Should the Reds consider dealing Chapman for offensive help?

[Rojo]

In about a month, you can get a rent-a-bat for considerably less than Chapman. And we'll have an in-house rent-a-bat coming off the DL.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Not at all. And, just to clarify, this is not an "OMG the sky is falling!" post.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to imply that it was. The "overreact" comment was just in general.

Completely agree with emphasis on pitching. It's the difference between what we were five years ago (and for the greater part of two lost decades) and what we are now. Great pitching gives you a chance every time you go out there.

I'm not advocating we gut the team's pitching and go back to Bowdenball. You have a rock-solid rotation with or without Chapman. That's not changing. But after watching what happened to them the last two trips to the playoffs and seeing a lot of the same tendencies pop up through the first 35 games this season, I can't see how the offense isn't a valid concern. (Note concern, not panic.)

They have a great commodity in Chapman. Could he bring better value to the club as part of a deal?

We have a rock solid rotation NOW....but we don't know how things will look moving forward. Homer, Bronson...Latos extention, etc. Chapman plays a big role in that. And moving him now out of the pen leaves us short there as well (although I don't consider that as big of an issue...we could back-fill).

Simply put, he's an elite arm that's signed for a VERY reasonable price...that's a commodity that we can't let go of unless we absolutely have to.

And as for the offense being a concern....people can twist the numbers however they want, the bottom line is we've scored a bunch of runs compared to the rest of the league. When they come, how they come, who produces them....I don't care as long as they DO come. Yes, we've had some high scoring games. We've also had some low scoring games. I prefer to split the difference and assume we're somewhere in the middle. So I'll stick with the average runs scored. Offense is fine, simply slumping some.

[BluegrassRedleg]

I think its a great idea! Trade the pitching that keeps you in games and is the reason you are winning to help the offense when they slump. The Reds have a chance to trade a great arm for a SS, another for a left fielder and another to replace that feckless RF Bruce. When we're done it will be 2006 all over again! All those homers and runs are sure fun....who needs pitching...especially since I read in another thread our starters aren't good enough anyway. What the heck is happening?

Who said anything about trading Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake or Cingrani?

That's the "pitching that keeps you in games." Chapman is not keeping you in games. In fact, he's seldom IN games. That is the spirit of my question. Is there greater value in considering him as part of a deal?

[_Sir_Charles_]

Who said anything about trading Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake or Cingrani?

That's the "pitching that keeps you in games." Chapman is not keeping you in games. In fact, he's seldom IN games. That is the spirit of my question. Is there greater value in considering him as part of a deal?

I think one of the main reasons we're seeing Chapman in the pen this year is because we had so many viable options for the rotation. That's not going to be the case moving forward. Dealing Chapman now...sure, it might help us overall this year (possible, but I doubt it) but you also have to look at the longer picture.

[RedlegJake]

I apologize for being snarky Bluegrass....my ire was less at your post than a fed up reaction at the daily trade proposals for every good pitcher, including starters. The only pitcher who hasn't been bandied in trade talk to save our offense is Latos. The Bruce is worthless...offense is horrible...Frazier or Mes or "insert player name' sucks and needs to be replaced and general panichas me at a point I should just take a vacation from RZ until I am not so fed up. Again...sorry it was not personal and unlike my normal tenor when posting. Jake

[BluegrassRedleg]

I apologize for being snarky Bluegrass....my ire was less at your post than a fed up reaction at the daily trade proposals for every good pitcher, including starters. The only pitcher who hasn't been bandied in trade talk to save our offense is Latos. The Bruce is worthless...offense is horrible...Frazier or Mes or "insert player name' sucks and needs to be replaced and general panichas me at a point I should just take a vacation from RZ until I am not so fed up. Again...sorry it was not personal and unlike my normal tenor when posting. Jake

No worries. I knew the risk when I posted it. It's often hard to project the intended tone for a topic like this.

[nate]

This teams offensive numbers can be twisted though. You could have just as easily have said that the Reds have scored 2 or fewer runs in 13 of our games this year (which I believe is near tops in the league). We've also scored double digits 5 times, which is probably near the tops.

A simple stat that you provide doesn't really explain the offenses success or failures. We have scored 38% of our runs in 5 games.

That's not really surprising because that's how math works. Higher numbers = a higher percentage. Every team is going to look like this. If you play 10 games, score 10 runs in 1 game and 10 runs in the other 9, you've scored 50% of your runs in 10% of your games.

Put another way, the Reds have scored 38% of their runs in 15% of their games.

As a comparison, the NL has scored 43% (the closest percentage I could find to 38%) of it's runs in 20% of it's games.

The Reds have scored 2 or fewer runs in 38% of their games.

The NL has scored 2 or fewer runs in 35% of their games.

The Reds have scored 5 or more runs in 50% of their games.

The NL has scored 5 or more runs in 39% of their games.

The Reds have scored 1 run in 24% (8) of their games. Then again, they score 4 runs or higher 56% of the time while the league only does that 51% of the time.

[TOBTTReds]

True, still the sample is small and trying to get offense by dumping pitching seems a little too robbing Peter to pay Paul 5 weeks into the season

I totally agree.

[webbbj]

i think they should just use Chapman in high leverage situations earlier in the ball game instead of waiting till its too late to use him or using him with 3 runs leads in the 9th.

Chapman is much more valuable with a one run lead in the 7th when the starter lets the 1st 2 guys on base than he is in the 9th when the reds are down b/c he wasnt utilized properly in the 7th.

[cincrazy]

I've waited my entire life to see arms like this pitch for the Reds. Now we're talking about trading them. No thanks. Pitching is the name of the game. When you have an arm like Chapman, you don't give him up.

[nate]

i think they should just use Chapman in high leverage situations earlier in the ball game instead of waiting till its too late to use him or using him with 3 runs leads in the 9th.

Chapman is much more valuable with a one run lead in the 7th when the starter lets the 1st 2 guys on base than he is in the 9th when the reds are down b/c he wasnt utilized properly in the 7th.

I like the cut of your jib.

High five!

[Vottomatic]

NL Central team stats:

Batting average in MLB:
10. Cardinals .258
19. Reds .245
23. Pirates .241

HR's in MLB:
15. Pirates 35
17. Reds 33
24. Cardinals 28

Runs in MLB:
6. Reds 158
7. Cardinals 156
20. Pirates 130

Pitching e.r.a. in MLB:
1. Cardinals 3.07
10. Reds 3.63
11. Pirates 3.71

Starting pitching e.r.a. in MLB:
1. Cardinals 2.29
2. Detroit 3.04 (for example)
7. Reds 3.46
18. Pirates 4.32

Relief pitching e.r.a. in MLB:
9. Pirates 2.92
16. Reds 3.97
29. Cardinals 5.14

[TOBTTReds]

That's not really surprising because that's how math works. Higher numbers = a higher percentage. Every team is going to look like this. If you play 10 games, score 10 runs in 1 game and 10 runs in the other 9, you've scored 50% of your runs in 10% of your games.

Put another way, the Reds have scored 38% of their runs in 15% of their games.

As a comparison, the NL has scored 43% (the closest percentage I could find to 38%) of it's runs in 20% of it's games.

The Reds have scored 2 or fewer runs in 38% of their games.

The NL has scored 2 or fewer runs in 35% of their games.

The Reds have scored 5 or more runs in 50% of their games.

The NL has scored 5 or more runs in 39% of their games.

The Reds have scored 1 run in 24% (8) of their games. Then again, they score 4 runs or higher 56% of the time while the league only does that 51% of the time.

All of this is exactly my point. I wasn't saying our offense was good or bad in my post. Just saying that you can explain our offense with stats in 50 different ways, and make them look any way you want, like they score x % of runs in 5 games.

But thanks for letting me know how math works, that was really informative for me.

[BluegrassRedleg]

i think they should just use Chapman in high leverage situations earlier in the ball game instead of waiting till its too late to use him or using him with 3 runs leads in the 9th.

Chapman is much more valuable with a one run lead in the 7th when the starter lets the 1st 2 guys on base than he is in the 9th when the reds are down b/c he wasnt utilized properly in the 7th.

Interesting point. Agree with you on those situations. Sometimes the "save" is actually earlier.

Goes back to what my original premise was: if he's going to be a Red, get more out of his gifted arm.

[LexRedsFan]

I think one of the main reasons we're seeing Chapman in the pen this year is because we had so many viable options for the rotation. That's not going to be the case moving forward. Dealing Chapman now...sure, it might help us overall this year (possible, but I doubt it) but you also have to look at the longer picture.

But...is Chapman to the rotation in the longer term even a viable option? Or is he just going to encounter the same thing we did this year? We know Dusty will want him in the bullpen as always. We'll have an innings cap on him. We know he (apparently?) prefers the bullpen.

I feel that this year was make or break for making Chapman a starter in Cincy.