Baseball Prospectus Reds Top 11

[lollipopcurve]

I think it's a little early to be proclaiming what Hamilton's ceiling is. He was never a full-time baseball player in HS like a lot of these kids coming up now. He was a 3-sport kid with off-the-charts athleticism. He's just learning how to switch hit. While he's very skinny, he's also a six-footer, so there's a chance he'll add some strength to a frame that could leverage more power than folks see right now.

Lot of room for growth with this player, still. Goldstein is just being optimistic, not unreasonable.

[dougdirt]

Yeah, but what are the odds that he sticks at short. From what I've read, they're slim. I have no doubt that he can improve his foot work and his hands. But he has a very mediocre arm, and that's not a good thing for short. Personally, I'd prefer it if they moved him to either second or center RIGHT NOW and give him the time he needs to get acclimated to the positions. Otherwise, we're going to end up going through the same hoops we did with Yonder, Francisco & Frazier, high-end prospects with no settled positions.

Hamilton has an arm that is fine for shortstop when it comes to arm strength. He needs to continue to work on his throws, but arm strength is NOT a reason he will move off of the position. Moving him off of shortstop would be a giant mistake IMO.

[dougdirt]

Your ceiling looks a little like Jose Reyes ... lower average, but higher OBA, slightly lower SLG. Although Reyes never really hit for power, he does get a lot of triples.

Jose Reyes has a lot more power than Hamilton will have. Reyes hit 18 HR's in a season once. I would be incredibly surprised if Hamilton ever hit 18 in any two combined seasons.

[mth123]

It's all about the ceiling, mth.

That's the discussion here.

Well, I think 60 extra base hits every year is well above his ceiling. Its 3 stories up, through the roof and hovering 100 feet above his ceiling IMO. Hope I'm wrong. I love me some base stealers in the mold of Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ty Cobb and Lou Brock, but its not because they steal bases. Without the OBP and Slugging, they would look more like Gary Pettis, Otis Nixon or, dare I say it, Willy Taveras. There is a place for that. It can even be pretty useful with a few seasons above average. But its just not number 1 prospect material IMO.

Hope I'm wrong. The Reds could always use a player of the caliber you are suggesting. I'd love to see it.

[mdccclxix]

One thing I like about Hamilton is that he set his sights on 100 SB's and got there. 8 sb's in the final 3 games to pull it out. That says something about his will power and performance under pressure. Add to that his strong overall finish after struggling to start the year. Certainly an easy player to love and root for. He'll have Reds fans swooning if he can take over SS in full stead in 2014.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Hamilton has an arm that is fine for shortstop when it comes to arm strength. He needs to continue to work on his throws, but arm strength is NOT a reason he will move off of the position. Moving him off of shortstop would be a giant mistake IMO.

Really? I find that surprising. Everytime I've seen him, I've been extemely underwhelmed with his arm. But I'm sure you've seen him much more than I have.

I would just hate to leave him there if it looks like he's not cut out for it only to have to switch him late (AAA or MLB) and then re-start the learning curve. Hopefully I just saw him during bad performances. I've seen him about 6 or 7 times and while his range looked beyond excellent, his foot work, his hands and definitely his arm looked like they needed major work.

[757690]

Concerning the Coleman/Hamilton comparison:

Hamilton could end up being worse than Coleman, but in terms of talent, the two really aren't very close. They only thing they share is speed.

Vince wasn't a gifted athlete, he just was fast. With all his speed, he couldn't make it as a wide receiver in football, and instead was the team's kicker, although he was a good one. If you watched him play, he was anything but athletic or graceful, more awkward and klutzy. He also wasn't much of a student of the game.

Hamilton is a much stronger all around athlete, who could star in many different sports. That doesn't mean much in baseball if you can't get on base, but if he works hard, he has the ability to be a much better overall player than Coleman ever could be.

[Orenda]

His ceiling is absolutely Juan Pierre at the plate. defensively, IMO it's too soon to say what his ceiling is as he's just to raw a defender. Ozzie Smith never stole 100 bases at any level in his life. He capped out at 57. Twice. Pierre led the league three times had more than 50 5 times, and had 151 SB's in three minor league seasons. So, Hamilton's speed is beyond elite. But the power is similar, as in none.

As much as BA is denigrated on this board, with a player like Hamilton, it's kinda important. Kid needs hits. period. He's never going to hit 10 HR's in a season, probably will never hit 5. His doubles will be speed aided, singles into doubles. He can lead a league in triples with his speed. But he needs to just hit. If the walks he got at Dayton are any indication, If he maintains that or improves slightly, then he needs to hit .280.

No, he's not the Reds top prospect. Just a really interesting one.

Can power and strength be developed? He's listed at 160, if in 2 or 3 years he's 190 (not that weight indicates strength) he might be able to fast twitch 10 hr's a season playing in GABP, assuming he has the skill of consistently squaring up baseballs.

[RedsManRick]

I compared him to a pre-1985 Tim Raines, fwiw, though, as doug rightly points out, the Ks don't match up. There just aren't that many people who have ever had Hamilton's skill set and played professional baseball.

Do you like Lou Brock as a SS better?

How about Brett Gardner with an extra 50 SB at SS?

Kenny Lofton?

Brock, Raines and Lofton all had much more power than Hamilton does. Gardner (and Raines and Lofton) had much better plate discipline. Lofton and a guy like Pierre made much more contact.

The best comp I've found is Michael Bourn. Like Bourn, he might hit a wall-scraper or two, but most of his extra-base hits will come from his legs. He might actually put up some decent SLG due to the the triples, but they won't be from the kinds of hits that drive in base-runners from 1st. Accordingly, much of his offensive value will come from his BABIP. I'm curious about his bunting ability, because that could be a very big boon to his OBP.

His speed will have such a multiplier effect on his OBP, that I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up a replacement level .260/.320/.350 one year and then a 4-5 WAR .320/.380/.440 the next.

[AtomicDumpling]

Bourn seems like a good comp to me. I would suggest that Hamilton's upside is higher than Bourn though because Hamilton still has a lot of developing to do. He just hasn't played that much baseball yet. He is still in the early stages of learning how to play this game. I think Hamilton can reach Bourn's level pretty easily. His upside is higher than that, but I don't think he will ever hit for power and frankly I hope he doesn't try to hit for power. It hurts me to say that because I love me some power hitting and I think speed is usually overrated. Hamilton is not your normal speedster though. I have some interesting comments about Hamilton on my website linked in my signature, and am also developing an extended article on Hamilton's comparison to his HOF namesake.

[IslandRed]

I think it's a little early to be proclaiming what Hamilton's ceiling is. He was never a full-time baseball player in HS like a lot of these kids coming up now. He was a 3-sport kid with off-the-charts athleticism. He's just learning how to switch hit. While he's very skinny, he's also a six-footer, so there's a chance he'll add some strength to a frame that could leverage more power than folks see right now.

Let's just think about one thing you said: "learning to switch hit." Seriously, who does that anymore? I don't mean switch-hitting itself, although that's rare enough nowadays. I mean, what highly-drafted players go through that kind of extreme makeover that soon after turning pro?

Here's who: projects. Truth is, for the reasons you stated, he was every bit the project one of those 17-year-old Latin American kids would be, and the Reds are treating him accordingly. He was basically a very fast blank slate the club is trying to mold into a baseball player. Given that, it may be possible to sort of tell how he stacks up today, but it's nearly impossible to say how much more he can improve. And the latter is what's going to define his career, if he has one.

So, yeah, ranking him among the best prospects in baseball right now is absurd. Unless it turns out not to be. Who knows at this point?