Is JJ Hardy a good ceiling comp for Zack Cozart?

[Benihana]

Both are slick fielding, low OBP guys with a good amount of pop. Cozart has the better glove where Hardy has more pop. Neither is likely to OBP much over .310. Their minor league numbers look similar, granted Hardy cracked the bigs at a younger age.

Is JJ Hardy who we should be hoping Zack Cozart becomes? If he doesn't make big strides toward that in 2014, should we look to sign Hardy this offseason?

[Chuckie]

Nope. Not even close. Hardy has exponentially more power than Cozart. Even with the advantages Cozart has defensively, overall he's still a much-worse player than Hardy. Much-lower ceiling.

[RedEye]

Is Cozart really better defensively? I was of the impression that Hardy was darn good.

[Chuckie]

Is Cozart really better defensively? I was of the impression that Hardy was darn good.

Hardy is solid, but Cozart is better defensively. However, Hardy blows Cozy away offensively. (Which, admittedly, isn't all that difficult to do.)

[Marc D]

Zach Cozart has nearly 1,300 PA of .280 OBP performance under his belt. Where does this notion that he's going to turn into a good hitter come from?

All you have to do is watch him try and hit, his pitch recognition skills are Stubbsian. That isn't all of a sudden going to fix itself.

[Crumbley]

Hardy had 26 HR during his age 24 season, Cozart has 29 for his career.

[RedEye]

Hardy is solid, but Cozart is better defensively. However, Hardy blows Cozy away offensively. (Which, admittedly, isn't all that difficult to do.)

Not sure about that. Here's what FanGraphs has to say about Hardy:

J.J. Hardy hits a lot of homers, 77 over the last three seasons, by far the most of any shortstop. He combines that with consistently excellent defense at a particularly valuable position, and he rarely strikes out, making contact 87.8 percent of the time last season. Those are great attributes for a shortstop to have, and yet he’s never talked about among the truly elite of the game, because getting on base is important, and Hardy is particularly bad at that. He’s a perfect example of a player for whom BABIP is a skill and not just luck, because as someone who isn’t especially fast and hits the ball in the air nearly 40 percent of the time, his BABIP has been below .300 in every year of his career save for one. That’s not luck. That’s who he is. It’s still good enough to be No. 7 on this list, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

And here's what they say about Cozart:

Cozart does one thing extremely well, and that’s field baseballs. Given that this is shortstop and not, say, first base, that’s enough for him to have a job in the major leagues. He does a second thing somewhat well — 27 homers over the last two years is nice enough out of the shortstop position — and the combination makes him roughly a league-average shortstop. He’s not going to be better than that simply because he has no ability to get on base, thanks to limited plate discipline and a proclivity to hitting grounders without the elite speed needed to turn them into hits.

They have Hardy at a 6.3 rating for D and Cozart at 4.2 (#7 overall and #22 overall respectively at their position on overall skill). Now, I know FG isn't the be all and the end all, and maybe I'm misunderstanding something, but D looks like a wash here with a clear advantage on O for Hardy.

[Chuckie]

I don't buy into that. Cozart is better defensively, IMO. Defensive stats are so hard to accurately measure. It's the ultimate eyeball test.

[RedsManRick]

Zack Cozart is 28 years old. It's unlikely his ceiling is much higher than anything he's already done. Guys that don't reach the majors until age 26 aren't generally hiding another level of performance.

A peak season for Cozart, including good BABIP luck, probably looks like an average JJ Hardy season -- something like .280/.320/.440. But that's luck included, not true talent.

[Tony Cloninger]

I actually had hopes he could come close to Hardy as a hitter..... but Hardly.

[757690]

Let's try trading Cozart for Carlos Gomez and see how that works

[RedEye]

I don't buy into that. Cozart is better defensively, IMO. Defensive stats are so hard to accurately measure. It's the ultimate eyeball test.

I'm not saying that these measures are 100% accurate, but they do give more information than just an eyeball test. Just because they are not perfect does not mean you can throw them out. And everything I've read elsewhere says that both Cozart and Hardy are excellent. So... yeah. I don't think that Cozart is clearly better. Except maybe in your eyes. Which is fine.

[cincinnati chili]

He's less valuable than Hardy, and I happen to think Hardy is vastly overrated. Cozart is heading for a third straight year with a sub .290 on base percentage. Great-glove, no-bat middle infielders are obtainable for next to nothing every offseason. Unless the Reds believe Cozart will blossom into a better hitter (I'm skeptical), then he's been a colossal waste of our time.

[PuffyPig]

While I agree with all the comments being made on this thread with respect to Cozart's ceiling, don't forget that SS in MLB aren't particularly good hitters.

Cozart is an average major league SS, and those aren't available for next to nothing. Guys like Santiago/Izturis were available for next to nothing. As a UFA, Cozart would likely get a multi-year deal for $5M per season from some team looking to stabilize their SS situation.

J J Hardy has averaged a 3.6 WAR over the last 3 years. He's a pretty good SS.

[dwyerbrg]

He's less valuable than Hardy, and I happen to think Hardy is vastly overrated. Cozart is heading for a third straight year with a sub .290 on base percentage. Great-glove, no-bat middle infielders are obtainable for next to nothing every offseason. Unless the Reds believe Cozart will blossom into a better hitter (I'm skeptical), then he's been a colossal waste of our time.

Except the Reds are paying him next to nothing. So that, to me, doesn't qualify as a colossal waste of time.