings. Gave up a run in the 2nd, but that happens(typical get em over, get em in), got the first 2 outs in easy fashion in the 3rd, then the error came........

A con on Bailey coming out of HS, was that his poise was lacking due to playing in such a weak competitive league where finding your grit to get by talented hitters who can match your talent was not available. I think when Bailey has something not go his way, he tends to get emotional over it. While some nights like the start between the no-hitter, he simply didn't seem to have much feel, intially last night he didn't look bad at all, maybe not his best, but that shouldn't stop him from pitching 6 2ER type of night.............to the error. After that he began the typical drifting of his leg on breaking pitches and losing the feel for his change. His command suffered.

The real reason Bailey is in Aball and not in AA has alot to do with poise and maturity. The Reds won't move him up to he shows 5-6 straight starts of command and poise. While he may be the best bet in the long term out of the 04 HS crop to be a stud, he was the biggest baby out of the group and his last start showed that immaturity and the biggest threat to his development.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Worst game? Not through the first 2.2 innings. Gave up a run in the 2nd, but that happens(typical get em over, get em in), got the first 2 outs in easy fashion in the 3rd, then the error came........

A con on Bailey coming out of HS, was that his poise was lacking due to playing in such a weak competitive league where finding your grit to get by talented hitters who can match your talent was not available. I think when Bailey has something not go his way, he tends to get emotional over it. While some nights like the start between the no-hitter, he simply didn't seem to have much feel, intially last night he didn't look bad at all, maybe not his best, but that shouldn't stop him from pitching 6 2ER type of night.............to the error. After that he began the typical drifting of his leg on breaking pitches and losing the feel for his change. His command suffered.

The real reason Bailey is in Aball and not in AA has alot to do with poise and maturity. The Reds won't move him up to he shows 5-6 straight starts of command and poise. While he may be the best bet in the long term out of the 04 HS crop to be a stud, he was the biggest baby out of the group and his last start showed that immaturity and the biggest threat to his development.

Interesting observations - I appreciate the first-person comments. However, I must say that he must at least be more mature than Rafael Gonzalez - who just never showed up for work this spring - don't you think?

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Interesting observations - I appreciate the first-person comments. However, I must say that he must at least be more mature than Rafael Gonzalez - who just never showed up for work this spring - don't you think?

Gonzo's "immaturity" goes beyond the mound.

[Caveat Emperor]

In the past, Bailey has gotten a reputation as someone who doesn't necessarily love baseball as much as he is exceedingly good at it.

This has been a knock on Bailey forever -- where did this reputation come from? Did he mouth off to some BA reporter that he'd rather be hunting than refining his curveball or something?

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

This has been a knock on Bailey forever -- where did this reputation come from? Did he mouth off to some BA reporter that he'd rather be hunting than refining his curveball or something?

There was a BA article about a year ago. I can't remember the specifics, but it was kind of that type of thing and in some ways it seemed to be blown a bit out of proportion. Heck, I'd rather be fishing or golfing than being at my job. Personally from what I've read of him this year I would have to say the opposite. It seems that he wants to get to the big leagues. Now whether that has translated to him caring about refining his pitches is anybody's guess.

Here's the thread with the article in BA.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...seball+america