Tony Cingrani - the next Zach Stewart or the next Cliff Lee?

[holster10]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/fan...ospect-report/

SI basically saying what many were thinking that there's a definitive correlation between cingrani's development as a starter and Chapman's move back to the pen.

[mace]

Well, I wouldn't trade him (unless overwhelmed, of course) because I think his potential is probably greater than his current value. I wouldn't move him to the bullpen until he proves he can't start. And I wouldn't write him into the rotation until the circumstances (his dominance or somebody else's ineffectiveness) demand it. I'd simply keep pitching him and let it develop organically. That might seem like a no-answer answer; but not really.

[PTjvs]

Yes there is. There always has been and there always will be.

Of course there is, in a literal sense. Pitching prospects are incredibly difficult to accurately project though, and career arcs are nowhere near as predictable as with position players. This is a team that can win now. If you can trade low to mid ceiling pitching prospects to make that happen, you do. I suspect you'd do the same.

jvs

[dougdirt]

Of course there is, in a literal sense. Pitching prospects are incredibly difficult to accurately project though, and career arcs are nowhere near as predictable as with position players. This is a team that can win now. If you can trade low to mid ceiling pitching prospects to make that happen, you do. I suspect you'd do the same.

jvs

Things are changing with pitching. Not just in the majors, but in the minors too. Guys used to get hurt and be done for. Now, most guys come back from TJ and half come back from a shoulder issue that used to kill the career of 90% of the guys who dealt with it. That really changes the career arc we look at with pitchers, because those careers didn't have what the guys today have when it comes to medical technology.

Certainly, position guys are still easier to predict, but pitchers are easier than they used to be to figure out because you don't have to worry as much about the injury as you used to.

[Caveat Emperor]

He's a guy that makes scouts earn their money -- if you've got him projected as a bullpen arm, you deal him soon to some team that covets him as a starter. If you've got him projected as a starter, you let him continue to develop to eventually fill out the rotation in the coming years

[mdccclxix]

Such an intriguing prospect. He says as much when he flatly notes that the batters just can't touch his fastball. He's the kind of player you just want to see how far he'll go with his attack.

[Scrap Irony]

I love that both Corcino and Cingrani are nearly ready and in AAA. As a result of their talent, I allow Arroyo to leave and have the duo fight over the fifth starter spot. If another team comes with a legitimate offer, I have seven cheap, likely productive starters (plus Chapman)-- so I'll listen.

Targets would include:
-- Mike Zunino or a similarly talented offensive catcher that can also play the position
-- Trevor Story or a similarly talented offensive SS that can play the position well
-- Wil Myers or a similarly talented LF/ RF masher who profiles as a cleanup bat (bonus for a switch-hitter)
-- as part of a package for Giancarlo Stanton (with either Hamilton or Stephenson, but not both)

If other teams aren't as enamored enough with Cingrani to offer top prospects (or Stanton), I keep him, as I believe he's going to be at least a MOR starter with the upside of dominant TOR ace we've seen so far in his professional career.

[Drugs Delaney]

I would hold unless you are just blown away by an offer. Odds are that at some point this season you will need him in your big league rotation.

You may have to make a different decision in June though if all 5 of the rotation guys are humming along, Ludwick is still a long ways away and LF ends up being a big problem.

The one thing I wouldn't do is trade him for a rental or expensive guy. If I could move him for another big league ready prospect at a need position, I might consider it.

[nate1213]

[PHP]Either plan B or C. I don't think he will be a successful starter. But a very good reliever or possibly a good trade piece. [/PHP]

why not A? what makes you a non-believer?

I don't think having one truly plus-plus pitch leads to a successful starter. He needs to get at least one plus secondary pitch to be effective.

[mth123]

I think he's simply the next guy in line. The Reds have a pitching staff that is 10 deep in winning caliber arms along with lots of filler for the 11th and 12th spots on the staff. If one of the top 10 goes down, I don't have much faith in one of the filler guys (Simon, Parra, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Hensley, Galarragga, Villareal, Partch, etc.) to move into one of those top 10 spots. Cingrani and Corcino are the choices to move into the rotation if one of those guys is sidelined and Cingrani in particular would be my choice for a key pen role if some one like Marshall, Broxton, Chapman or Hoover is sidelined.

Keeping those 10 pitching spots strong is what will allow this team to be a serious contender to win it all. I don't really see the big need to upgrade elsewhere. I let these guys keep pitching until they are needed. They probably will be. If some one like Bruce or Phillips is sidelined for an extended period, then it may become necessary to deal Corcino or Cingrani. Until then, those guys are fine developing and providing depth. Next year will bring a need. Arroyo is likely gone (or re-signed with Bailey or Leake dealt off).

I'm not sure yet if Cingrani will be a starter or a reliever long-term, but I'm fairly confident that he can be a key reliever at a minimum. We cast that aside too easily. I keep hearing that having a good bullpen is important but individual relievers don't matter much. I'm pretty sure that good individual relievers are necessary to have a good bullpen. Contrary to the popular belief, they aren't just easily acquired because we want one. The pen pitches about one third of the team's innings, many times with the game on the line. I want a good pen and good pens are made of good pitchers. If Cingrani ends up there, it won't be a falure that will have us regretting not dealing him off IMO. It will be a successful draft pick that helps the team win.

[M2]

I like having good arms in the system and I don't mind dealing good arms on which I'm not quite sold. It's a feel thing. For instance, I'd keep Cingrani and I'd be completely willing to deal Corcino. Stephenson strikes me as untouchable (loved him since the day he was drafted), but I won't shed any tears if the team cashes in on Travieso.

Anyway, Cingrani's already been better for a more sustained run than Stewart ever was.