Trade Proposal

[roby]

There are rumors floating around that the Marlins might want to trade Hanley Ramirez. The Reds need a good hitter and a shortstop. Here's my proposal, knowing that the Marlins are always wanting prospects...

Yonder Alonso, Juan Francisco, Matt Maloney, Chris Valaika, and Bill Bray
for Hanley Ramirez. (I would try to get them to take Willie Taveras as well, but I doubt it.

How realistic is this trade? I know somebody will say, 'they would want Cueto, Frazier or Bruce' but I wouldn't do that. I think the offer above sends a lot of young talent their way. What do you think?

[Alpha Zero]

Let me preface this by saying that I can't see the Reds making any major acquisitions of post-arbitration guys due to payroll constraints, but I'll go ahead and play along since this is just for the sake of interesting discussion.

First of all, I think that your package looks okay from a talent standpoint, but I think that the Marlins will be looking for a SP prospect with more upside than Maloney in return. I'm thinking Alonso, Francisco, Valaika, and Wood would be a decent starting point, but I'm not really sure.

In all honesty though, I don't think that Hanley would be worth that kind of bounty given the fact that his contract escalates very quickly, which could hamstring a small market club like the Reds. If the Front Office were willing to increase payroll to the $100 MM range, you might be able to convince me to change my mind, but that won't be happening any time soon.

[tbball10]

I think the Reds would have to give up Bruce, Votto, Bailey, or Cueto + prospects to get Hanley. I would not be interested in that.

[roby]

Let me preface this by saying that I can't see the Reds making any major acquisitions of post-arbitration guys due to payroll constraints, but I'll go ahead and play along since this is just for the sake of interesting discussion.

First of all, I think that your package looks okay from a talent standpoint, but I think that the Marlins will be looking for a SP prospect with more upside than Maloney in return. I'm thinking Alonso, Francisco, Valaika, and Wood would be a decent starting point, but I'm not really sure.

In all honesty though, I don't think that Hanley would be worth that kind of bounty given the fact that his contract escalates very quickly, which could hamstring a small market club like the Reds. If the Front Office were willing to increase payroll to the $100 MM range, you might be able to convince me to change my mind, but that won't be happening any time soon.

I think that by the time his contract escalates too much, Harang and Arroyo will be off the books. That is also why I wanted to try to include WT in the trade.

[GIDP]

We should know that the Reds will never be a buyer of young talent.

[Alpha Zero]

I think that by the time his contract escalates too much, Harang and Arroyo will be off the books. That is also why I wanted to try to include WT in the trade.

You're right, Harang and Arroyo will be off the books; however, Votto, Bruce, Cueto, and Volquez will all be arbitration eligible. If the Reds want to retain those players long term, Hanley's contract would likely impair their ability to accomplish that goal. I don't know what the Reds' long range plans are, but I think that Ramirez's ballooning contract would force the Reds to deal away the quality homegrown guys. I don't want to see that happen.

[mdccclxix]

If the Marlins are not in a position to keep Hanley, then the Reds really aren't that much better off, unless payroll goes up around 85 mil, which is reasonable now that I think of it.

[mdccclxix]

Hanley and Josh Johnson for Alonso, Coco, Yorman, and Cueto?

I'm not in too much to Cueto, so I wouldn't consider him untouchable. Only problem with this deal is that the Reds just got a lot more expensive a lot quicker. You'd probably want to unload one of the talked about 3 (Coco, Arroyo, Harang), so I figure sending Coco at 75% off could work out.

SS would finally be solved long term though, yay!!!!!Remember what it was like to have Larkin, mmmmm, nice memories.

[Vottomatic]

I don't want Hanley simply because his contract will continue to escalate and hamstring this team financially.

He is a great player, and if his contract escalated to around $12M per year instead of $16M per year, I'd be interested.

For discussion's sake..........I think Yonder is the starting point for any trade that works for both sides. The Reds have Votto firmly entrenched at 1B. Unless Yonder becomes a George Brett type hitter (.330+ yearly, 40 doubles, 20 HR's), I see no reason in keeping him because this organization is about strong defense, which is his liability. While I wish we could see how Francisco continues to progress, I think any trading partner should be glad to have him. Alonso-Francisco is very strong in terms of prospects. A strong part of me would like to give Francisco and Heisey another season to see if they continue to dominate triple A and get a shot at the majors with us, and succeed. Because if Bruce struggles again, I might want to keep Francisco or Heisey and trade Bruce. Just my feeling about it.

I'd really like to keep everything in place for this upcoming year, barring a minor trade. Arroyo and Harang's contracts are up after this season and everything will begin to change again in terms of the roster. But this season could be surprising.

[mattfeet]

I don't want Hanley simply because his contract will continue to escalate and hamstring this team financially.

He is a great player, and if his contract escalated to around $12M per year instead of $16M per year, I'd be interested.

For discussion's sake..........I think Yonder is the starting point for any trade that works for both sides. The Reds have Votto firmly entrenched at 1B. Unless Yonder becomes a George Brett type hitter (.330+ yearly, 40 doubles, 20 HR's), I see no reason in keeping him because this organization is about strong defense, which is his liability. While I wish we could see how Francisco continues to progress, I think any trading partner should be glad to have him. Alonso-Francisco is very strong in terms of prospects. A strong part of me would like to give Francisco and Heisey another season to see if they continue to dominate triple A and get a shot at the majors with us, and succeed. Because if Bruce struggles again, I might want to keep Francisco or Heisey and trade Bruce. Just my feeling about it.

I'd really like to keep everything in place for this upcoming year, barring a minor trade. Arroyo and Harang's contracts are up after this season and everything will begin to change again in terms of the roster. But this season could be surprising.

Good post.

Fact of the matter is, ownership won't make a drastic move this off-season, nor is anyone expecting them to. Would we like for them to, sure, but it won't happen. We have a VERY good team full of young talent. Some people say those last 40 games of the season don't matter going into 2010, but I disagree. We had a great run at the end and I really hope it brought our team closer together and showed them what we (may) be capable of. Im willing to ride this one out for 2010. My thoughts below:

-No blockbuster trades are going to happen
-WillyT will NOT be moved. He's too much baggage. He'll be used sparingly and in pinch situations (read: running for pitchers).
-Rolen and Votto will both hit for over .300 w/ BP coming in at .285
-Votto/BP will have 30+HR, Rolen at 22,
-Heisey/Janish/Bruce will poke a .230-.255 number and do great defensively
-We'll finish 2nd in the division, about 4 games back to StL

Nothing unrealistic, IMO


Happy holidays,
Matt

[Redsfan320]

Nice post, Matt. I find it pretty realistic, although it would be nice if Heisey bats around .270 at least.

320

[mattfeet]

Likewise Ill be floored if Janish hits .250. A boy can hope...

-Matt

[texasdave]

This is the year of the Bruce. A .280 average minimum.

As far as Tavares is concerned can this club afford the luxury of a 4 million dollar pinch runner? I know he can't be moved, but that seems to be a waste of a roster spot to me.
I hope he is DFA very soon.

[mattfeet]

Thats the only move we'll see Taveras taking. Youre right in that we have others who are just as capable of running 90' at a time at a significantly reduced cost.

-Matt

[roby]

One thing that aggravates me about the Reds...you wait and wait for a good team, and when they get close they can't finish the job. Hanley Ramirez would instantly put this team in contention. He would also provide enough excitement to sell tickets and fill the ballpark. Reds fans are just waiting for a reason to get excited about this team...but no one is giving them one. It seems like they have programmed their fans into thinking like losers. 'Oh,we can't afford that.' or 'The Reds would never do that.' Despite what the Cubs say, there's nothing loveable about losing! I say go get Hanley and win some ball games.