Reds Have No One But Themselves To Blame

[Falls City Beer]

I think the Reds get a mulligan this season due to Votto's injury, but next season really has to come with clear eyes.

[kpresidente]

Votto hasn't even started making much money yet. That won't come until 2016. How can that be to blame?

[oregonred]

The Reds received no discount on arb years or FA dollars from Votto or BP's contract - unlike smart deals such as Bruce and Cueto. So as a small/mid market they paid market value and above while locking themselves into bad LTC's on the wrong side of 30. And we all know that the ROI has been suspect at best and downright terrible historically for the mega-deals such as Votto.

Joey has 8 yrs left on the deal and a $199M commitment by the Reds. The Reds needed Joey to crush it in the early years to payback the overpay in the out years. Surely that commitment has some impact on the roster planning and budget for 2014/2015.

A good test is what would a 31-yr old Votto coming off two injury seasons in the past three years command on the open market in the offseason? I'd say maybe a 6 yr/120M deal Choo type deal. The Reds aren't sunk (yet) but it is an uphill climb to get anywhere close to even money payment on this deal. Limited to no upside, but massive downside.

[AtomicDumpling]

Votto hasn't even started making much money yet. That won't come until 2016. How can that be to blame?

I would imagine the Reds are already setting aside and investing money earmarked for Votto in the later years of the contract. That is the reason why teams defer the largest salaries into the last years of contracts -- so they can invest $10 million today and allow it to grow into $15 million by the time they need to pay it out. Essentially it allows the Reds to give Votto $225 million while only paying about $150-175 million in real 2014 dollars.

[Chuckie]

To be fair Doug, I think you would probably argue that the Reds ARE way overpaying him for the utility they are getting, since he is being used as closer.

jvs

No, the Reds are getting excellent value out of Chapman, even as a closer.

[villain612]

I would imagine the Reds are already setting aside and investing money earmarked for Votto in the later years of the contract. That is the reason why teams defer the largest salaries into the last years of contracts -- so they can invest $10 million today and allow it to grow into $15 million by the time they need to pay it out. Essentially it allows the Reds to give Votto $225 million while only paying about $150-175 million in real 2014 dollars.

Precisely.

$25 million in 2014 won't be the same $25 million 6 years from now. Payrolls increase. Castellini isn't dumb.

Contracts are determined by market value. Votto would've gotten the same deal (or maybe a bigger deal) somewhere else had he not signed here.

[oregonred]

Precisely.

$25 million in 2014 won't be the same $25 million 6 years from now. Payrolls increase. Castellini isn't dumb.

Contracts are determined by market value. Votto would've gotten the same deal (or maybe a bigger deal) somewhere else had he not signed here.

Joey wouldn't have hit the market until this past offseason. I don't believe he would have received anything close to a 9 yr/211M deal at age 30 this last winter coming off his knee injury and a "good" but not great 2013 season.

[kbrake]

Joey wouldn't have hit the market until this past offseason. I don't believe he would have received anything close to a 9 yr/211M deal at age 30 this last winter coming off his knee injury and a "good" but not great 2013 season.

The Reds didn't have that luxury. Had they waited until he was a FA and with no knee injury he could have easily priced himself out of Cincinnati. Given what has happened I'm sure the Reds wouldn't have handed him the same contract but that isn't the way it works.

The whole premise of this thread is absurd. The Reds don't have anyone to blame for anything. They are still in good shape. They might need to make a couple moves to better support the core of the team but this roster is still loaded with talent. And can we please stop acting like this is the small market Linder owned Reds. Castellini has spent money and will continue to do so.

[Roy Tucker]

$25 million here, $25 million there, pretty soon you're talking about some real money.

All is not lost. Let's play some more games. Baseball can be a funny game.

[Tom Servo]

Joey wouldn't have hit the market until this past offseason. I don't believe he would have received anything close to a 9 yr/211M deal at age 30 this last winter coming off his knee injury and a "good" but not great 2013 season.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. In this alternate world where Votto doesn't sign his extension in April 2012, maybe he doesn't injury his knee.

[Chuckie]

This is nothing like the Griffey signing. The Reds basically signed Griffey and said lead us all by yourself.

The Reds signed Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto and Bailey to long term deals. The Reds traded for Mat Latos. The Reds signed Aroldis Chapman.

Apples and Grizzly Bears.

You're just going to pretend that the 2000 Reds didn't sign Dante Bichette? They were obviously giving Griffey everything he needed and more.



(In all seriousness, the team did win 96 games the previous year. The [incorrect] thought at the time was the team would automatically be as good or better with Griffey, even if they didn't make many moves other than trading for Griffey and signing Bichette in the offseason.)

[oregonred]

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. In this alternate world where Votto doesn't sign his extension in April 2012, maybe he doesn't injury his knee.

And your point is...

You are missing it completely. The simple question is Joey Votto worth 8/199 from 2015 forward? If not, the Reds have an issue. The magnitude of the issue is open for debate, but it seems to be looking worse and worse with each passing summer.

Small market, mid-market doesn't matter. This will have a major impact on budget planning for every Reds team assembled from 2015-2022.

[steig]

It is time that Walt start taking some of the blame for this team and its inability to win. If there is no financial flexibility with 115 million for the payrol then he screwed up. The cardinals have a lower payroll and better team because they front office is smarter, not B Bean smart, but more than anyone working for the Reds

[redsfandan]

No, the Reds are getting excellent value out of Chapman, even as a closer.

Eh, I don't know about that. If you really believe that Chuckie, tell me this. How many relief pitchers (without a single start) have made as much money as Chapman in the first five years of their major league career? I doubt you'll find a single one.

It's not that Chapman isn't good cuz, yeah, he's been REALLY good. But, even when Walt has made a move for a good player most of the time he's given up more for the player more than he should've or probably needed to. Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, Diaz, . . . with each of those guys Walt gave up more than he should've for the job: reliever (how many millions do they really need for their bullpen?). Then look at BP (a contract with more years than most people would've given), Votto (yeah it's always good to keep a bat like Votto but he got everything but the kitchen sink in that deal), . . . The only long term contract that I really like is the one for Bruce although I'm a little afraid of what his next contract might be.

I'm not sure that the deals for BP and Votto are hurting the teams ability to make moves right NOW. There are some contracts that are definite head scratchers though.

[villain612]

Joey wouldn't have hit the market until this past offseason. I don't believe he would have received anything close to a 9 yr/211M deal at age 30 this last winter coming off his knee injury and a "good" but not great 2013 season.

I'm not thrilled that Votto is hurt right now...but I do know that between 2009-2013, Joey Votto led all of MLB in wRC+. Instead of waiting till he became a free agent to bid for his services amongst 29 other teams, the front office decided to be proactive and sign the guy to a long term extension a year early. It's easy to look back now and say how dumb that decision was since he's on the DL now, but how about giving Castellini credit for putting his money where his mouth is and ponying up the dough to keep top level talent in Cincinnati for the rest of his career. Besides, it's his money, not yours.