Are the '09 Reds a star-crossed team?

[RedEye]

Yes, Jay Bruce's fractured wrist last night now has me writing something I've thought about writing here for awhile.

I know you could make the argument that this team is actually playing right up (or down) to its potential. A lot of people predicted a .500 season from these guys, and that's pretty much what they're giving us, right? If you are convinced of this, you should probably avoid reading the rest of this post.

Thing is, I can't help having the gnawing feeling that there is something rotten at GABP this year. The team started the season with so much untapped potential, even got off on the right foot for awhile there, but then just about everyone got leveled by injury after injury: Edwin has a chipped wrist; Votto suffers a killer flu and a mysterious psychological condition; Volquez throws out his back and then his arm; Phillips plays through a fractured finger (one that I still expect to bark at some point in the second half); Bruce dives his otherwise stout body into oblivion; even Cueto shows alarming signs of wear and tear. Sure, injuries are part of the game... but doesn't it just seem like this team--and particularly its promising young core--have suffered more than their share already?

Please excuse such a wildly unscientific post. I just feel like there is something, well, wildly unscientific (call it fate or destiny or whatever) about the 2009 Reds. It's sort of the opposite of the feeling I had about the 1990 Reds when I was 14. And I'm wondering if anyone else feels the same.

[westofyou]

Please excuse such a wildly unscientific post. I just feel like there is something, well, wildly unscientific (call it fate or destiny or whatever) about the 2009 Reds. It's sort of the opposite of the feeling I had about the 1990 Reds when I was 14. And I'm wondering if anyone else feels the same.

The 1989 Reds were a mess, you expected to open the p[aper that season and get nothing but bad news, and that was grating because they were so close to getting to the top in the prior seasons.

[redsmetz]

This is akin to what I was writing elsewhere this morning. Despite some poor crafting of this roster (wishing to buy a year of further development throughout the organization), it would have been interesting to see what this club could have done without all the time out for key players. Maybe we need someone to go get some good karma or something for this team. It's been one thing after another.

[Falls City Beer]

Lots of teams deal with lots of injuries. The Reds at full strength were at best a .500 team, now they're dipping to the low end of their expected range. They'll probably win about 75 games. They need a boatload of talent before they contend.

Roy Halladay would go a long way to mending their ills.

[westofyou]

Lots of teams deal with lots of injuries. The Reds at full strength were at best a .500 team, now they're dipping to the low end of their expected range. They'll probably win about 75 games. They need a boatload of talent before they contend.

Roy Halladay would go a long way to mending their ills.

Yeah, it was a tightrope walk at the start, but injuries equal fatigue and wind to the walker in this case.

[Hap]

The 1989 Reds were a mess, you expected to open the paper that season and get nothing but bad news, and that was grating because they were so close to getting to the top in the prior seasons.

ditto for 1991 and 1993....

[Kc61]

Roy Halladay would go a long way to mending their ills.

Halladay on the Reds? Wouldn't that require an expenditure of funds?

[Falls City Beer]

Halladay on the Reds? Wouldn't that require an expenditure of funds?

I know and you know it ain't gonna happen.

But what's so unbelievably galling is that a stiff like Arroyo is making $12 million next year, which is not far off from what Halladay's making. Who on earth thought it was a good idea to give ace money to a 3/4 pitcher? Griffey, Milton, Arroyo--one miscalculation after another.

[RedEye]

The 1989 Reds were a mess, you expected to open the p[aper that season and get nothing but bad news, and that was grating because they were so close to getting to the top in the prior seasons.

Ah yes, I do remember that team. I was in my third year of serious Red fandom at the time (Eric Davis and Barry Larkin basically ushered me onto the bandwagon that I've been on ever since). '89 was, if I remember correctly, one of Davis's greatest--34 HR and 101 RBI in the middle of a lineup of Whitey Richardsons and Scottie Madisons. Am I on track with that?

[RedEye]

Lots of teams deal with lots of injuries. The Reds at full strength were at best a .500 team, now they're dipping to the low end of their expected range. They'll probably win about 75 games. They need a boatload of talent before they contend.

I know lots of teams deal with injuries. I was expecting health problems for some of the team's key players this year. I guess I just wasn't expecting injuries to all of their key players. At this point, only Cueto, Harang and the bullpen (save Bray) have managed to make it through unscathed (knock on wood).

[Hap]

Ah yes, I do remember that team. I was in my third year of serious Red fandom at the time (Eric Davis and Barry Larkin basically ushered me onto the bandwagon that I've been on ever since). '89 was, if I remember correctly, one of Davis's greatest--34 HR and 101 RBI in the middle of a lineup of Whitey Richardsons and Scottie Madisons. Am I on track with that?

not exactly

The 1989 team was basically the same as the 1990 team, only without Hal Morris and Billy Hatcher.

The bullpen had John Franco instead of Randy Myers but was not as deep and not as consistent.

Every key regular player on that team was on the DL at some point, except for Todd Benzinger, with Larkin and Sabo being the biggest losses.

Danny Jackson and Jose Rijo followed their outstanding years from 1988 with injuries and inconsistency.

[RedEye]

not exactly

The 1989 team was basically the same as the 1990 team, only without Hal Morris and Billy Hatcher.

The bullpen had John Franco instead of Randy Myers but was not as deep and not as consistent.

Every key regular player on that team was on the DL at some point, except for Todd Benzinger, with Larkin and Sabo being the biggest losses.

Danny Jackson and Jose Rijo followed their outstanding years from 1988 with injuries and inconsistency.

Right, I know... but wasn't that also the year that said players on the DL were replaced by a bunch of AAAA-type retreads (Scottie Madison, Whitey Richardson, Van Snider)? Or am I confusing them with a mid-1990s team?

[Big Klu]

Right, I know... but wasn't that also the year that said players on the DL were replaced by a bunch of AAAA-type retreads (Scottie Madison, Whitey Richardson, Van Snider)? Or am I confusing them with a mid-1990s team?

You remember it correctly. That was also the year that Luis Quiñones hit 12 homers while filling in at 2B and 3B, and Rolando Roomes was doing his Eric Davis-Lite impression in the OF. Ken Griffey Sr. had a decent season in limited playing time in LF, and Joel Youngblood and Dave Collins also saw action in the OF.

[PuffyPig]

Lots of teams deal with lots of injuries. The Reds at full strength were at best a .500 team, now they're dipping to the low end of their expected range. They'll probably win about 75 games. They need a boatload of talent before they contend.

It's hard to image that the Reds "at full strength" would be worth only 1.5 more wins to date. Surely full, healthy seasons from Votto, Volquez etc. would be worth more than that. We were a .500 team a short time ago with many injuries.

[Falls City Beer]

We were a .500 team a short time ago with many injuries.

And that trajectory is heading down a slope.