I guess using two players with walk rates under 2.20 isn't some kind of outlier.... Still, I don't care what other pitchers can and do, I am worried about what Homer Bailey will do. It is not going to be some shocking outlier if a pitcher goes 150 or more innings with an 8.00 K/9 and a 3.00 or higher BB/9. It happens to about 40% of the guys posting an 8.00 K/9. That is hardly some outlier.
Of course projecting Ryan Braun to do what he did this year was insane too, but it happened. Even last year, when he was struggling at times, he was not throwing 18 pitches an inning. The key to Bailey is getting more pitches to miss bats. As his curveball improved, the strikeout numbers got better. We think opposite things on him. I don't want this to turn into a 5 page long argument between the two of us. I think he goes 7.75 K/9 or higher next year with a sub 4.00 BB/9. You likely don't. Lets leave it at that.While it's possible that Bailey could produce a combination of an 8.00+ K/9 rate and a < 4.00 BB rate, he didn't do it at any level last season. Projecting such at the MLB level in 2008 is pretty aggressive. If he doesn't produce those rates and ends up tossing 17 to 18 pitches per Inning, we need to remember that he doesn't have the kind of workload history that would project well.