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Thread: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

  1. #151
    getting younger alloverjr's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    I never realized how much the optomist I really was - I called 74 wins


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  3. #152
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'll defer to your cave-in vision (proven out in previous seasons), though 25-36 from here on out strikes me as plausible.
    I just can't see where they're going to find the pitching. Homer Bailey is currently the Reds' hottest pitcher.
    “And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith

  4. #153
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I just can't see where they're going to find the pitching. Homer Bailey is currently the Reds' hottest pitcher.
    Sir, you are forgetting the amazing Justin Lehr.

    He's going to headbutt the Rox right in the mouth.

  5. #154
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I just can't see where they're going to find the pitching. Homer Bailey is currently the Reds' hottest pitcher.
    Arroyo is always capable of ripping off a solid run of 4 or 5 starts. That'd help. I suspect Cueto will right himself eventually as well. The pitching isn't nearly as bad as it has been.

    Plus, once you get into September, they'll be playing more teams that look like them (glorified AAA squads).

    I suppose the smart thing to do would be to prophesize doom and gloom -- but really, life's depressing enough already.
    Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 07-30-2009 at 10:03 PM.
    Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022

  6. #155
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Arroyo is always capable of ripping off a solid run of 4 or 5 starts. That'd help. I suspect Cueto will right himself eventually as well. The pitching isn't nearly as bad as it has been.

    Plus, once you get into September, they'll be playing more teams that look like them (glorified AAA squads).
    We can dream, no?
    “And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith

  7. #156
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    We can dream, no?
    It's what keeps me getting out of bed in the morning.
    Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022

  8. #157
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    They are now playing the way I expected but they played over their head the 1st two months so I think they will go past my 60 prediction but not by more then 5.

  9. #158
    Mailing it in Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    My prediction of 77 wins seems idiotic right now, though I will submit that I also didn't foresee as many injuries as the Reds have had. You always must take into account some injuries, but they've had a few more than expected.

    Nevertheless, gonelong mentioned that the formula in recent years for actual wins has been "ORG Average - 7 = Actual Wins." With the ORG average at 79 wins, that'd pin the Reds right at 72 wins, and that seems very realistic and on target at this point.
    The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
    2014-22 Average Season: 71-91

  10. #159
    Smooth WMR's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    My prediction of 77 wins seems idiotic right now, though I will submit that I also didn't foresee as many injuries as the Reds have had. You always must take into account some injuries, but they've had a few more than expected.

    Nevertheless, gonelong mentioned that the formula in recent years for actual wins has been "ORG Average - 7 = Actual Wins." With the ORG average at 79 wins, that'd pin the Reds right at 72 wins, and that seems very realistic and on target at this point.
    That's a roundabout way of saying that WMR was correct, in other words? :

  11. #160
    Mailing it in Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    That's a roundabout way of saying that WMR was correct, in other words? :
    Hmmm ... now I see you guessed 72 wins ...

    So yep, I could have saved myself a whole lot of typing by just saying "WMR is a prophet - he knows all!"
    The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
    2014-22 Average Season: 71-91

  12. #161
    Smooth WMR's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Hmmm ... now I see you guessed 72 wins ...

    So yep, I could have saved myself a whole lot of typing by just saying "WMR is a prophet - he knows all!"
    "My first act as GM is to fire myself and name Cyclone my successor."

  13. #162
    Mailing it in Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    "My first act as GM is to fire myself and name Cyclone my successor."


    I did once have an impressive OOTP online league resume.
    The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
    2014-22 Average Season: 71-91

  14. #163
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Going to be hard to make 70-92.

  15. #164
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post


    I did once have an impressive OOTP online league resume.
    That's b/c you knew how to trade for talent, and you drafted well.

    2 things lost on the Reds...

  16. #165
    Beware of Fake Posts Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 - Gonelong's 8th annual Season Ws prediction thread ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    Good man. Winner gets to pick the loser's avatar that the loser has to display for a while (during '09-'10 offseason?). I'm thinking something Cubs related...
    Well, up until about a week ago I was feeling pretty confident about our bet. Now I'm starting to hope MWM goes easy on me.


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