Reds Standing firm.

[Bip Roberts]

We all would like to win next year but we also arent going to just give away some of the best prospects in baseball for a pitcher that has a lot of question marks in bedard

[OUReds]

Last year, Votto posted a .859 OPS in around 500 ABs in AAA. The same OPS would rank him below Dimitri Young and above Adrian Gonzalez, Squarely in the middle of the pack of ML 1st basemen. In contrast, Hatteberg posted an OPS of .868 last year. I like Votto fine, but to suggest that he will be one of the better first basemen in baseball next year (or 2009, or 2010) is not realistic.

Bailey has less then 120 innings in AAA and above, and frankly those innings don't portend a top of the line starting pitcher anytime within the next couple years. Cueto has 22 innings in AAA. expecting him to be a front line starter anytime soon is a huge stretch.

I don't see where Bedard is much riskier then any other pitcher on the market.

Look, I don't want to give away the farm, and I am high on all of our prospects, but if you can make a reasonable deal for a frontline pitcher that gives us a reasonable chance to compete the next couple years, you do it IMHO. Hamilton or Votto, Bailey or Cueto, and a couple of lower teir prospects is fair for both sides.

[BLEEDS]

I have heard many people say Votto will never be better than a league average first baseman, and he showed just the opposite in September.


The biggest mistake we could mak is to trade all our top prospects for short-term gain.

We are NOT going to trade ALL of our top prospects. BUT, we SHOULD trade one or two of them for a PROVEN commodity, even if it is short-term. There really IS no "Long-Term" anymore in Baseball, not with FA and trades, and as long as the Yankees/Mets/BoSox/Dodgers/etc have $100M+ payrolls.. and when you're dealing with PROSPECTS for your "Long-Term" it's even MORE of an unknown...

We agree on Votto though; he is the LAST of the "Big Four" that I would trade, other than Bruce.

IMO, I could live with Trading ONE of Bailey/Cueto for a Bedard-type pitcher, even if we KNEW we would only have them for 2-3 years. IMO, that's enough to get us over the hump, get us to win, SHORT TERM - which brings more people to the park, which puts more money in the team, which gives them options to spend more $$, etc... Anybody remember the BallPark in 1995 when we were in the Playoffs? They will come, they most definitely will come...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

Last year, Votto posted a .859 OPS in around 500 ABs in AAA. The same OPS would rank him below Dimitri Young and above Adrian Gonzalez, Squarely in the middle of the pack of ML 1st basemen. In contrast, Hatteberg posted an OPS of .868 last year. I like Votto fine, but to suggest that he will be one of the better first basemen in baseball next year (or 2009, or 2010) is not realistic.

Bailey has less then 120 innings in AAA and above, and frankly those innings don't portend a top of the line starting pitcher anytime within the next couple years. Cueto has 22 innings in AAA. expecting him to be a front line starter anytime soon is a huge stretch.

I don't see where Bedard is much riskier then any other pitcher on the market.

Look, I don't want to give away the farm, and I am high on all of our prospects, but if you can make a reasonable deal for a frontline pitcher that gives us a reasonable chance to compete the next couple years, you do it IMHO. Hamilton or Votto, Bailey or Cueto, and a couple of lower teir prospects is fair for both sides.

Bedard has his risk with being injury prone and also seems very unwilling to sign an extension. He also is coming off a career year and could easily slip back to being good but not dominate.

[OUReds]

All pitchers are injury prone. Given his age, Bedard is less likely to sustain a severe injury then either Bailey or Cueto. I know he hasn't exactly been an innings workhorse, but his problems last year were not serious and not pitching at the end of the year was strictly precautionary.

He certainly took a step forward last year, so there is the chance that last year was a career year. His peripheral numbers (WHIP and K/9innings) certainly don't scream fluke though, and he is definately not at the age where you would expect a significant regression. It's not like he came out of nowhere, his 2006/2005 numbers were pretty darn good as well. There's as much chance that Harang will crash as Bedard in 2008.

[757690]

That's where I differ with these threads. The Reds' overall run differential was -70. The Cubs' run differential was +62. To expect to be competitive next year you are need to change the run differential equation by about 130 runs.

Seeing that we gave up 853 runs last year (2nd worst in the NL), most of these runs have to be made up from the pitching staff. Certainly we all hope the bullpen will be better, so some improvement will come from that, but a starting staff that last year consisted of Harang/Arroyo/?/?/? was a huge part of the problem.

Well, the starting staff is still Harang/Arroyo/?/?/?. It's certainly nice that the ?s will be filled with young pitchers that have promise to develop instead of the dreck we've thrown out over the past, oh, 10 years. Expecting Bailey/Cueto/Maloney/Belisle/fringe FA signing to fill out a playoff calibre starting staff next year is unrealistic however. The numbers just don't add up.

If you want to win NEXT YEAR, the only way to do that (barring phenomenal luck) is to add a difference making starting pitcher. The only way to do that is to let go of some of your prospects.

Frankly, I'd like to win next year for a change.

The Diamondbacks last year actually had a -20 runs difference last year and went to the NL Championship series. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a +19 runs difference. So the Reds don't necessarily need to get to +62 runs to compete.

But let's say the Reds need to get where the Cubs were last year, and they need to gain 132 runs.

By adding Cordero, they move Weathers and Burton back, and don't have to use guys like Stanton or Coffey as much. Last year the Reds bullpen gave up 281 runs. The league average is 220 runs for a bullpen. I say that Cordero makes the Reds least an average bullpen. That's 61 runs right there.

And remember that just with MacKanin, they gained over 20 runs than with Narron. I think Dusty will be at least as good as MacKanin. So that's a gain of at least 81 runs.

Just with Cordero and Baker, the Reds are back to even or better.

Add with EE probably having a better year, Votto being an improvement over Hatteberg, Hamilton healthier for more than 90 games, Gonzalez healthy and available for more than 110 games, a full of year of Hopper and Keppinger on the bench the Reds gain around 20 runs. So even with terrible 3-5 starters again, the Reds probably gain at least 100 runs.

The 3-5 starters gave up 348 runs (in 509 innings for a whopping 6.15 ERA). I think that it is safe to say the Reds 3-5 starters can gain 34 runs (10%) with just a few tweaks. If they add some veteran innings eaters, that difference could be even greater.

So, it really is not that hard to see how the Reds could make up 130 runs, and be competitive, without trading any of the big five or acquiring a difference making starter.

[Bip Roberts]

All pitchers are injury prone. Given his age, Bedard is less likely to sustain a severe injury then either Bailey or Cueto. I know he hasn't exactly been an innings workhorse, but his problems last year were not serious and not pitching at the end of the year was strictly precautionary.

He certainly took a step forward last year, so there is the chance that last year was a career year. His peripheral numbers (WHIP and K/9innings) certainly don't scream fluke though, and he is definately not at the age where you would expect a significant regression. It's not like he came out of nowhere, his 2006/2005 numbers were pretty darn good as well. There's as much chance that Harang will crash as Bedard in 2008.

Hes had more injury problems that just last year dude.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Exactly. IIRC he also had Tommy John surgery very early in his carreer too.

[thatcoolguy_22]

The Diamondbacks last year actually had a -20 runs difference last year and went to the NL Championship series. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a +19 runs difference. So the Reds don't necessarily need to get to +62 runs to compete.

But let's say the Reds need to get where the Cubs were last year, and they need to gain 132 runs.

By adding Cordero, they move Weathers and Burton back, and don't have to use guys like Stanton or Coffey as much. Last year the Reds bullpen gave up 281 runs. The league average is 220 runs for a bullpen. I say that Cordero makes the Reds least an average bullpen. That's 61 runs right there.

And remember that just with MacKanin, they gained over 20 runs than with Narron. I think Dusty will be at least as good as MacKanin. So that's a gain of at least 81 runs.

Just with Cordero and Baker, the Reds are back to even or better.

Add with EE probably having a better year, Votto being an improvement over Hatteberg, Hamilton healthier for more than 90 games, Gonzalez healthy and available for more than 110 games, a full of year of Hopper and Keppinger on the bench the Reds gain around 20 runs. So even with terrible 3-5 starters again, the Reds probably gain at least 100 runs.

The 3-5 starters gave up 348 runs (in 509 innings for a whopping 6.15 ERA). I think that it is safe to say the Reds 3-5 starters can gain 34 runs (10%) with just a few tweaks. If they add some veteran innings eaters, that difference could be even greater.

So, it really is not that hard to see how the Reds could make up 130 runs, and be competitive, without trading any of the big five or acquiring a difference making starter.

*TCG quickly ducks* before getting smashed by hyperbole and random speculation...

1) The defense is still below average and the corner OFs are both horrendous.
2) 4/5 SP's are still unknown and are likely to be a combo of near washed up has been and a rookie with control problems...
3) Cordero's addition does not make the Reds an average bullpen by any stretch of the term. Weathers is old, Burton is still unproven, then what? Stanton? Majewski? Bray? McBeth? Salmon possibly makes the club? bring up Pelland? Where is the rest of the average bullpen, because I don't see them standing with the rest of the team...
4) Bruce/Votto/Bailey/Cueto even if they do ever reach their potential, it WILL NOT be this year! How fast can a team and their message boards sour on a prospect or a young player? Ask Todd Coffey.
5) Someone try to explain why (and without giving a Bruce projection similar to Bill James or saying that Cueto and Bailey will be as dominant as DougDirt thinks they will be) you possibly think that we can compete in the division this year.
6) Someone name me the last dominant Reds pitching prospect to be worth his hype after reaching the show.
7) As far as bailey goes... Depends too heavily on his fastball and barely can throw a changeup, let alone for strikes. However he has "been working" on it for the last 3 years... Walk rate is over 4 per 9IP and his K rate was below 6 last year. Way too many walks not even close to enough K's and thats before we mention the possible attitude problem in the works...
8) As far as cueto goes... Excellent command and nasty stuff but be honest with yourselves people... HE IS 5'10"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It has been debated over and over again but I'll take a guy with the longer stride and downward pitching angle over the short kid putting enormous strain on his arm with his midget man stride to home.
9) This whole thread angers me
10) Jeff Keppinger reminds me a lot of Chris Stynes... I don't trust him yet. Norris Hopper has NO pop in his bat at all. Its like a faster version of a typical 12 year old trying to bunt his way on in little league because he can't catch up to the 60mph heat that kids tossin his direction...




The biggest problem I have with everyone's theory to stay firm is that it depends on having all 5 of our top prospects (I'm including Hamilton. Half a season proves nothing to me) reach their respective ceilings within the next 3 years while we still have Harang/Arroyo in our control. Plus it assumes that EE will somehow finally blossom and reach his potential while BP must continue his current 30/30 exploits and possibly win a GG.


Go for Bedard now. Build a package around Bruce and make it happen! 2 years with Bedard to work out a LTC. Funny thing happens when your team wins, you tend to resign with them... see Mike Lowell/Curt Schillilng Boston Red Sox circa 2007)

[OUReds]

The Diamondbacks last year actually had a -20 runs difference last year and went to the NL Championship series. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a +19 runs difference. So the Reds don't necessarily need to get to +62 runs to compete.

I did make a exception for phenomenal luck. If you PLAN to outperform your RS/RA that's what you are hoping for, luck.

As far as Dusty being worth 20 runs and Cordero 60 over the course of the year, I dunno what to tell you other then I think you are being ... overly optimistic. The rest of your equation has the Red's making a few tweaks to their rotation, and relying on better health. I would submit that the Red's actually were pretty lucky injury-wise last year overall, and that it isn't "safe" at all to assume that the rotation will improve next year on its own.

As far as Bedard's injury risk, I know he's had issues in the past, but his TJ surgery was 5 years ago, there is no reason for it to be any concern. We are talking about a pitcher who is well past the injury nexus, and who has pitched 196 and 182 innings the past two years. He is no more of an injury risk then other pitchers, and a lot less likely to hurt himself then Bailey or Cueto.

[757690]

*TCG quickly ducks* before getting smashed by hyperbole and random speculation...

1) The defense is still below average and the corner OFs are both horrendous.
2) 4/5 SP's are still unknown and are likely to be a combo of near washed up has been and a rookie with control problems...
3) Cordero's addition does not make the Reds an average bullpen by any stretch of the term. Weathers is old, Burton is still unproven, then what? Stanton? Majewski? Bray? McBeth? Salmon possibly makes the club? bring up Pelland? Where is the rest of the average bullpen, because I don't see them standing with the rest of the team...
4) Bruce/Votto/Bailey/Cueto even if they do ever reach their potential, it WILL NOT be this year! How fast can a team and their message boards sour on a prospect or a young player? Ask Todd Coffey.
5) Someone try to explain why (and without giving a Bruce projection similar to Bill James or saying that Cueto and Bailey will be as dominant as DougDirt thinks they will be) you possibly think that we can compete in the division this year.
6) Someone name me the last dominant Reds pitching prospect to be worth his hype after reaching the show.
7) As far as bailey goes... Depends too heavily on his fastball and barely can throw a changeup, let alone for strikes. However he has "been working" on it for the last 3 years... Walk rate is over 4 per 9IP and his K rate was below 6 last year. Way too many walks not even close to enough K's and thats before we mention the possible attitude problem in the works...
8) As far as cueto goes... Excellent command and nasty stuff but be honest with yourselves people... HE IS 5'10"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It has been debated over and over again but I'll take a guy with the longer stride and downward pitching angle over the short kid putting enormous strain on his arm with his midget man stride to home.
9) This whole thread angers me
10) Jeff Keppinger reminds me a lot of Chris Stynes... I don't trust him yet. Norris Hopper has NO pop in his bat at all. Its like a faster version of a typical 12 year old trying to bunt his way on in little league because he can't catch up to the 60mph heat that kids tossin his direction...




The biggest problem I have with everyone's theory to stay firm is that it depends on having all 5 of our top prospects (I'm including Hamilton. Half a season proves nothing to me) reach their respective ceilings within the next 3 years while we still have Harang/Arroyo in our control. Plus it assumes that EE will somehow finally blossom and reach his potential while BP must continue his current 30/30 exploits and possibly win a GG.


Go for Bedard now. Build a package around Bruce and make it happen! 2 years with Bedard to work out a LTC. Funny thing happens when your team wins, you tend to resign with them... see Mike Lowell/Curt Schillilng Boston Red Sox circa 2007)

Let me go point by point.

1) The defense is still below average and the corner OFs are both horrendous.

EE is vastly improved, Gonzo will be there for the whole year so he and Phillips will work better together. Yeah, the corner OF's are pretty bad.
But I didn't mention that the defense would be improved. Assuming it stays the same, that should not take runs away.


2) 4/5 SP's are still unknown and are likely to be a combo of near washed up has been and a rookie with control problems...

My point was that 3-5 was horrible last year. Even if the Reds use Belisle, Bailey and someone like Hernandez or Leiber, it will be an improvement over what the Reds had last year. Even if that trio had a combined 5.50 ERA, that Reds would gain 35 runs. If they had a 5.00 ERA, they would gain 65 runs. They don't need Bedard to make up a lot of runs, they just pitchers that don't suck.

3) Cordero's addition does not make the Reds an average bullpen by any stretch of the term. Weathers is old, Burton is still unproven, then what? Stanton? Majewski? Bray? McBeth? Salmon possibly makes the club? bring up Pelland? Where is the rest of the average bullpen, because I don't see them standing with the rest of the team...

This might be the most ridiculous statement ever made on this board. So if a pitcher has experience, he's too "old", but if he has a fresh young arm, than he is too "inexperienced." Cordero, Weathers, Burton, Bray, and Coutlangus make a pretty strong bullpen. History has shown that you only need three good arms to have a solid bullpen (nasty boys...Graves, White, Sullivan...). The Red can easily find three strong arms from what they have right now.

4) Bruce/Votto/Bailey/Cueto even if they do ever reach their potential, it WILL NOT be this year! How fast can a team and their message boards sour on a prospect or a young player? Ask Todd Coffey.

Votto showed what he can do last September. He may not be that strong for a full season, but Hatteburg can fill in if he falters. I made no other reference to the other three producing to their full potential in '08. In fact, I assumed that they would not, and that if Bailey is in the rotation, he just need to have a 5.00 to 5.50 ERA to be an improvement.

5) Someone try to explain why (and without giving a Bruce projection similar to Bill James or saying that Cueto and Bailey will be as dominant as DougDirt thinks they will be) you possibly think that we can compete in the division this year.

I just did in my previous post. What I said may not happen, but if very well could, and that is my only point. Not that the Reds will contend next year, but that it is easy to see how they could without giving up any of the big 5 for Bedard.

6) Someone name me the last dominant Reds pitching prospect to be worth his hype after reaching the show.


Good point, I respect your skepticism. But name me the last time the Reds had a pitching prospect that was in the top ten of all the major leagues, or the #1 prospect in all the major leagues. We are not talking about Pat Pacillo, Ty Howington's and Chris Gruler's here.

7) As far as bailey goes... Depends too heavily on his fastball and barely can throw a changeup, let alone for strikes. However he has "been working" on it for the last 3 years... Walk rate is over 4 per 9IP and his K rate was below 6 last year. Way too many walks not even close to enough K's and thats before we mention the possible attitude problem in the works...

Like I said before, the Reds could compete with Bailey having a growing pains year.

8) As far as cueto goes... Excellent command and nasty stuff but be honest with yourselves people... HE IS 5'10"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It has been debated over and over again but I'll take a guy with the longer stride and downward pitching angle over the short kid putting enormous strain on his arm with his midget man stride to home.

See Pedro Marinez, Billy Wagner, Tom Gordon, Bartolo Colon...
And I am assuming that Cueto remains in the minors for most, if not all of '08.

9) This whole thread angers me

Don't know what to say to that, maybe get some therapy, or stop posting? This is supposed to be fun.

10) Jeff Keppinger reminds me a lot of Chris Stynes... I don't trust him yet. Norris Hopper has NO pop in his bat at all. Its like a faster version of a typical 12 year old trying to bunt his way on in little league because he can't catch up to the 60mph heat that kids tossin his direction...

I have them as valuable backups, not starters, no need to trust them other than to provide depth. Every team needs role players.


Take a deep breath, relax and remember it is just a game.

And Merry Christmas!!!

[thatcoolguy_22]

lol cheers 757. i was just ranting

[Vada Pinson Fan]

The biggest mistake we could make is to trade all our top prospects for short-term gain.

Exactly right. I for one, want to watch and enjoy seeing these great, young players in a Cincinnati uniform for years to come. We haven't been blessed with this kind of talent since Eric Davis, Paul O'Neill, Kal Daniels & Barry Larkin came up in the mid to late 80's. Now add the fact that we have stud pitchers (as well as position players) coming up in Bailey, Cueto and to a lesser extent: Maloney. Why reward some other team with this kind of talent? Not to mention how great it will be to hold down the overall payroll with these guys on the Reds. This then allows for more money to be spent on free agents. You couldn't do this to any great extent if you traded 3 of these kids and had to pay Bedard an obscene amount of money once his contract expires.

Looking at some of the other posts on this thread- I'm surprised at the negativity and doubt some are saying here but that's ok b/c perhaps you haven't seen these guys play. I have except forCueto and Maloney. Just look at what Hamilton did when healthy. Look what Votto did in his September callup. These guys are the real deal!

I am more happy about the overall state of the Reds (but getting a #2 or #3 starting pitcher at this point would be nice for a far less demand than McPhail is asking for, for Bedard) than I have been since the 1999 season.
Have faith Reds fans. Castellini wants a winner and I think he has a strong (player) foundation already in place. No need for anything drastic. Patience, in 2008, please. In 2009- Lookout!!!!

[Hondo]

Do not trade Jay Bruce. It would be like the Royals trading Alex Gordon for a Starter. Alex Gordon is the FUTURE of the Royals as is Jay Bruce for the Reds!

Thanks

[Why Not?]

Hes had more injury problems that just last year dude.

He had an oblique injury in 2007, a knee issue in 2006 and the TJ before he got to the majors. It's noteworthy that he hasn't had arm issues since the TJ.

Some think Bedard's smallish frame will shorten his career (think Pedro Martinez). But it's debatable whether he's more of an injury risk than any other pitcher.