Interesting quotes from Mike Leake...

[Lewdog]

I'm sorry, but I'm not just a box score lurker...

The Red Sox led the major leagues in team OBP (beat the Reds by 22 points). They had 57 less sacrifices than the Reds. Are they poor situational hitters? I know, I know, they are American League, so no pitchers hitting. My argument is busted. Out of curiosity, let's take a look at the Cardinals...

The Cardinals finished 3rd in the majors in OBP (5 points above the Reds). They had 29 less sacrifice bunts than the Reds and 2 less sacrifice flies. Are they poor situational hitters?

No, the Cardinals had better hitters than the Reds overall. The Cardinals had 4 regular players hitting over .300 and a guy at .296. The Reds had ONE guy over .300, and that was Votto at .305. The Cardinals didn't sacrifice because they were too busy getting hits. The Cardinals scored 85 more runs, 124 hits,
and a team batting average .020 points higher than the Reds.

That's the reason for the difference. That's what happens when Dusty continues to bat guys in the #2 spot that are hitting less than .250.

Let's go over a typical Reds inning:

Choo gets a hit or walk. Cozart strikes out, gets a fielder's choice, or sacrifices. Votto walks or gets a single. Phillips ends the inning by grounding into a double play.

See where the #2 spot screws up the whole inning?

[MoneyInTheBank]

No, the Cardinals had better hitters than the Reds overall. The Cardinals had 4 regular players hitting over .300 and a guy at .296. The Reds had ONE guy over .300, and that was Votto at .305. The Cardinals didn't sacrifice because they were too busy getting hits. The Cardinals scored 85 more runs, 124 hits,
and a team batting average .020 points higher than the Reds.

That's the reason for the difference. That's what happens when Dusty continues to bat guys in the #2 spot that are hitting less than .250.

Let's go over a typical Reds inning:

Choo gets a hit or walk. Cozart strikes out, gets a fielder's choice, or sacrifices. Votto walks or gets a single. Phillips ends the inning by grounding into a double play.

See where the #2 spot screws up the whole inning?

My point all along has been that you don't need "situational hitting" when you can actually hit. If there are guys in your lineup (besides the pitcher) that you would rather have them give away an out by sacrificing rather than risk them swinging the bat, then you need to DFA them.

I just want to be clear. The Reds, although leading the majors in sacrifices, should have done it more because most of their lineup can't hit?

Speaking of Phillips and GIDPs. If the Reds' sacrifices are skewed due to their high OBP guys, wouldn't Phillips' GIDPs be skewed by having so many runners on as well?

[Lewdog]

My point all along has been that you don't need "situational hitting" when you can actually hit. If there are guys in your lineup (besides the pitcher) that you would rather have them give away an out by sacrificing rather than risk them swinging the bat, then you need to DFA them.

I just want to be clear. The Reds, although leading the majors in sacrifices, should have done it more because most of their lineup can't hit?

Speaking of Phillips and GIDPs. If the Reds' sacrifices are skewed due to their high OBP guys, wouldn't Phillips' GIDPs be skewed by having so many runners on as well?

It wouldn't be if he was hitting higher than .261 while batting in the clean up spot. As a professional hitter he also needs to have better bat control than to hit pitches that are going to result in ground balls that are going to become double plays.

Fact is, Dusty didn't set his batting order right, and the hitters on the team didn't execute well while at the plate when trying to get guys into scoring position or getting them in from third with less than two outs.

Phillips had a decent batting average with runners in scoring position, but when Votto was at first he was very undisciplined about hit hitting.

[MoneyInTheBank]

It wouldn't be if he was hitting higher than .261 while batting in the clean up spot. As a professional hitter he also needs to have better bat control than to hit pitches that are going to result in ground balls that are going to become double plays.

Fact is, Dusty didn't set his batting order right, and the hitters on the team didn't execute well while at the plate when trying to get guys into scoring position or getting them in from third with less than two outs.

Phillips had a decent batting average with runners in scoring position, but when Votto was at first he was very undisciplined about hit hitting.

I think I'm getting warmer... We had the right hitters so that we shouldn't have to hit situationally but since Dusty had them in the wrong order, they needed to hit situationally at an abnormally high rate because the guys who couldn't hit were in more critical spots.

FWIW, the Reds tied for 7th in the majors at getting runners in from 3rd with less than 2 outs at 52% (2% behind the leader LAA). They finished tied for 5th at 58% at advancing a runner from 2nd with 0 outs.

I already know the response to this one, but I'm throwing it out there anyway... Did you know our 2 World Series teams finished 2nd and 6th in the majors in GIDP? The Reds? 13th

[SporkLover]

I think I'm getting warmer... We had the right hitters so that we shouldn't have to hit situationally but since Dusty had them in the wrong order, they needed to hit situationally at an abnormally high rate because the guys who couldn't hit were in more critical spots.

A bit oversimplified I believe, but it is safe to say that the lineup was not optimized to move runners home. How much could it have saved situational hitting ? Tough to say because even if it were Phillips, Frazier, or Luddy batting second, if they get out then the rest of the lineup is in the same position. Sad to say the Cozart isn't even the one with the worst batting average in that bunch.

To say the Reds had the right bats... I don't know. Votto (.305) and Choo (.285) were really the only ones with some level of success. Bruce and Phillips were .260 hitters. Sprinkle in one or two .250 hitters, and everyone else below that.... it's hard for me to agree that the right bats were in place, regardless of batting position in the lineup. You can tweak the line up to optimize chances to win, but it's not going to help batters become consistent .300 hitters.

For Comparison sake the world Series teams, Cardinals have 4 batters at or above .300, one knocking at .300 (Beltran with .296), on in the mid .280's. The weak end of their line up Jon Jay (.276) and David Freed (.262) looks like the middle of the Reds. Pete Kozma is a offense sucking black hole with a BA in the .220's. The Red Sox have 3 guys above .300, 2 in the .290's, and then a slow decline from there. We all know the batting average doesn't tell the full story... obp is usually a good indicator at how well the batter gets on base. The Reds have two very elite OBP guys in Choo (.429) and Votto (.435). Then it drops off 100 points to the next regular starter to Jay Bruce at .329 and a slow decline from there. Red Sox and the Cards? Starts in the upper .390's and slow decline to their worst hitters.

So back to the question... did we have the right bats? I don't know. The bats had a pedestrian year at best. Could a lineup tweak fix that? Doubtful. Perhaps a new hitting coach and hitting philosophy altogether might fix that.

[Reds&BuckeyeGuy]

My point was this team needs to improve their situational hitting. Rather it be hitting to the right side when necessary to move a runner up, sacrifice bunting, or a sac fly to get a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs. This team played poor fundamental baseball in all of those areas and those are things they need to be tightened up.

Couldn't agree more. If it wasn't for all those silly, silly mistakes, I think Dusty would be back and we would of won the division. The lack of baseball knowledge was astounding. The worst part, for me, it didn't get better as season went on...That is very worrisome.

[Reds&BuckeyeGuy]

A bit oversimplified I believe, but it is safe to say that the lineup was not optimized to move runners home. How much could it have saved situational hitting ? Tough to say because even if it were Phillips, Frazier, or Luddy batting second, if they get out then the rest of the lineup is in the same position. Sad to say the Cozart isn't even the one with the worst batting average in that bunch.

To say the Reds had the right bats... I don't know. Votto (.305) and Choo (.285) were really the only ones with some level of success. Bruce and Phillips were .260 hitters. Sprinkle in one or two .250 hitters, and everyone else below that.... it's hard for me to agree that the right bats were in place, regardless of batting position in the lineup. You can tweak the line up to optimize chances to win, but it's not going to help batters become consistent .300 hitters.

For Comparison sake the world Series teams, Cardinals have 4 batters at or above .300, one knocking at .300 (Beltran with .296), on in the mid .280's. The weak end of their line up Jon Jay (.276) and David Freed (.262) looks like the middle of the Reds. Pete Kozma is a offense sucking black hole with a BA in the .220's. The Red Sox have 3 guys above .300, 2 in the .290's, and then a slow decline from there. We all know the batting average doesn't tell the full story... obp is usually a good indicator at how well the batter gets on base. The Reds have two very elite OBP guys in Choo (.429) and Votto (.435). Then it drops off 100 points to the next regular starter to Jay Bruce at .329 and a slow decline from there. Red Sox and the Cards? Starts in the upper .390's and slow decline to their worst hitters.

So back to the question... did we have the right bats? I don't know. The bats had a pedestrian year at best. Could a lineup tweak fix that? Doubtful. Perhaps a new hitting coach and hitting philosophy altogether might fix that.

Excellent points! I think with Price coming in, he will command results. I am certain that him and Walt sat down and got on the same page as what they want to do with this team. Votto second? Trade homer? etc.. They have to be on the same page.. ALL OF THEM. Once they are all on the same page and accouantibility is something that is actually enforced, I strongly believe that we will have an amazing year. No way can you a championship team THINKING they should do this or that (basically not knowing)

[Lewdog]

I still don't understand why people think if Choo comes back he is going to be in CF and Hamilton will be in the minors. Why can't Choo play left? Then have Hamilton lead off, Votto 2nd, Choo 3rd, and then they need to fix the rest of the team from there including finding a cleanup hitter that can hit near .300 and hit 30 or more homers per year.

That's what it is going to take to fis this team offensively.

[Scotly]

No, the Cardinals had better hitters than the Reds overall. The Cardinals had 4 regular players hitting over .300 and a guy at .296. The Reds had ONE guy over .300, and that was Votto at .305. The Cardinals didn't sacrifice because they were too busy getting hits. The Cardinals scored 85 more runs, 124 hits,
and a team batting average .020 points higher than the Reds.

That's the reason for the difference. That's what happens when Dusty continues to bat guys in the #2 spot that are hitting less than .250.

Let's go over a typical Reds inning:

Choo gets a hit or walk. Cozart strikes out, gets a fielder's choice, or sacrifices. Votto walks or gets a single. Phillips ends the inning by grounding into a double play.

See where the #2 spot screws up the whole inning?

Well, you forgot about Bruce. He would end the inning by striking out. He led, on nearly led, the league in strikeouts

[Lewdog]

Well, you forgot about Bruce. He would end the inning by striking out. He led, on nearly led, the league in strikeouts

He bats 5th, it doesn't usually even get to him yet.

[SlimJim11]

Well, you forgot about Bruce. He would end the inning by striking out. He led, on nearly led, the league in strikeouts

or bruce could get an extra base hit. he led, or nearly led, the league in extra base hits.

[SlimJim11]

I still don't understand why people think if Choo comes back he is going to be in CF and Hamilton will be in the minors. Why can't Choo play left? Then have Hamilton lead off, Votto 2nd, Choo 3rd, and then they need to fix the rest of the team from there including finding a cleanup hitter that can hit near .300 and hit 30 or more homers per year.

That's what it is going to take to fis this team offensively.

even if this scenario with having choo and hamilton on the team next year happens, it probably isn't very likely hamilton would be hitting lead off yet.

[PTjvs]

I still don't understand why people think if Choo comes back he is going to be in CF and Hamilton will be in the minors. Why can't Choo play left? Then have Hamilton lead off, Votto 2nd, Choo 3rd, and then they need to fix the rest of the team from there including finding a cleanup hitter that can hit near .300 and hit 30 or more homers per year.

That's what it is going to take to fis this team offensively.

Hamilton currently is not a major league hitter. If he is open opening day leadoff hitter, be prepared for your leadoff hitter to hit .240 for the year OBP sub .300.

jvs

[PriceIsRight]

Hamilton currently is not a major league hitter. If he is open opening day leadoff hitter, be prepared for your leadoff hitter to hit .240 for the year OBP sub .300.

jvs

At least he has a ridiculous skill that could produce runs, unlike many of the guys who were in the lineup this year hitting at that clip.

[MoneyInTheBank]

A bit oversimplified I believe, but it is safe to say that the lineup was not optimized to move runners home. How much could it have saved situational hitting ? Tough to say because even if it were Phillips, Frazier, or Luddy batting second, if they get out then the rest of the lineup is in the same position. Sad to say the Cozart isn't even the one with the worst batting average in that bunch.

To say the Reds had the right bats... I don't know. Votto (.305) and Choo (.285) were really the only ones with some level of success. Bruce and Phillips were .260 hitters. Sprinkle in one or two .250 hitters, and everyone else below that.... it's hard for me to agree that the right bats were in place, regardless of batting position in the lineup. You can tweak the line up to optimize chances to win, but it's not going to help batters become consistent .300 hitters.

For Comparison sake the world Series teams, Cardinals have 4 batters at or above .300, one knocking at .300 (Beltran with .296), on in the mid .280's. The weak end of their line up Jon Jay (.276) and David Freed (.262) looks like the middle of the Reds. Pete Kozma is a offense sucking black hole with a BA in the .220's. The Red Sox have 3 guys above .300, 2 in the .290's, and then a slow decline from there. We all know the batting average doesn't tell the full story... obp is usually a good indicator at how well the batter gets on base. The Reds have two very elite OBP guys in Choo (.429) and Votto (.435). Then it drops off 100 points to the next regular starter to Jay Bruce at .329 and a slow decline from there. Red Sox and the Cards? Starts in the upper .390's and slow decline to their worst hitters.

So back to the question... did we have the right bats? I don't know. The bats had a pedestrian year at best. Could a lineup tweak fix that? Doubtful. Perhaps a new hitting coach and hitting philosophy altogether might fix that.

I hate to say this because you had a long and we'll thought out post but I think you've missed the point of my post.

I was debating with another poster about situational hitting. Go back and read the thread if you'd like. I feel that the Reds sacrifice too much. My point is that situational hitting is not the cure of what ails the Reds. Upgrading the lineup is the cure