Thoughts on Reynolds starting today

[RedlegJake]

I like Reynolds. I like his stuff. I like that he is a ground ball pitcher. I think he CAN get ML hitters out consistently. I think he needs time and work. He won't be a #3 but has a good chance to be a #4 or 5. And the Reds need to see whether he's worth further investment before the offseason. He pitched poorly in SF. Really well in his next 2 outings against Mil and Col. Pretty bad in taking over for Cingrani. Yet you'd think he had thrown up 4 straight clunkers the way everyone groans about him. My guess is he has a good game against a fairly weak lineup. Dominant in AAA and this a lineup that is barely above that level.

[RED VAN HOT]

An additional and less important reason is that starting Reynolds also provides a further opportunity to evaluate bringing him back for starting pitching depth next year.

[Kc61]

I would start Latos tonight on regular rest. At this point every loss should be avoided and if Latos is ready tonight, I'd have him pitch. I wouldn't pitch Reynolds.

The only explanation I'd accept is that Latos hasn't been striking guys out lately. Maybe Price thinks the two days extra rest (Wedneday and Thursday) will be an important boost to his pitching. I'd accept this, particularly with the Pirates coming up.

Otherwise, if your top guys are ready, you let them pitch on regular rest at this point, regardless of opponent. You don't start an insurance pitcher in a pennant race unless absolutely necessary, even one as successful as Reynolds.

[dsmith421]

As I see it, they had two choices:

Choice A: Reynolds at Hou, Latos-Bailey-Arroyo at Pit, Cueto-Leake-Latos v Mets, Bailey-Arroyo-Cueto v Pit, Latos WCG

Choice B: Latos at Hou, Bailey-Arroyo-Cueto at Pit, Leake-Latos-Bailey v Mets, Arroyo-Cueto-Latos v Pit, Bailey WCG. (I'm assuming Leake would be skipped for the Sunday game with Latos going. If that game is irrelevant, than Leake starts Sunday and Latos the WCG).

Choice B has the benefit of all the remaining starts going to the Reds' top pitchers. If the Reds lose to Houston tonight and then miss a spot by a game, this would be a contributor.

Choice A gets everyone a bit of extra rest. It gets Bailey two night games (his day/night splits this year are ridiculous) and two starts against Pittsburgh (who he owns). It also sets Bailey up as a potential NLDS Game 1 starter. It puts Cueto up against New York for his next "rehab" start instead of a pressure-filled Sunday afternoon start in Pgh.

I can see the logic behind either option. Honestly Choice B would have been my expectation given Dusty's history. Choice A is something LaRussa would've done.

Hopefully Reynolds pitches well tonight and makes it a moot point. (Vegas likes the Reds at -155 even with Reynolds on the hill)

[Kc61]

It also sets Bailey up as a potential NLDS Game 1 starter. It puts Cueto up against New York for his next "rehab" start instead of a pressure-filled Sunday afternoon start in Pgh.

I can see the logic behind either option. Honestly Choice B would have been my expectation given Dusty's history. Choice A is something LaRussa would've done.

Hopefully Reynolds pitches well tonight and makes it a moot point. (Vegas likes the Reds at -155 even with Reynolds on the hill)

Keep in mind that Leake could pitch Sunday at Pitt instead of Cueto. JC could still pitch Monday. They could switch spots.

Leake pitched last night, his next regular day would be Sunday, four days rest.

[REDREAD]

As I see it, they had two choices:

Choice A: Reynolds at Hou, Latos-Bailey-Arroyo at Pit, Cueto-Leake-Latos v Mets, Bailey-Arroyo-Cueto v Pit, Latos WCG

Choice B: Latos at Hou, Bailey-Arroyo-Cueto at Pit, Leake-Latos-Bailey v Mets, Arroyo-Cueto-Latos v Pit, Bailey WCG. (I'm assuming Leake would be skipped for the Sunday game with Latos going. If that game is irrelevant, than Leake starts Sunday and Latos the WCG).

I think if it was totally up to me, and this was a computer game, I would do Choice B, with Latos going to the WC game. But obviously, this is not a computer game

I did look over Reynold's game logs. I didn't see every appearance he was in this year, so I was a bit biased in my memory. Basically, he's had two good appearances and two bad appearances. That makes me feel better about tonight.

As far as the division title goes, with so few games left, the odds of both Pitt and StL choking are pretty slim. I'd feel better about winning the division if we were in 2nd and the Cards were in 3rd. But I think we've sealed our fate as a WC team at this point. We might end up being the #1 WC though.

[Hoosier Red]

I guess I have a little bit different of an opinion.

Starting Reynolds (instead of Latos) today drastically reduces our chances of winning. They may still win the game, but this is almost a punt.

I'm ok with it. I don't think it matters much in the long term.
Not worried about the bullpen, we have Christani and other filler there to eat innings.

I am glad that they are giving Reynolds a start on the road though. It sure would suck to come to a Reds home game and see Reynolds starting.

Why aren't they letting Hamilton start? I think the Reds are conceding that his bat is not ready, plus they want Paul, Heisey, and Robinson to get at bats in case they are needed to hit in the postseason. Hamilton has played a few innings in blowouts (which is a good idea), but I kind of doubt he gets a start this year. Maybe I'm wrong.

In the big picture, I like how they are using the last 2 weeks of the season to prepare for the playoffs, as opposed to making a desperate push to win every game (thus potentially leaving the players gassed when the playoffs start).

I'm not sure I agree on either front a)I don't believe it drastically reduces the chances of winning, and b)I don't think I'd be particularly happy if it did.

I guess it all depends on the definition of drastic, but if we accept that any single game is a crapshoot, then the chances of the Reds winning go from overwhelming favorite to substantial favorite with the change in pitchers.

As to the 2nd point, there's definitely no reason to "punt" on games right now.
Winning the WC home field advantage is really not that much of a stretch. If the Reds win 4 of 6 against the Pirates, and are equal with Pittsburgh in the other 4 games, they would win the WC home field on account of the better head to head record. (This assumes of course that Pittsburgh wins the Thursday game to regain that 1/2).

Of course it does all have to be done within a larger context of not shooting all the bullets when you could have another month to play. And it doesn't make sense to do something reckless(like start the top 4 SP on 3 nights rest for the rest of the way.)

[REDREAD]

I guess it all depends on the definition of drastic, but if we accept that any single game is a crapshoot, then the chances of the Reds winning go from overwhelming favorite to substantial favorite with the change in pitchers.

I guess this is a difference in opinion. I don't think any given game is a crapshoot. If it were, it seems logical that over the course of the season, every team would average out to be .500

The Reds are 19-11 (.633) in games that Latos has started this year.
A lot of that has to do with Latos' skill.
What's Reynolds' upside? Best case scenerio, probably a few games under .500
Let's say the Reds would be 10-13 (.434) over an entire season in games he starts. I think that's optimistic. Even if you assume that the Reds could be .500 in games Reynolds starts, there's a pretty big difference in probablity the Reds win the game..

Yes, the fact that the Astros stink helps our chances of winning the games, but the crapshoot theory says that starting Reynolds' gives the Astros a very good chance of winning. Not sure if it's 50/50, but it suddenly is doable.

[Kc61]

I guess this is a difference in opinion. I don't think any given game is a crapshoot. If it were, it seems logical that over the course of the season, every team would average out to be .500

The Reds are 19-11 (.633) in games that Latos has started this year.
A lot of that has to do with Latos' skill.
What's Reynolds' upside? Best case scenerio, probably a few games under .500
Let's say the Reds would be 10-13 (.434) over an entire season in games he starts. I think that's optimistic. Even if you assume that the Reds could be .500 in games Reynolds starts, there's a pretty big difference in probablity the Reds win the game..

Yes, the fact that the Astros stink helps our chances of winning the games, but the crapshoot theory says that starting Reynolds' gives the Astros a very good chance of winning. Not sure if it's 50/50, but it suddenly is doable.

I agree completely with this very fine post.

To me, you just don't give the Astros a fighting chance. Sweeping on the road is tough. Latos has four days' rest, if he's ready, use him. Why give up that edge?

The Reds could still use Bailey (extra rest), Arroyo, and Leake (if need be) against the Bucs this weekend.

I do suspect that Price feels that extra rest for Latos and Bailey now is important. Notice how much they are resting Chapman, they don't even give him "stay sharp" appearances.

Maybe that's the big point here. Otherwise, I don't agree with the decision.

[lollipopcurve]

Let Reynolds pitch and give everybody extra rest. Latos has been lagging a little. Good to send the message of "no panic."

[Kc61]

It's kind of academic anyway, since Reynolds is pitching tonight.

I suspect Hoover, Lecure and Parra will be ready early if needed. Hope they have more luck than last time.

[_Sir_Charles_]

He'll be fine. And just if by some strange twist of fate Reynolds DOES struggle...we've got a bunch of arms in the pen that are VERY rested. But guys...relax. Have you so quickly forgotten the lineup that Houston sends out there on a nightly basis? Corky would be fine most likely. :O)

[PuffyPig]

THis has nothing to do with being nice to Reynolds and everytihng to do with setting up the rotation the way Dusty wants it, and giving rest to the rest of the rotation.

[LeDoux]

Any word on Cingrani? I am curious if he is likely done for the season or perhaps limited to bullpen duty.

[WildcatFan]

Wrong thread.