Maybe Henry Rodriguez at 3B is an option.

[rgslone]

I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but the more I look at it the more I'm convinced that the Reds CF/lead-off answer is clearly in the Twins organization. They have two great options - Span and Revere - that I would be very happy with heading into next season. Plus it's not like they have to be conviced to make a trade. After the dismissal season they just had the Twins are intent on make multiple trades this off-season, because, like the Reds, they often have a difficult time getting what they need via free-agency due to payroll constraints. Also, the Twins have CFs stacked on top of each other. They absolutely want to trade (and will in fact) trade at least one them. In fact, the Twins are already looking ahead to 2014 and beyond and therefore could even trade both Span and Revere because they have I believe 3 other CF options very close to being ready. One such option in particular is considered a stud CF prospect (Aaron Hicks).

[Eric the Red]

Originally Posted by rgslone

Good analysis of the situation. But I think the Reds are going to explore every other reasonable option before relying on a just turned 23 yr. old HRod to begin the season, don't you?

I do agree that the front office will do their due diligence on any potential 3B (Rolen, Chavez, Polanco) before believing HRod could be relied upon.

I also agree with you that the Twins contain the solution to the CF/leadoff conundrum. Similar to HRod, in no way do they want to rush Hamilton so if Revere or Span could be acquired at a reasonable price I think the Reds will do it.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by rgslone

I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but the more I look at it the more I'm convinced that the Reds CF/lead-off answer is clearly in the Twins organization. They have two great options - Span and Revere - that I would be very happy with heading into next season. Plus it's not like they have to be conviced to make a trade. After the dismissal season they just had the Twins are intent on make multiple trades this off-season, because, like the Reds, they often have a difficult time getting what they need via free-agency due to payroll constraints. Also, the Twins have CFs stacked on top of each other. They absolutely want to trade (and will in fact) trade at least one them. In fact, the Twins are already looking ahead to 2014 and beyond and therefore could even trade both Span and Revere because they have I believe 3 other CF options very close to being ready. One such option in particular is considered a stud CF prospect (Aaron Hicks).

They certainly do have pieces we (and many other teams) want. So, the fact that they haven't made a deal yet leads me to believe they are asking for the moon. Rumor has it Minnesota wants to restock it's farm system with young pitching. So, it's likely they are asking for at least 2 of Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson, Lotzkar, Travieso plus more. Is Span worth that?

[drowg14]

Originally Posted by Hondo

I am not worried about Bourn's age for the next 3 years... I think he is highly worth the cost in 2016-2017 if he gets the Reds the production they need... We are talking about Dollars here...

Madson or Soria $8 Million give or take

+

Ludwick $7-$9 Million for 3 years...

= $15 Million

I would rather put that money over the next 3 years into one lead-pff hitter who gets the Reds where they need to go, who will have a ripple affect on the entire lineup where you won't have a guy like Bruce hit 30+HR and land on 99 RBI...

This is what makes the most sense... For this team, for the next 3 years. The Reds need to be serious about filling their most glaring need and pay to do so, even if that means over-paying Bourn on 2016 & 2017, then so be it... IMHO.

I guess it depends on the money from the new tv deal I keep hearing about. BP's contract will start too look less appealing 2016/2017. Plus those are the years that Votto's contract jumps to the 20's, per cots (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...s/?page_id=109). So having to overpay for Bourn for those two years, on top of overpaying for BP those two years, with Votto's increase, plus having to resign all of our young talent between now and then, I don't really see it as a viable option unless our payroll skyrockets in between now and 2016.

[rgslone]

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

They certainly do have pieces we (and many other teams) want. So, the fact that they haven't made a deal yet leads me to believe they are asking for the moon. Rumor has it Minnesota wants to restock it's farm system with young pitching. So, it's likely they are asking for at least 2 of Corcino, Cingrani, Stephenson, Lotzkar, Travieso plus more. Is Span worth that?

For the Reds purposes, I would have to say that Span is not worth 2 of our top pitching prospects. If the Reds didn't have Hamilton in the wings, then it would be a tougher call. Span is a good all around CF, and he's only 28. The Twins view him and Willingham as their top trade bait, so they certainly do want to leverage those players for maximum return. And a team like Atlanta, who would be looking at Span as a longer-term option in CF, would probably pay a higher trade price for Span than the Reds. On the other hand, I'm confident that the Twins would also trade Ben Revere (a Juan Pierre type with better defense) and maybe even keep Span until the trading deadline in 2013. Regardless, I think the Twins expect to move both Span and Revere by 2014, if not before, due to Aaron Hicks (similar situation for them as Hamilton is for us).

You are also right that the Twins want pitching (actually they are starving for it), and they're pretty desperate for a SS also. Homer Bailey would probably be the Ace of their staff, and Mike Leake a #3 (heck maybe a #2). That's why I think something like Homer Bailey and little more than a throw-in, or Cozart & Cingrani, or Coazrt & Leake & a lower tier pitching prosect could net Willingham (who's not in their long-term plans) and Revere (expendable). I'm not saying the Reds should do that - that's another discussion, but I think it could be done if the Reds think it improves them.

[Girevik]

Originally Posted by rgslone

If the Reds didn't have Hamilton in the wings, then it would be a tougher call.

I'm always leery of basing a move on what is in the minors, especially at the AA level and lower. Right now Hamilton is a ton of raw talent with no real position and a still developing bat. I'm very much much a "bird in the hand" kind of guy when it comes to talent. Give me the proven commodity any day.

[rgslone]

Originally Posted by Girevik

I'm always leery of basing a move on what is in the minors, especially at the AA level and lower. Right now Hamilton is a ton of raw talent with no real position and a still developing bat. I'm very much much a "bird in the hand" kind of guy when it comes to talent. Give me the proven commodity any day.

That's just being prudent, I can't disagree. Upon thinking more about Span, however, you know he could still be a good trade chip for the Reds if and when Hamilton becomes ready. So, I guess he would have more value to the Reds than I was suggesting (I was thinking more in terms of him being of 1 yr. stop-gap).

[Hondo]

Originally Posted by drowg14

I guess it depends on the money from the new tv deal I keep hearing about. BP's contract will start too look less appealing 2016/2017. Plus those are the years that Votto's contract jumps to the 20's, per cots (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...s/?page_id=109). So having to overpay for Bourn for those two years, on top of overpaying for BP those two years, with Votto's increase, plus having to resign all of our young talent between now and then, I don't really see it as a viable option unless our payroll skyrockets in between now and 2016.

I guess in my estimation that the Reds could be dominant over the next 3 years while the core is still young... So I am willing to have a Gold Glove CF the next 5 years worse case scenerio and batting 8th in 2016 & 2017 if need be to win the next 3 years...

[Eric the Red]

The possible return of Scott Rolen certainly has implications on HRod's 2013 season. Per Jayson Stark, Rolen has indicated he may play next year.

Jayson Stark‏@jaysonst

Tidbit I heard today: Scott Rolen has told Reds he may play in 2013, but not ready to make a decision. Reds would like him back in some role

[rgslone]

Originally Posted by Eric the Red

The possible return of Scott Rolen certainly has implications on HRod's 2013 season. Per Jayson Stark, Rolen has indicated he may play next year.

Rolen in a Miguel Cairo role (and less than $3M) is ok by me - in fact, I like it. I don't think that HRod should be placed in a utility role at this point, so under my scenario Rolen wouldn't be a hinderance to HRod's chance to win the 3B job. But I don't want Rolen brought back to be the starting 3B.